Edmonton Oilers’ forward Jeff Skinner’s preseason may have been quiet with zero points, but he’s come alive in the regular season, emerging as one of the Oilers’ most productive forwards. With three points in four games and a couple of would-be assists that got erased due to disallowed goals, his performance in the first few games was strong enough to earn him Oilers’ Performer of the Week.

Skinner has scored only one goal, but he’s ripped two off the crossbar so far, and his ability to read the play and get to the right places near the net shows why he’s potted 358 career NHL goals. With that in mind, let’s look at what a successful season looks like for the first-year Oiler.

Throughout his career, Skinner has been a high-volume shooter, and he regularly found himself among the leaders in shots on goal for the Buffalo Sabres over the last three seasons. In 2021-22, the Toronto, ON native led the Sabres with 262 shots on net, scoring 33 goals. The following season, he finished second on the team with 242 shots while increasing his goal total to 35 and last season, his shot count dipped slightly to 211, resulting in 24 goals.

The Oilers’ leader in shots on goal last season was Zach Hyman with 290, Connor McDavid second with 263, and Evander Kane third with 220. A good target for Skinner would be to finish among the top three on the team this season, aiming for around 250 shots on net. He currently boasts a 7% shooting percentage, but for comparison, his career average sits at 11.2%. If he can raise it to that level and put around 250 shots on net, he’d score around 25 goals this season, which should be seen as a success.

At the same time, he needs to find a balance between taking a ton of shots, which usually includes some low-percentage ones, and looking to set up a teammate for potentially a better play. Skinner spent a good chunk of the preseason and the first two regular-season games playing alongside Leon Draisaitl, but the chemistry didn’t immediately click as Oilers fans had hoped. As a result, he was moved to the top line with McDavid, where he quickly found success, scoring early against the Calgary Flames on Oct. 13.

That said, one possible reason for the slower chemistry between Skinner and Draisaitl could be because the centerman may lean towards having wingers who are very aggressive on the forecheck, like when he was paired with Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele for stretches last season. Their aggressiveness allowed them to retrieve the puck and get it back to Draisaitl, where he could then slow things down to set up a play with better-scoring potential. However, Skinner didn’t exactly follow that pattern. After gaining possession, he’d sometimes try to feed the puck back to his former Hart Trophy-winning centerman. Yet, more often than not, he attempted a one-on-one move or took a low-percentage shot on net. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it’s likely not what Draisaitl prefers from his wingers.

Nonetheless, Skinner seemed much more comfortable on McDavid’s wing against the Flames last Sunday, likely gaining confidence from scoring early. That goal probably relieved some of the pressure to find the back of the net—pressure that had been building ever since the former six-time 30-goal scorer signed in Oil Country.

It seemed like after Skinner scored his first goal, he settled down, and from that point on, he found the right mix of shooting while also looking to make better plays with higher scoring potential—even when shuffled between different line combos.

A great example was when Skinner feathered a perfect pass on Derek Ryan‘s goal against the Flames, which was unfortunately waved off due to it being offside. Additionally, he was placed on a line with Connor Brown and Adam Henrique against the Philadelphia Flyers, and the trio displayed great chemistry throughout the game, with Skinner setting up Brown with a slick pass for a one-timer, leading to the Oilers’ second goal of the night.

Looking ahead, his offensive success this season will depend on his ability to put the puck on net but also on finding a balance playing within the Oilers’ brand of hockey, where highly skilled plays emerge when everything is clicking.

Skinner is currently averaging around 35 seconds of power play time per game through four games. It’s a small sample size, but it’s a significant drop from last season when he averaged around 2:37 minutes with the Sabres, tallying eight PP goals and four assists. The season prior, when he set a career-high 82 points, he averaged 3:26 of power play time per game, producing 21 power play points, meaning he’s used to being on the top power-play unit, a chance he’s unlikely to get with the Oilers.

On that note, the majority of his points will need to come at 5v5 this season. Last year, he recorded 46 points, with 34 of them coming at even strength. While the 32-year-old may be slightly past his prime NHL years, he’s still very highly skilled and between McDavid, Draisaitl and Henrique, he’ll play alongside a quality centerman this season. That said, a 55-60-point season should be considered a success for Skinner, especially since, as mentioned, the bulk of those points will come at 5v5. Still, with the way he’s been buzzing around the net the last couple of games, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he surpassed that estimate by a wide margin.

Overall, the former 40-goal scorer has not only shown a knack for the net but he’s also proven he’s willing to defend his teammates, like when he rushed to McDavid’s aid after he was roughed up against the Flames. It’s still very early, but if he keeps up this level of play, these are exactly the kinds of contributions the Oilers need, which could bring Skinner one step closer to his first taste of the postseason. With that in mind, what are your point projections for Skinner this year?

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