Is game nine of an 82-game season too early for a "must-win" scenario? Mathematically it is, but what about mentally for a team that has lost five straight and has yet to win a game in regulation?
The Oilers haven’t played awful, but they also haven’t played well enough to win, and you wonder about the psyche of an organization with a young team, a new coach and a new general manager if the losses continue to mount.
One theory suggests you can’t make the playoffs in October, but you can miss them. Statistically the odds are against you if you are too far out of the playoff cutline at the end of October, and while many players try to focus only on the next game it is virtually impossible to be unaware of your team’s place in the standings.
Elliotte Friedman pointed out that over the last seven full length NHL seasons, only three of 32 teams that were four points out of a playoff position on November 1st managed to play a postseason game. I was curious to see which teams made the comeback.
In 2011, the Boston Bruins were 4-7-0 with eight points, four back of the 8th place Lightning, but finished the season in 2nd place in the Eastern conference. The Bruins went 45-22-4 in their final 71 games.
In 2010, the Buffalo Sabres were 3-7-2 with eight points, four back of 8th place. They went 40-22-8 in their final 70 games to finish in 7th place in the east.
In 2006, the Calgary Flames were 3-7-1 and seven points back of 8th place, but they managed to finish in 8th place. The Flames went 40-22-9 in their final 71 games to make the playoffs.
History shows it will be very difficult for the Oilers to make the postseason, if they aren’t close to the playoff cutline in 13 days.
The Oilers are already seven points out of 8th place with six games to play before November 1st. This afternoon’s game isn’t mathematically a "must-win" game, but in order to stay within four points of the playoff cutline they have to win at least four, likely five, of their next six games.
Some have stated fans need to remain calm and don’t panic, however, the statistics paint a different picture. The Oilers need wins, and they need them quickly.
Head coach Dallas Eakins switched up his top two lines, by moving Nail Yakupov and David Perron away from their off wings. Eakins moved Yakupov to the left side, because he feels Yakupov can get more pucks to net, now that the puck won’t be as exposed to the middle of the ice like it was on his off wing.
It will be interesting to watch and see if that is indeed the case for both Yakupov and Perron.
As I stated yesterday, Marc Arcobello’s hockey sense has really impressed me. He’s 2nd in the NHL in assists with eight, and despite not having any goals so far he has put himself in great positions to score. If he keeps playing like this it will be hard for Eakins to take him out of the top-six.
The final two pairings are a guess. Eakins might keep Belov and J.Schultz together, or he could switch things up. Denis Grebeshkov was recalled from OKC and he could play today. The Oilers didn’t have a morning skate, so we won’t know who is scratched until the warm up or moments before puck drop.
He played his best game of the season in New York on Thursday, and if he plays like that today he’ll give the Oilers a chance to win.
OUR CRYSTAL BALL
GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers have to win eventually don’t they? They’ve won two straight in Ottawa, and they will make it three with a 4-2 victory.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Arcobello’s surprising start to the season continues as he picks up two more helpers and takes over the NHL lead in assists with ten.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The PK doesn’t allow a goal for the first time this season, and to cap off their perfect afternoon of penalty killing Nugent-Hopkins scores a shorthanded goal, on a nifty assist from Arcobello. The shortie comes with Ryan Jones in the penalty box for instigating a fight with Joe Corvo. Neither player had any PIMs prior to the dust up.