WHAT WOULD GAGNER FETCH THESE DAYS?

TSN reported tonight that the "ask" for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender. What would that look like? 

TRADE FOR ANOTHER GAGNER? TOP 6F

Gagner’s contract (just signed this summer) is a $4.8 million dollar cap hit times three seasons (including this one), so there’s clearly a need to have him inside the top 6F. The players in Gagner’s cap hit range offer an interesting idea about what that kind of money buys you in today’s NHL; I think Bryan Little is (45, 14-20-34) a good comparable for Gagner, about the same dollars and their point totals per 82 games march in lock step:

  • Little per 82gp: 21-27-48
  • Gagner per 82gp: 18-32-50

That seems about right, I think Little’s current season would give him more value, but Gagner’s coming on and has a solid offensive resume despite warts at center.

FANCY STATS COMPARABLES

12-13

13-14

The two season comparison from extra skater offers us a unique look at the two players (man, does shooting percentage make a difference) and shows the Corsi for % goes to the Jet.

TOP 4D

 

The Penguins have a ton of young defensemen and prospects, so maybe Gagner to the Pens could work (hat tip to Jonathan Willis for the Lavoie tweet). Could Gagner replace Dupuis?

Among the Pens blue, I really like Kris Letang, but can’t imagine the Pens moving him—and of course Gagner’s value is not close to Letang’s worth despite the difference in cap dollars. Pittsburgh has a lot of defensive prospects, but so does Edmonton, and I don’t see a forward match here either. The two teams would have to be creative to get anything done. Do you see a match?

STARTING GOALIE

This is even-strength save percentage, NHL 2013-14. See anyone you like? Martin Jones is an interesting name, as is Ben Scrivens for that matter. Reimer in Toronto has been rumored heading here from time to time, and Jonas Hiller might end up being an Oiler via free agency this summer.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Chances are Gagner will be dealt after the Olympics to a team in need of offense. I’ll guess eastern conference, and will guess that it won’t be a goalie. Beyond that, I’m out. Any guesses?

  • pkam

    I really don’t understand some fans here.

    A few years ago, they wanted Penner’s head because Penners only showed up when he liked to, then they turn around and want Byfuglien.

  • Spoils

    Nobody is untradeable as long as you improve the fit of the team with the trade. think Avs trading all three of their #1 overalls prior to winning Stanley.

    Why not package Gagner up with someone else. At this point I would go to Nashville and say – you have great D and need scoring…

    Pick one from bucket A and one from bucket B and give us Shea Weber or Seth Jones – your pick.

    Bucket A = RNH, THall, Eberle, JSchultz, Yak,

    Bucket B = Perron, Gagner, Hemsky, Klefbom,

    etc.

    No1 D. Pronger styles…

    BOLDMOVES time.

    • pkam

      Easy choice for Poile.

      Hall + Perron for Jones.

      Hall was 1st overall 4 years ago. Despite playing off position for a few games to start the season, he is now 4th LW in PPG, although his team is 2nd last in standing. Not to mention his 6+ years left in his 6M contract, one of the best contracts you can find.

      Jones is just a rookie, although he has a lot of potential, it is just potential.

      We have a pretty good chance to draft Ekblad this year, why would we want to give up Hall + Perron for Jones? Is Jones really that much better than Aaron Ekblad?

      I hope MacT is not that naive.

  • oilerjed

    To the many bitter posters who are bagging MacT for his asks, go back to the top of LTs article and start over.
    “TSN reported tonight that the “ask” for Sam Gagner is a top 6 forward, a top 4D or a starting goaltender.”

    TSN reported should be your first flag…….. They have to say something in their umpteen hours of hockey “reporting” program.

    Secondly, the worse the Oilers record gets this year, the less value posters see in our players. Im not an insider for sure but Im willing to bet that this is not how business works in the NHL. Value isnt based on team acheivments but past performance and future speculation. Putting Gags with bigger and better defenders on his line is a sure fire way for him to succeed. So IMO there is plenty of value left for a quality return. Im hoping MacT gets creative and tries to fix two holes with one deal, moving out a couple of players at once.

