One of the key elements in the recent success of the Edmonton Oilers at the draft table: reducing risk.

IMMINENT DANGER

Back in the olden days, the Edmonton Oilers treated the first round like a crapshoot. Jesse Niinimaki was taken in the middle of round one despite being ranked #50 on the European list (making him a probable 4th rder). After the draft, we were told that the organization had heard New Jersey planned to take him so they were forced into the selection. A cynic might suggest that a team like NJD (run by honest Lou) might make up stuff and leak the rumor in hopes that someone bought it.
The problem with this kind of thing is that if your reach pick (that’s what I call them, reach picks) falls down the stairs or hurts his arm or finds women, God, liquor or ganja then you’re s.o.l. I believe Kevin Prendergast lost his job because of Niinimaki, the Pouliot/Jacques 2003 draft and the Alex Plante 2007 selection. All of them had their careers impacted by injury. Doesn’t matter. It’s on the scouting team and their leader (KP) is no longer employed as a scouting director.

GETTIN’ IT?

The Oilers made some changes during the latter portion of last decade, and one of those changes involved elevating Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor to the position of scouting director. MacGregor has been in the position for the last three drafts and this weekend will be number four.
MBS is risk averse. His selections of Taylor Hall, Magnum PS and Jordan Eberle were all in the range of expectation, and he’s rarely gone outside the norm during the first 75 picks (Abney, Hesketh being examples). His 2010 second round is already being compared to KP’s 2002 (Stoll, Greene and JDD) after the club plucked Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin and Curtis Hamilton in the second round a year ago.
A list like Bob McKenzie’s is a very valuable tool for the organization that can get past it’s own ego and recognize that these are in fact the consensus best player’s available. In fact, if a player is rated highly and your scouts are telling you to stay away, wouldn’t you like a very good reason for it? Wouldn’t you hope that scout had a really good reason? 
You could take Bob McKenzie’s top 60 to the draft, follow it exactly and come out on top of some teams on draft weekend. Scouting can help, but it can also hinder. What if you "saw him good" on the way day he was "beyond his best?" Should one of your scouts get stubborn on a fellow (say, Kenta Nilsson on Alexei Mikhnov) then you end up with a Traktor boy instead of an NHL player.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Here is Bob McKenzie’s top 60 list. I’d guess that Oilers picks 1, 19, 31 and maybe 61 could be on that list, and there are probably a couple more Edmonton selections on the NHL combine invite list.
NORTH AMERICAN SKATERS
NAME
TEAM
LEAGUE
POS.
HT
WT
Seth Ambroz
Omaha
USHL
RW
6-foot-2
211
Olivier Archambault
Val d’Or
QMJHL
LW
5-foot-11
170
Sven Baertschi
Portland
WHL
LW
5-foot-10
181
Nathan Beaulieu
Saint John
QMJHL
D
6-foot-2
174
Myles Bell
Regina
WHL
D
6-foot
214
Tyler Biggs
USA U-18
USHL
RW
6-foot-2
210
Austen Brassard
Belleville
OHL
RW
6-foot-2
191
Daniel Catenacci
Sault Ste. Marie
OHL
C
5-foot-10
183
Adam Clendening
Boston University
HE
D
5-foot-11`
190
Nick Cousins
Sault Ste. Marie
OHL
C
5-foot-11
166
Sean Couturier
Drummondville
QMJHL
C
6-foot-4
197
Joseph Cramarossa
Mississauga St. Michael’s
OHL
C
6-foot
188
Phillip Danault
Victoriaville
QMJHL
LW
6-foot
170
Joel Edmundson
Moose Jaw
WHL
D
6-foot-5
191
Travis Ewanyk
Edmonton
WHL
LW
6-foot-1
178
Rocco Grimaldi
USA U-18
USHL
C
5-foot-6
163
Dougie Hamilton
Niagara
OHL
D
6-foot-4
187
Jonathan Huberdeau
Saint John
QMJHL
C
6-foot-1
170
Philippe Hudon
Choate-Rosemary
HIGH-CT
C/RW
6-foot
190
Colin Jacobs
Seattle
WHL
C
6-foot-1
197
Boone Jenner
Oshawa
OHL
C
6-foot-1
204
Nicklas Jensen
Oshawa
OHL
LW/RW
6-foot-2
187
Tomas Jurco
Saint John
QMJHL
RW
6-foot-2
187
Alexander Khokhlachev
Windsor
OHL
C/LW
5-foot-10
188
Patrick Koudys
Rensselaer
ECAC
D
6-foot-2
190
Sean Kuraly
Indiana
USHL
C
6-foot-2
192
Joseph Labate
Holy Angels
HIGH-MN
C
6-foot-4
180
Gabriel Landeskog
Kitchener
OHL
LW
6-foot-1
207
Zac Larraza
USA U-18
USHL
LW
6-foot-2
192
Maximilien LeSieur
Shawinigan
QMJHL
RW
6-foot-2
203
Lucas Lessio
Oshawa
OHL
LW
6-foot-1
197
Luke Lockhart
Seattle
WHL
RW
5-foot-10
180
Adam Lowry
Swift Current
WHL
LW
6-foot-4
186
Mario Lucia
Wayzata
HIGH-MN
LW
6-foot-2
183
Scott Mayfield
Youngstown
 USHL
D
6-foot-4
197
Mark McNeill
Prince Albert
WHL
C
6-foot-2
201
Jonathan Miller
USA U-18
USHL
C
6-foot-1
198
Joseph Morrow
Portland
WHL
D
6-foot
197
Connor Murphy
USA U-18
USHL
D
6-foot-3
185
Ryan Murphy
Kitchener
OHL
D
5-foot-11
166
David Musil
Vancouver
WHL
D
6-foot-3
198
Vladislav Namestnikov
London
OHL
C
6-foot
166
Matthew Nieto
Boston University
HE
LW
5-foot-11
175
Marcel Noebels
Seattle
WHL
LW
6-foot-3
195
Stefan Noesen
Plymouth
OHL
RW
6-foot
195
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Red Deer
WHL
C
6-foot-1
164
Scott Oke
Saint John
QMJHL
LW
6-foot-3
185
Jamieson Oleksiak
Northeastern
HE
D
6-foot-7
244
Xavier Ouellet
Montreal
QMJHL
D
6-foot
174
Stuart Percy
Mississauga St. Michael’s
OHL
D
6-foot-1
186
Zack Phillips
Saint John
QMJHL
C
6-foot-1
178
Shane Prince
Ottawa
OHL
C
5-foot-10
174
Matt Puempel
Peterborough
OHL
LW
6-foot
196
Alan Quine
Peterborough
OHL
C
5-foot-11
178
Jonathan Racine
Shawinigan
QMJHL
D
6-foot-1
182
Rickard Rakell
Plymouth
OHL
RW
6-foot
191
Ty Rattie
Portland
WHL
RW
5-foot-11
163
Mike Reilly
Shattuck-St. Mary’s
HIGH-MN
D
5-foot-11
150
Tobias Rieder
Kitchener
OHL
C
5-foot-11
173
Brett Ritchie
Sarnia
OHL
RW
6-foot-3
210
Robbie Russo
USA U-18
USHL
D
6-foot
189
Brandon Saad
Saginaw
OHL
LW
6-foot-1
208
Reece Scarlett
Swift Current
WHL
D
6-foot-1
164
Mark Scheifele
Barrie
OHL
C
6-foot-2
182
Logan Shaw
Cape Breton
QMJHL
RW
6-foot-3
197
Nicholas Shore
Denver
WCHA
C
6-foot
195
Duncan Siemens
Saskatoon
WHL
D
6-foot-3
192
Ryan Sproul
Sault Ste. Marie
OHL
D
6-foot-3
175
Michael St. Croix
Edmotnon
WHL
C
5-foot-11
176
Ryan Strome
Niagara
OHL
C
6-foot
175
Colin Sullivan
Avon Old Farms
HIGH-CT
D
6-foot-1
190
Ryan Tesink
Saint John
QMJHL
C
5-foot-11
157
Vincent Trocheck
Saginaw
OHL
C
5-foot-10
184
Andy Welinski
Green Bay 
USHL
D
6-foot
188
Tyler Wotherspoon
Portland
WHL
D
6-foot-1
203
Zachary Yuen
Tri-City
WHL
D
6-foot
205
 
