Willis vs. Eklund vs. Koules: The Results


Some of you may remember that back in November, Eklund put out a list of 25 players most likely to be traded (the list actually had 29 players on it, but whatever). His list was allegedly founded on insider information, as with all of his trade rumours. I’ve long since thought that Eklund’s “insider information” was nonsense, something that HockeyBuzz HogWash (check it out) makes totally clear.

Anyhow, I decided to put together a list of names from my inside information – you know, newspaper reports, my brain, coin flipping, etc. – to see which of us could be the most accurate. Just to add some flavor to the debate, I added Oren Koules to the contest; I figured it was entirely possible that the Tampa Bay Lightning would trade more players than Eklund or I guessed correctly. Let’s review the results, starting with Eklund.

Eklund’s List

1. Marian Gaborik – not traded
2. Jay Bouwmeester – not traded
3. Ilya Kovalchuk – not traded
4. Nik Antropov – Traded
5. Keith Tkachuk – not traded
6. Brian Gionta – not traded
7. Andy McDonald – not traded
8. Erik Cole – Traded
9. Marc Savard – not traded
10. Bill Guerin – Traded
11. John Madden – not traded
12. Jere Lehtinen – not traded
13. Martin Havlat – not traded
14. Brandon Dubinsky – not traded
15. Richard Zednik – not traded
16. Mike Modano – not traded
17. Mattias Ohlund – not traded
18. Cory Murphy – Waived
19. Derek Morris – Traded
20. Greg de Vries – not traded
21. Mathieu Schneider – Traded
22. Tuomo Ruutu – not traded
23. Petr Prucha – Traded
24. Alexander Radulov – not traded

Turns out there were actually only 24 names – Eklund counted wrong. Plus, of course, his goaltender list:

1. Nikolai Khabibulin – not traded
2. Kari Lehtonen – not traded
3. Dwayne Roloson – not traded
4. Manny Fernandez – not traded

Out of 28 names, Eklund correctly guessed 6 trades and 1 player waived. Giving him a half point for Cory Murphy being claimed on waivers, that’s 6.5/28 = 23.2% Accuracy Rating

My List

1. Chris Kunitz – Traded
2. Bobby ryan – not traded
3. Jason Williams – Traded
4. Ondrej Pavelec – not traded
5. Adrian Aucoin – not traded
6. Frantisek Kaberle – Waived
7. Nikolai Khabibulin – not traded
8. Brett Clark – not traded
9. Mathieu Garon – Traded
10. Dwayne Roloson – not traded
11. Rob Schremp – not traded
12. Zach Stortini – not traded
13. Jay Bouwmeester – not traded
14. Sean O’Donnell – not traded
15. Marian Gaborik – not traded
16. Benoit Pouliot – not traded
17. Martin Skoula – not traded
18. Jaroslav Halak – not traded
19. Mike Comrie – Traded
20. Dmitri Kalinin – Traded
21. Antoine Vermette – Traded
22. Mike Knuble – not traded
23. Keith Tkachuk – not traded
24. Chris Gratton – Waived
25. Jussi Jokinen – Traded
26. Gary Roberts – Waived
27. Carlo Coaliacovo – Traded
28. Alexei Ponikarovsky – not traded
29. Taylor Pyatt – not traded

Out of 29 names (sorry, I thought Eklund counted correctly) I correctly named 8 players traded and 3 players waived. Giving a half-point for waived players, I got 9.5/29 = 32.8% Accuracy Rating

On the other hand, had I just guessed “every member of the Tampa Bay Lightning”, (also known as Koules list) I would have got the following:

1. Mark Recchi – traded
2. Steve Eminger – traded
3. Jussi Jokinen – traded
4. Gary Roberts – waived
5. Radim Vrbata – waived
6. Matt Carle – traded
7. Jamie Heward – traded
8. Chris Gratton – waived
9. Olaf Kolzig – traded
10. Wyatt Smith – traded
11. Andrew Hutchinson – traded

The Lightning have used 44 players this season – meaning that since November, they have traded or waived 25% of their roster. Using the same accuracy rating formula as above (1 point for a trade, .5 points for waiving) that gives the Lightning a score of 9.5/44 = 21.6% Accuracy Rating

In Conclusion

We came from many places. One of us was an NHL owner, largely derided as the head of a joke organization. One of us owns an NHL rumour site, largely derided as a liar, charlatan and fraud. One of us is a blogger for OilersNation, largely derided as a pajama-clad, parents-basement-living amateur. The results:

Willis: 32.8% Accurate
Eklund: 23.2% Accurate
Koules: 21.6% Moved

We can come to a few conclusions from this. First, that an observer with decent knowledge (me) can put up a list of trades and expect to be right about a third of the time. Second, that Eklund is (and has always been) a liar and a fraud. Thirdly, we can also say that Tampa Bay is one of the worst organizations in the NHL (seriously – who changes over a quarter of their roster in 3-1/2 months during the season?).

Don’t waste your time with Eklund.

  • Hippy

    @ B-rad:
    They just had on SNET:

    Kotalik – Horc – Hemsky
    O'Sullivan – Gags – Pouliot
    Penner – Cogs – Pisani
    Jacgues – Brodz – Stortini

    Take it for what it's worth I guess. But WTF is MAP doing on 2nd line!?!?

  • Hippy

    I'm sorry…..did you say Pouliot? Reading that is like seeing the invitations to the party, and when you see his name you think.."uhhh…who invited this guy again".

  • Hippy

    @ Tommy:
    HAHAHA – you need faster fingers I guess – or a quicker copy/paste 😉

    I wouldn't have typed it up, usually. But I just installed a TV in the office – the day after Trade Deadline. Always a day late.

  • Hippy

    @ B-rad:

    On Gregor's show yeaterday he interviewed Rob Daum(former coach in Houston). 47 goals is pretty good for a centre turned left winger in the season Daum coached him. I think he said he can play centre, but is probably a better fit as a winger.

  • Hippy

    @ Robin Brownlee:

    Perhaps that is something you guys can all do on September 1 of the new season. Have you, Jason and John make the 25 pics and it can something to go back to. Maybe have people submit lists and have a prize of some kind. Perhaps throw a wager into it that involves a charity.

    @ Deep Oil:

    How come the rest of your unreadable garbage cant be more like your Eklund post? This is a post I can understand and appreciate while the rest of your posts are a gigantic mess.

  • Hippy

    Jack "FMNF" Bauer wrote:

    @ Deep Oil:
    How come the rest of your unreadable garbage cant be more like your Eklund post? This is a post I can understand and appreciate while the rest of your posts are a gigantic mess.

    Perhaps like Mr Lahey, he lets the booze do the thinking.

  • Hippy

    @ Jack "FMNF" Bauer:
    I'm all for the charity angle, but you might as well have people throw darts at a board or roll dice.
    Anybody who submits a list of names who might be traded weeks or months before the fact, be it Eklund or Willis, is guessing. I don't guess. I leave games of chance for vacations in Las Vegas.

  • Hippy

    The last line was pretty petty. Rumors are Rumors. I don't know why everyone has to go bashing him. I will still read his site, doesn't mean that I give his rumors any more or any less credit than rumors I would read here.

  • Hippy

    @ Shifty203:

    I have no particular compunctions about taking shots at Eklund. However entertaining he is, he takes money from gullible people with lies, which makes him a fraud and a cheat.

    I have nothing but contempt for the man.