      • DoubleDIon

        That would be an outright theft for you guys. Klefbom has potential, but he’s struggling at the AHL level, while Gallagher is starring at the NHL level. He’s a 200 foot player. Gagner doesn’t have any trade value unless it’s negative. No one wants a 4.8 million dollar liability. The piece you should be trading is Eberle, he’ll never have more value than he does right now. Hang on to Yak and Gagner until they rebound, then deal their asses too. Hall and RNH are the building blocks. They shouldn’t be traded for anything but a huge overpay.

  • Truth

    Yak for Pacioretty and a pick.

    Pacioretty has taken a little heat in Montreal, Yak gets a lot of heat in Edmonton. Yak has a higher upside. If I was Montreal I would like the idea of Galchenyuk and Yak back together.

        • oilerjed

          hmm this is an odd inference. I understand your sarcasm but you’d still be better off saving the bytes you consumed with your post until you have something useful to say.

        • Truth

          Who do you take on your team, and why?

          Michael Ryder: 33 yo, 6’1″, 200 lbs – 69G previous 3 seasons

          Max Pacioretty: 25 yo, 6’2″, 217 lbs – 62G previous 3 seasons

          David Backes: 29 yo, 6’3″, 225 lbs – 61G previous 3 seasons

          Michael Grabner: 26 yo, 6′, 185 lbs – 70G previous 3 seasons.

          • A-Mc

            I’d be all over Backes!

            Big. Is a Captain. Has some Jam, can score and he plays Center! He also has a wicked snipe, in-case you hadn’t noticed.

            Backes would be awesome for the Oilers!

            ***edit*** Just to be clear: we’re talking who would we take 1-1 for Yakupov, right? I’d trade YakAttack for David Backes for sure but i dont think there is any hope in hell that St. Louis would even CONSIDER that trade. Yak doesnt bring enough to the table.. atleast not until he has a 30 goal season

          • Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)

            Of this list I would take Backes. Perfect combination of size, toughness, skill and character for the Oilers needs. At 29 he’s got at least 4-5 good years left in him.

    • pkam

      I have no doubt you will. And I am glad you are not the Oilers GM or I’ll lose my faith in Oilers much sooner.

      I don’t agree with all the moves MacT made, but not one he made that I disagree more than this.

      Being said that, this is a much better suggestion than the previous one.

      Honestly, I doubt the Caps will trade Chimera and Fehr for Gallagher, but I believe they will do it for Gagner, even without Klefbom.

      So you still think Gagner + Klefbom is not quite enough for Gallagher?

    • Truth

      No chance in h3ll McPhee bites on that deal. The last thing WAS wants is a small, ineffective forward who is easily pushed around. Anyways, WAS needs a 1st line LW, and unless Hall is on the table coming back to WAS, I don’t see them having any interest in what we have to offer. And since we all know Hall is going nowhere, its a non-starter

  • Truth

    He got 8 points with Hall and Eberle that night. So I would play him there in the run up to the olympics, and when the injuries start during the tournament, trade him the week after leading up to deadline.

    • Johnnydapunk

      I don’t know if they missed the boat so much as it was a bit pricey to get on said boat.

      It seems like he tried to get one of the goalies listed, but the “cost” was too high, and then he had hoped that Dubnyk could at least have a relatively decent season and then they can search for a UFA in the summer as there are quite a few available.

      The Oil are giving up a comedy number of shots and as much as goaltending has been an issue (which it is for sure) I think that the shocking defence is also a massive issue that needs to be addressed as well.

    • pkam

      I don’t think Tambo/MacT missed the boat at all.

      We have inquired about Schneider and Bernier but the price was just too high.

      We all know the Canucks asked our 1st and 2nd rounder in 2013 and a high prospects, like Pitlick or Klefbom. I guess if MacT made that trade, you will be here blaming him for overpaying in a bonehead trade.

      Leafs had to give a young goalie, a roster player and a 2nd round pick for Bernier. And LA asked for even more from the Oilers because we are in the same conference and division. Not sure if Bernier worth that much after watching his game against the Pens 2 night ago. That performance looked worse than any of Dubnyk’s game.