NORTH AMERICAN GOALTENDERS
Jordan Binnington
Owen Sound
OHL
 
6-foot-1
156
Laurent Brossoit
Edmonton
WHL
 
6-foot-3
193
Christopher Gibson
Chicoutimi
QMJHL
 
6-foot-1
193
John Gibson
USA U-18
USHL
 
6-foot-3
205
Matt Mahalak
Plymouth
OHL
 
6-foot-2
183
Matt McNeely
USA U-18
USHL
 
6-foot-2
205
Stephen Michalek
Loomis Chaffee 
HIGH-CT
 
6-foot-2
183
Michael Morrison 
Kitchener
OHL
 
6-foot
177
 
EUROPEAN SKATERS
Joel Armia
Assat
FIN
RW
6-foot-3
191
Rasmus Bengtsson
Rogle
SWE-2
D
6-foot-3
189
Jeremy Boyce Rotevall
Timra
SWE
LW
6-foot
169
Jonas Brodin
Farjestad
SWE
D
6-foot-1
169
Max Friberg
Skovde
SWE-3
LW
5-foot-11
185
Markus Granlund
HIFK
FIN-JR
C
5-foot-10
169
Gregory Hofmann
Ambri
SWISS
C
6-foot
177
Dmitri Jaskin
Slavia
CZE
RW
6-foot-1
196
Karl Johansson
Brynas
SWE-JR
D
5-foot-9
167
Oscar Klefbom
Farjestad
SWE
D
6-foot-4
200
Nikita Kucherov
CSKA
RUS-JR
W
5-foot-10
163
Adam Larsson
Skelleftea
SWE
D
6-foot-3
200
Joachim Nermark
Linkoping
SWE-JR
C
6-foot-1
187
Victor Rask
Leskand
SWE-2
C
6-foot-2
194
Alexander Ruuttu
Jokerit
FIN-JR
C
6-foot-1
183
Miikka Salomaki
Karpat
FIN
RW
5-foot-11
198
Mika Zibanejad
Djurgarden
SWE
C
6-foot-2
191
 
EUROPEAN GOALTENDER
Samu Perhonen
JYP
FIN-JR
 
6-foot-4
172