The dust has settled. The locker room was cleaned out. Now it’s time for Stan Bowman and his staff to get to work on getting the Edmonton Oilers to take the final step. Not just getting back to the Stanley Cup Final, but finally accomplishing the ultimate goal of bringing a championship back to Edmonton. I’m glad that’s not my job to do because the pressure to get over the hump will be coming from all angles.
Heading into his first full offseason as the Oilers general manager, there’s plenty of pressure on Stan Bowman to make some moves that improve a roster that was two wins away from the Stanley Cup. Not only did the Oilers lose to the Panthers again, but they got demolished for huge chunks of a series that felt like a clear step backward from the previous year. When asked about what he needs to do to improve the team, Oilers’ GM Stan Bowman gave us a peek into what he’s thinking.
“Looking at our team, the area with probably the least amount of change will be the defence. I think we have some players under contract who played very well. I really liked the way our defence played this season. I think they did a good job. They grew as the season went on. I thought they were really important to where we were getting to the Final, so I think probably won’t be big changes there.”
When you think about who is already locked in (Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Jake Walman, Troy Stecher, Ty Emberson, soon to be Evan Bouchard), it’s easy to see why there won’t be much difference on defence. And while I know there’s a sizable chunk of Oilers fans who hope No. 25 can or will be moved, I just can’t see it happening, given his full no-move clause and his relationship with the other core players. I understand the logic, I just can’t see it happening, you know? Either way, it was clear that Bowman seemed satisfied with his defensive group and blatantly said as much. The same could not be said for the forward group.
“I think up front, we need some different players, and we’re going to look at everything because I think now is the time when you have to look at your forwards, your D, and your goalies and see how we can get better. Sometimes, it’s just an incremental difference where I wouldn’t expect wholesale changes. We’re not going to have nine or 10 new players, but I do think we will have some changes. We’ll have to look at probably more likely the forwards and the goalies as the ones we’re going to evaluate the deepest.”
Given how the Stanley Cup Final played out, working on the forwards and goaltending isn’t precisely a surprising game plan from the general manager. The Oilers were outscored and out-goaltended in four of six games, and it doesn’t take a data scientist or pretty graphs and spreadsheets to figure out why that’s a problem. For the second straight post-season, the Oilers finished their run with sub-.900 goaltending, and it’s pretty tough to win with numbers like that. Outside of getting McDavid locked up, finding an upgrade in net is probably the most important thing on the to-do list, and I’m fascinated to know how that situation shakes out.
“I don’t want to single the goaltending out. I think it’s something we’ll look at and investigate to determine the best path moving forward for our team. It’s tough to predict where that’s going to go. We have to have a lot of conversations about what other teams are looking to do, and eventually, we’ll come up with the best approach for our team that we think will give us the best chance next year. And I’m not going to handicap what that’s going to look like because it’s. It’s really too early to tell right now.”
All I know for sure is that the goaltending questions will only get louder as the offseason continues, and it will be the decision Stan Bowman makes in net that will be heavily scrutinized — and rightfully so. We can’t keep going into the most important games of the year without knowing what we’re going to get between the pipes. My way-too-early prediction is that Bowman brings someone in that can challenge Stuart Skinner for the #1 job. Whoever that goaltender is, I don’t think we’re going to get someone that everyone looks at as the heir apparent for the position. Younger guy? More seasoned veteran? It’s a huge decision.
“I think there’s a benefit in the youthful enthusiasm, having a couple of younger players. You don’t want to have a young player just because he’s young. But I think having some guys who can show a progression to their game over a season. They start at one level in October. By the time you get to March and April, their game has improved. That’s how you can show your team is getting better in the season, if you have a couple of players like that. Because usually the veteran players kind of maintain their level, but the older players they’re trying to maintain it. They don’t want it to drop.”
I think it’s safe to say there were more than a few instances over the year when the Oilers looked a little bit slow. There were times when you noticed not having Dylan Holloway, Warren Foegele, and Ryan McLeod’s wheels through the neutral zone, and I’m thinking that’s going to be part of what Bowman is after. I’m not saying missing those three is the reason the Oilers lost, but I am saying that having their speed in the lineup would have been nice.
“But I think if we have a little bit of youth, that’s important. So we’re going to do our best to give opportunities to players, but given where we are, it’s not like we’re going to put a bunch of inexperienced guys in the lineup, because our objective is to win next year. We’re not trying to take a different route. We want to be playing in the final next year.”