      We all knew Tambo made an offer for Bishop, I believe it is Ryan Jones and a draft pick, but Senators preferred a rookie and a pick from Tampa. Most fans said the Sens were crazy to choose the Tampa’s offer but how is this Tambo or MacT’s fault?

      And Elliot? Really? He was traded to Avs by Sens in 2010-11, and Avs decided not to resign him and let him walked UFA. Did you see his performance in Sens and Avs in 2010-11? If you didn’t, you can ask some Sens fans or go to NHL.com and watch the game highlight.

      • Cubro

        So what you’re saying is that management did “all they could” to acquire a #1 goalie. Obviously they didnt do good enough, maybe the asking prices were high but in this league you have to make these deals sometimes. Take off your rosy coloured glasses.

        • 2004Z06

          They also tried to get Raanta but he elected to go to Chicago. I don’t believe anyone expected Dubnyk/Labarbera to be as bad as they were so it was likely the expectation that a .920 sv% would suffice to get through the season and then they would grab a goalie through free agency.

          It was a gamble that didn’t pay off, and Mac T then tried to rectify the situation by moving Labarbera and picking up Bryzgalov.

          That’s 10x the effort Tambellini would have expended.

          The biggest issue in my eyes affecting all aspect of the Oilers success this year is the lack of legitimate NHL defensemen.

          • DoubleDIon

            I think it was reasonable to assume that your goaltending would we averagish. What is inexcusable is not recognizing the surplus of one dimensional offensive guys and dealing Eberle for a top pairing defenseman. Everyone with half a brain could see that the Oilers had no top pairing defensemen. To go into this season without one meant this management still had either no clue or no playoff aspirations. Either way, it’s inexcusable.

            Gordon was a good start on a shutdown line, but they need another winger to play with him and Jones against other teams top groups.

          • pkam

            The management didn’t get a #1 defenseman didn’t mean they didn’t try. The problem here is we don’t know if they did and who were they went after and what was the asking price. Most teams don’t trade away their top pairing defenseman unless they are under performing or becoming UFA and are not willing to resign.

            We all know MacT tried very hard to get Cal Clutterbuck and David Clarkson but both of them decided to go somewhere else. Actually, we heard that our offer to Clarkson was more than the Toronto offer. We also heard lots of rumors between the Oilers and Flyers. Who knows what the other side are asking for.

            The Smid trade and Perron trade shows that MacT is willing to overpay a little to get what he wants. But if he constantly overpays a lot to UFAs and trades, he is not doing his job properly.

          • DoubleDIon

            If you didn’t get it done you didn’t try hard enough. You can’t tell me Eberle and your 1st isn’t enough to get it done. It definitely is. You pay what you have to when you want to win. Eberle and a 1st gets you the top defenseman from any rebuilding team in the league. Trying and excuses are for losers. Good GM’s fill the needs of their team. If MacT offered Clarkson more than the Leafs did he’s a braindead idiot. If you think the Perron trade was an overpayment then you don’t understand hockey at all. If you think the Smid trade did anything for you at all you don’t understand hockey.

          • pkam

            I know for sure that Eberle + our 1st are not enough for Weber. I also heard rumor that they inquired about Yandle and Eberle + our 1st are not enough. The rumor is Coyotes asked Eberle + 1st + 2nd + a top prospect. I also heard they inquire about JBo but he refused to come to Edmonton. Perhaps we can get Ehrhoff with Eberle + 1st but I won’t pay that much for Ehrhoff.

            Am I glad MacT didn’t try hard enough to get Clarkson, you bet. Am I glad MacT didn’t give Eberle + 1st + 2nd + a top prospect for Yandle, you bet. I will feel bad if MacT give Eberle + 1st for Ehrhoff. And I did feel bad for the Smid trade.

            NYI did try hard enough to get Vanek. Not sure how their fans feel about it now.

        • pkam

          Why we always have to pay more than other teams to get a player? Why Devils can get Schneider with a 9th overall, and we can’t get him for a 7th overall, and even with an additional 37th overall?

          So paying a lot more to get a player means doing a good enough job?

          And when we did overpay (Smid for a goalie prospect) and you guys are all over MacT.

          Damn you do and Damn you don’t, right?

  • Strange Tamer

    The Little and Gagne comparisons are pretty good. Small, soft forwards with decent offense, but not good enough to play 2C on a good team. Little is a bit more of a scorer though, has potted 30 before.

    Thats the type of return we are likely to get for Gagne at this point if we want a 1 for 1 for an established player: small, over paid, and or defensively flawed.

    Maybe we could get a perceived flawed player that turns out just needs a change of scenery or is a diamond in the rough, but I wouldn’t trust the track record of our pro scouting to accomplish this.

    So far MacT has done fairly well in trades. Dumping Horcoff seemed an impossible task without taking back a bad contract, but he accomplished it. Perron deal was best of the year so far. Smid deal looks like a stinker at present, he should of at least explained the reasoning behind it if he wanted cap relief for future moves, etc…, but so far MacT has done alright.

    If Gagne is moved it would probably have to be for picks and prospects to maximze value, you are not going to get the top 6 F or top 4 D with size and grit we need for just him at his current value.

    I’d like to propose a Gagne for Kreider deal. Slats loves dealing with his former team, also loves offensive skill. Kreider has had his growing pains with the Rangers, but has the speed and size the Oil could use. Change of scenery could benefit both. Rangers might even have to throw in a little something to sweeten the deal.

  • Death Metal Nightmare

    pretty hilarious how over the years the media/bloggers were saying, “Gagner is good. he’s still only X years old. Just wait, he has the potential for 70 points. just wait. just wait.” then he has a so-so HALF SEASON last year and everyone is fully on board with him being a main offensive weapon in the top 6 and supported the ridiculous contract. couple months later almost the entire fan base is against him and the media is acting like all their BS prophecies never existed.

    “i remain smart, and can still see through everything. read my bullcrap. love, blogger”

    no.

  • A-Mc

    I know we are all tired of Weber trade offers on ON, but I have a deal that I think makes sense for all involved. Here’s my thought process:

    Oilers desperately need a #1D (Weber), but no way Nashville gives him up without getting someone who can go some way to replacing Weber on D. Since the Oil do not have anyone like that, we go for a three-way trade and get Buffalo to send Erhoff (I know he has a NTC but if I was him I would flee Buffalo right now). To pry Erhoff from Buffalo we send over Petry (to go some way in replacing Erhoff) plus our first in this year’s draft. Seems to me like an overpayment, so we also ask to get, say, a top 9F (M. Foligno?) from Buffalo as well. Then we send Eberle to Nashville to get Weber, and Nashville gets the first line sniper they badly need. Also noteworthy: some buzz was made at the start of the season when Jones was forced to his off-side to play with Weber, and Erhoff allows Jones to go back to his natural side.

    To recap:

    To Nashville:
    Eberle
    Ehroff

    To Edmonton:
    Weber
    Top-9 Forward

    To Buffalo:
    Petry
    Oiler’s 2014 First Round Pick

    A final note: the deal would be done after the season, so that Edmonton’s pick would be most likely to retain its value.

    Thoughts?

    • DoubleDIon

      Well thought out. If Nashville wants to move the Weber contract that’s a move that makes sense. They get a scorer which is a huge need for them and plug the Weber hole with a 2/3 type of guy. I think the top 9 forward could be the difference in value. Probably depends who it is and is would have to come from Buffalo.

    • pkam

      If we can get Weber with Eberle, Petry and our 1st rounder, it is a no brainer and I don’t think MacT will hesitate.

      Jeff Petry and our 1st rounder (will be top 5, probably top 3) is more than sufficient for Ehrhoff. Buffalo will be crazy to decline that trade.

      But I doubt Nashville would trade Weber for Ehrhoff and Eberle. There will be many teams willing to pay more for him.

      If I am Polie, I will rather take Eberle, Petry and the Oilers 1st rounder than Ehrhoff and Eberle. