One of the key elements in the recent success of the Edmonton Oilers at the draft table: reducing risk.
IMMINENT DANGER
Back in the olden days, the Edmonton Oilers treated the first round like a crapshoot. Jesse Niinimaki was taken in the middle of round one despite being ranked #50 on the European list (making him a probable 4th rder). After the draft, we were told that the organization had heard New Jersey planned to take him so they were forced into the selection. A cynic might suggest that a team like NJD (run by honest Lou) might make up stuff and leak the rumor in hopes that someone bought it.
The problem with this kind of thing is that if your reach pick (that’s what I call them, reach picks) falls down the stairs or hurts his arm or finds women, God, liquor or ganja then you’re s.o.l. I believe Kevin Prendergast lost his job because of Niinimaki, the Pouliot/Jacques 2003 draft and the Alex Plante 2007 selection. All of them had their careers impacted by injury. Doesn’t matter. It’s on the scouting team and their leader (KP) is no longer employed as a scouting director.
GETTIN’ IT?
The Oilers made some changes during the latter portion of last decade, and one of those changes involved elevating Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor to the position of scouting director. MacGregor has been in the position for the last three drafts and this weekend will be number four.
MBS is risk averse. His selections of Taylor Hall, Magnum PS and Jordan Eberle were all in the range of expectation, and he’s rarely gone outside the norm during the first 75 picks (Abney, Hesketh being examples). His 2010 second round is already being compared to KP’s 2002 (Stoll, Greene and JDD) after the club plucked Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin and Curtis Hamilton in the second round a year ago.
A list like Bob McKenzie’s is a very valuable tool for the organization that can get past it’s own ego and recognize that these are in fact the consensus best player’s available. In fact, if a player is rated highly and your scouts are telling you to stay away, wouldn’t you like a very good reason for it? Wouldn’t you hope that scout had a really good reason?
You could take Bob McKenzie’s top 60 to the draft, follow it exactly and come out on top of some teams on draft weekend. Scouting can help, but it can also hinder. What if you "saw him good" on the way day he was "beyond his best?" Should one of your scouts get stubborn on a fellow (say, Kenta Nilsson on Alexei Mikhnov) then you end up with a Traktor boy instead of an NHL player.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Here is Bob McKenzie’s top 60 list. I’d guess that Oilers picks 1, 19, 31 and maybe 61 could be on that list, and there are probably a couple more Edmonton selections on the NHL combine invite list.
| NORTH AMERICAN SKATERS | |||||
| NAME | TEAM | LEAGUE | POS. | HT | WT |
| Seth Ambroz | Omaha | USHL | RW | 6-foot-2 | 211 |
| Olivier Archambault | Val d’Or | QMJHL | LW | 5-foot-11 | 170 |
| Sven Baertschi | Portland | WHL | LW | 5-foot-10 | 181 |
| Nathan Beaulieu | Saint John | QMJHL | D | 6-foot-2 | 174 |
| Myles Bell | Regina | WHL | D | 6-foot | 214 |
| Tyler Biggs | USA U-18 | USHL | RW | 6-foot-2 | 210 |
| Austen Brassard | Belleville | OHL | RW | 6-foot-2 | 191 |
| Daniel Catenacci | Sault Ste. Marie | OHL | C | 5-foot-10 | 183 |
| Adam Clendening | Boston University | HE | D | 5-foot-11` | 190 |
| Nick Cousins | Sault Ste. Marie | OHL | C | 5-foot-11 | 166 |
| Sean Couturier | Drummondville | QMJHL | C | 6-foot-4 | 197 |
| Joseph Cramarossa | Mississauga St. Michael’s | OHL | C | 6-foot | 188 |
| Phillip Danault | Victoriaville | QMJHL | LW | 6-foot | 170 |
| Joel Edmundson | Moose Jaw | WHL | D | 6-foot-5 | 191 |
| Travis Ewanyk | Edmonton | WHL | LW | 6-foot-1 | 178 |
| Rocco Grimaldi | USA U-18 | USHL | C | 5-foot-6 | 163 |
| Dougie Hamilton | Niagara | OHL | D | 6-foot-4 | 187 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | Saint John | QMJHL | C | 6-foot-1 | 170 |
| Philippe Hudon | Choate-Rosemary | HIGH-CT | C/RW | 6-foot | 190 |
| Colin Jacobs | Seattle | WHL | C | 6-foot-1 | 197 |
| Boone Jenner | Oshawa | OHL | C | 6-foot-1 | 204 |
| Nicklas Jensen | Oshawa | OHL | LW/RW | 6-foot-2 | 187 |
| Tomas Jurco | Saint John | QMJHL | RW | 6-foot-2 | 187 |
| Alexander Khokhlachev | Windsor | OHL | C/LW | 5-foot-10 | 188 |
| Patrick Koudys | Rensselaer | ECAC | D | 6-foot-2 | 190 |
| Sean Kuraly | Indiana | USHL | C | 6-foot-2 | 192 |
| Joseph Labate | Holy Angels | HIGH-MN | C | 6-foot-4 | 180 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | Kitchener | OHL | LW | 6-foot-1 | 207 |
| Zac Larraza | USA U-18 | USHL | LW | 6-foot-2 | 192 |
| Maximilien LeSieur | Shawinigan | QMJHL | RW | 6-foot-2 | 203 |
| Lucas Lessio | Oshawa | OHL | LW | 6-foot-1 | 197 |
| Luke Lockhart | Seattle | WHL | RW | 5-foot-10 | 180 |
| Adam Lowry | Swift Current | WHL | LW | 6-foot-4 | 186 |
| Mario Lucia | Wayzata | HIGH-MN | LW | 6-foot-2 | 183 |
| Scott Mayfield | Youngstown | USHL | D | 6-foot-4 | 197 |
| Mark McNeill | Prince Albert | WHL | C | 6-foot-2 | 201 |
| Jonathan Miller | USA U-18 | USHL | C | 6-foot-1 | 198 |
| Joseph Morrow | Portland | WHL | D | 6-foot | 197 |
| Connor Murphy | USA U-18 | USHL | D | 6-foot-3 | 185 |
| Ryan Murphy | Kitchener | OHL | D | 5-foot-11 | 166 |
| David Musil | Vancouver | WHL | D | 6-foot-3 | 198 |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | London | OHL | C | 6-foot | 166 |
| Matthew Nieto | Boston University | HE | LW | 5-foot-11 | 175 |
| Marcel Noebels | Seattle | WHL | LW | 6-foot-3 | 195 |
| Stefan Noesen | Plymouth | OHL | RW | 6-foot | 195 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Red Deer | WHL | C | 6-foot-1 | 164 |
| Scott Oke | Saint John | QMJHL | LW | 6-foot-3 | 185 |
| Jamieson Oleksiak | Northeastern | HE | D | 6-foot-7 | 244 |
| Xavier Ouellet | Montreal | QMJHL | D | 6-foot | 174 |
| Stuart Percy | Mississauga St. Michael’s | OHL | D | 6-foot-1 | 186 |
| Zack Phillips | Saint John | QMJHL | C | 6-foot-1 | 178 |
| Shane Prince | Ottawa | OHL | C | 5-foot-10 | 174 |
| Matt Puempel | Peterborough | OHL | LW | 6-foot | 196 |
| Alan Quine | Peterborough | OHL | C | 5-foot-11 | 178 |
| Jonathan Racine | Shawinigan | QMJHL | D | 6-foot-1 | 182 |
| Rickard Rakell | Plymouth | OHL | RW | 6-foot | 191 |
| Ty Rattie | Portland | WHL | RW | 5-foot-11 | 163 |
| Mike Reilly | Shattuck-St. Mary’s | HIGH-MN | D | 5-foot-11 | 150 |
| Tobias Rieder | Kitchener | OHL | C | 5-foot-11 | 173 |
| Brett Ritchie | Sarnia | OHL | RW | 6-foot-3 | 210 |
| Robbie Russo | USA U-18 | USHL | D | 6-foot | 189 |
| Brandon Saad | Saginaw | OHL | LW | 6-foot-1 | 208 |
| Reece Scarlett | Swift Current | WHL | D | 6-foot-1 | 164 |
| Mark Scheifele | Barrie | OHL | C | 6-foot-2 | 182 |
| Logan Shaw | Cape Breton | QMJHL | RW | 6-foot-3 | 197 |
| Nicholas Shore | Denver | WCHA | C | 6-foot | 195 |
| Duncan Siemens | Saskatoon | WHL | D | 6-foot-3 | 192 |
| Ryan Sproul | Sault Ste. Marie | OHL | D | 6-foot-3 | 175 |
| Michael St. Croix | Edmotnon | WHL | C | 5-foot-11 | 176 |
| Ryan Strome | Niagara | OHL | C | 6-foot | 175 |
| Colin Sullivan | Avon Old Farms | HIGH-CT | D | 6-foot-1 | 190 |
| Ryan Tesink | Saint John | QMJHL | C | 5-foot-11 | 157 |
| Vincent Trocheck | Saginaw | OHL | C | 5-foot-10 | 184 |
| Andy Welinski | Green Bay | USHL | D | 6-foot | 188 |
| Tyler Wotherspoon | Portland | WHL | D | 6-foot-1 | 203 |
| Zachary Yuen | Tri-City | WHL | D | 6-foot | 205 |
| NORTH AMERICAN GOALTENDERS | |||||
| Jordan Binnington | Owen Sound | OHL | 6-foot-1 | 156 | |
| Laurent Brossoit | Edmonton | WHL | 6-foot-3 | 193 | |
| Christopher Gibson | Chicoutimi | QMJHL | 6-foot-1 | 193 | |
| John Gibson | USA U-18 | USHL | 6-foot-3 | 205 | |
| Matt Mahalak | Plymouth | OHL | 6-foot-2 | 183 | |
| Matt McNeely | USA U-18 | USHL | 6-foot-2 | 205 | |
| Stephen Michalek | Loomis Chaffee | HIGH-CT | 6-foot-2 | 183 | |
| Michael Morrison | Kitchener | OHL | 6-foot | 177 | |
| EUROPEAN SKATERS | |||||
| Joel Armia | Assat | FIN | RW | 6-foot-3 | 191 |
| Rasmus Bengtsson | Rogle | SWE-2 | D | 6-foot-3 | 189 |
| Jeremy Boyce Rotevall | Timra | SWE | LW | 6-foot | 169 |
| Jonas Brodin | Farjestad | SWE | D | 6-foot-1 | 169 |
| Max Friberg | Skovde | SWE-3 | LW | 5-foot-11 | 185 |
| Markus Granlund | HIFK | FIN-JR | C | 5-foot-10 | 169 |
| Gregory Hofmann | Ambri | SWISS | C | 6-foot | 177 |
| Dmitri Jaskin | Slavia | CZE | RW | 6-foot-1 | 196 |
| Karl Johansson | Brynas | SWE-JR | D | 5-foot-9 | 167 |
| Oscar Klefbom | Farjestad | SWE | D | 6-foot-4 | 200 |
| Nikita Kucherov | CSKA | RUS-JR | W | 5-foot-10 | 163 |
| Adam Larsson | Skelleftea | SWE | D | 6-foot-3 | 200 |
| Joachim Nermark | Linkoping | SWE-JR | C | 6-foot-1 | 187 |
| Victor Rask | Leskand | SWE-2 | C | 6-foot-2 | 194 |
| Alexander Ruuttu | Jokerit | FIN-JR | C | 6-foot-1 | 183 |
| Miikka Salomaki | Karpat | FIN | RW | 5-foot-11 | 198 |
| Mika Zibanejad | Djurgarden | SWE | C | 6-foot-2 | 191 |
| EUROPEAN GOALTENDER | |||||
| Samu Perhonen | JYP | FIN-JR | 6-foot-4 | 172 | |
If Ryan Murphy starts sliding down out of the top 10 do you trade up to get him? Say he is around at 12 or 13.
@LT
Ryan Murphy – I keep getting the feeling a good comparable might be Machael Del Zotto? Is that too far off? Undersized but highly skilled offensive D-man.
@ OB1 Team RNH – F.S.T.N.F
Give me examples of players whose production went down with Crosby. Give me some stats.
Chris Kunitz
Higher PPG without Crosby then with him this year.
And that’s with Crosby playing at one of the highest PPG paces in decades.
If that doesn’t prove how irrelavant your linemate/center is, I don’t know what does.
I dont think it proves that the linemate is irrelevant, but it definitely pokes holes in the “He makes guys better” statement.
I still think linemates can make a difference, I’m just not so sure as to the how and why of it all. Point producers get their points no matter what, so maybe the linemate makes an impact in other areas.
I’m just not ready to say linemates dont matter though.
This is the way I look at it:
For the vast majority of players in the NHL, you’ll put up roughly the same amount of points with almost any top 6 forward.
IE Kunitz is roughly a 45 – 55 point guy whether his best linemate is Crosby, Kopitar, Krejci or Gagner.
It’s when your best linemate is Fraser or Stortini that your production is probably in trouble.
I have to say there is something to a linemate.
A Karma, a Zen.. OK.. It’s the “Force”!
Think of the line mates over the years…
Gretz & Kurri, Hull & Oates, Hall & RNH, etc…
You know what I say’n, right ?
It rained yesterday, but it’s not raining today. If that doesn’t prove that it never rains on a day following a rainy day, I don’t know what does.
Hey go look for yourself. Outside of a +/- 40 game stretch for Armstrong 5 years ago, theirs been essentially no boost in production from any winger playing with Crosby.
I just looked, it still isn’t raining.
Kunitz has done nothing extra with Crosby, in fact his best years were clearly with the Ducks (hopefully just due to missed games for the Penguins’ sake)
Just look at the Penguins scoring. Crosby hasnt dragged anyone up. He’s getting the points then it’s a huge drop off (except when Malkin is playing).
This year he had 66 in 41GP and the next closest was Letang at 50 in 82GP.
I don’t know what’s worse, people knocking Larsson with mysterious scout assessments, or comparing RNH with Gretzky, Crosby and Thornton, the kind of impact center that he is most certainly not.
You want to buy into the hype, fine. I’m not.
Yet Larsson hype is cool?
For me it boils down to; the contending teams build their defensive core via trade or free-agency.
Why? Because 90% or more do not start hitting their performance stride until 5-7 years into their careers. Which incidentally also coincides with the end of their contracts..
Its just too much of a gamble, when you have perfectly productive centres on the board that also address team needs.
double post!
McGuire was building drama to boost the ratings for the draft specials. Nothing like adding in a little controversy in a fun, meaningless event.
MEANINGLESS! MEANINGLESS! You must not be from around here stranger. It’s all we have.
I hope Stu continues his low-risk ventures in this draft. To win at poker the goal is not to win big pots, but to lose only small ones.
The Nashville Predators are a good example of a team that chose to build from the blueline out. In 15 yrs they’ve done very little despite having arguably the best 1-2 in the league. Pittsburgh (Crosby and Malkin), Chicago (Toews and Kane), Washington (Ovy and Backstrom) and Detroit (Yzerman,Datsyuk,Zetterberg) have had much greater success to date. If you’re into that infinity rebuild thing then by all means, start with your blueliners. Larsson isn’t even considered a generational defenceman, he’s not even top 5 worthy, Hamilton is already better i feel.
You want an example of a winger who’s production dropped off when not playing with Crosby? How about MA Pouliot? Does it hit home any harder than that?
Enough of this larsson nonsense. Analysts always talk about anahiems big top line being one of the best in the NHL. In three years, edmontons top line will be in that conversation. Rnh is our man. Let’s drop next year too. Might as well score yakupov. Fail 4 nail!
freeze wrote:
That’s very interesting. Why on Earth would Khabi go looking for trouble on this? You would think he would be rigidly following everything that the courts had outlined for him to do; if he played his cards right, it was rumoured that he might have been able to shorten his 30-day sentence to a mere 10 days and then simply had some period of probation tacked on. Now, by (allegedly) breaching the terms outlined in Arizona last summer, he may be in jeopardy of not only serving the entire 30 days but possibly having additional time tacked on as well.
I don’t know what exactly he did or didn’t do, but whatever it was it sounds like exactly the kind of drama he should have been trying to avoid.
@ Tron
While I love the catchy slogan, I’m afraid I cannot endorse the Fail 4 Nail movement. If we want additional talent at this point, we should maybe try something we haven’t done in a decade or so; win something, and then buy some decent free agents who want to come play with winners. Hall and RNH were necessary acquisitions; it’s now time to move to Stage 2: the winning years.
*Breaks out the dust covered “Void Khabi’s contract” argument from the attic*
I was wondering how long that would take. If it ends up that Khabby receives further punishment as a result of his neglect to follow the courts’ decision, that may give the Oil the opportunity to cut ties with him all together.
I think the league would have to suspend him before the Oil could request the contract be scrapped, but I may be wrong.
I read an interesting comment on twitter (mc79hockey I think) wondering if the courses were supposed to be on hold until the appeal is heard. It could be that the court made an error. Weird stuff tho!
MEANINGLESS! MEANINGLESS! You must not be from around here stranger. It’s all we have.
Nyuk, nyuk. Well I’m from around there, but McGuire isn’t. And there is no stranger than McGuire.
Here is an update by Dave Staples:
Peter Kosednar of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews tells The Cult: “The Scottsdale City Court told me that it has to do with the Alcohol Screening Classes. No arrest warrant has been issued. No new court date set – yet.”
Peter Kosednar of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews tells The Cult:
Peter Kosednar isn’t of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews, he is the ScottsdaleArizonaNews. It’s the name of his blog. Not that that fact changes the news, but in interests of complete disclosure, I thought it should be mentioned. (And I’m sure Staples must have provided that info elsewhere).
Peter Kosednar of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews tells The Cult:
Peter Kosednar isn’t of the ScottsdaleArizonaNews, he is the ScottsdaleArizonaNews. It’s the name of his blog. Not that that fact changes the news, but in interests of complete disclosure, I thought it should be mentioned. (And I’m sure Staples must have provided that info elsewhere).
Taylor Hall will be a stud and get his points regardless of who his linemate is but wouldn’t it be nice to have the right guy in the middle to get the most out of him. Fact is that teams who have success in this league are deep and talented down the middle, something that the Oilers are not right now. You can find good dmen. #1 centers, not so much.