While I love seeing Bowman talk about the need for youth in the lineup, I also wonder how he plans to make that happen with bare cupboards and a less-than-stellar prospect pool. It’s not as if teams will be lining up to give the Oilers quality prospects, and even if they did, I don’t see anyone offering any discounts. I think Bowman is saying all of the right things, but I’m struggling to see how it all comes together. Just because he’s ordering the 6-foot party sub doesn’t mean he’ll be able to eat the whole thing, if you know what I’m saying. Upgrading with negligible cap space, incoming extensions, and a wading pool for a depth chart is going to be incredibly difficult, and it makes me wonder what even makes for a successful offseason?
He told us in his year-end press conference that the target is to upgrade the forwards and goaltending, but that could mean almost anything. Who does he plan on moving out? Who’s getting an extension? Are we looking for one goalie or are we looking for two? Who is even available that can be reasonably acquired or signed, who is better than what we already have? How much should we expect him to do, given the cap constraints and limited trade assets, to accomplish the things he says he wants to do? Like I said off the jump, I’m glad that’s not my job.
WHAT IS A SUCCESSFUL OFFSEASON?
Even though no one at the Oilers asks for my opinion, I’m going to offer my take on what makes for a successful offseason. Now that the heartbreak of losing in the final is starting to subside, the differences between Cup champs and runner-ups start to become more apparent. While I know Bowman said he wants to get some youth in the lineup, we can’t be trading for kids who can’t score. As much as I love Vasily Podkolzin, our man doesn’t produce a whole lot of offence despite being one of the hardest workers on the team. We need some kids who can light the lamp, and one who has shown he can do it consistently at the NHL level.
While drafting and development are always important, we’re long past the point of being able to wait for years to see if these kids can pan out. If Stan Bowman is going to check useful youth off his list, he needs to find a dance partner willing to send him a 23, 24, or 25-year-old that needs a change of scenery. He’s going to have to spend to make it happen, but that’s the flavour of youth we need to balance out the aging supporting cast. Contributors, not passengers. Those are the kind of trades that are much easier said than done, but I’m not counting anything less than this as a win for Bowman.
Looking at what he can do in net, the good news is that Bowman doesn’t exactly have a high bar to clear. As much as I personally like Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, I’m also well aware of what the rollercoaster has been like with this as our tandem. When the boys are playing well, they look like world beaters, and the good times can last for weeks. The flip side of the coin, however, are lulls that can be just as painful and last twice as long. Light and shade, up and down, joyful hurrahs and pure pain and rage. That can’t be the case in net, and we have to have a better idea of what we’re getting on a nightly basis.
If Stan Bowman is going to make meaningful change in net, he’s probably going to have to find a trading partner because I’m not sure that Jake Allen, Alex Georgiev, or the Dan Vladars of the world are going to plug the hole. They’re going to have to find a Talbot-like trade — before you kill me in the comments, remember how good he was in the 2016-17 season — that gives a guy a chance to take over the net with the reasonable understanding that he would never have a chance at being the starter on his current team. That’s what I’m predicting anyway. Who that goalie is remains to be seen, but I won’t be surprised if it’s a name that no one necessarily expected.
So, what will it take for Stan Bowman to have a successful offseason? There are four things he needs to do from my perspective. 1) Go and find some real threats for the top six. Instead of spending $7.5 million on two guys in Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, go out and spend the whole amount on a true killer. 2) Find some guys under 26 that jump into the lineup and be counted on to produce. 3) Solidify the goaltending tandem with a goaltender who has played some guys at the NHL and has proven there’s more to show if only he had the opportunity. 4) Get Connor McDavid’s name on the dotted line.
If Stan Bowman can find a way to get four things done that are real and meaningful, there’s no reason the Edmonton Oilers can’t compete for the Stanley Cup again next season. There is no reason a team with the two best players on Earth can’t will their way to the finals for the third straight season. But they’re going to need some help if we’re going to get there. They’re going to need to look around and see players they can count on, and not just some of the time — all the time. In my head, four moves like that can make all of the difference in the world.
But as I’ve also mentioned three times now, I sure am glad that’s Stan Bowman’s problem to solve and not time. Making four big decisions doesn’t seem like the heaviest to-do list, but dammit it those won’t be the most important of his career so far. The clock is ticking, Stan. We’ll all be watching.
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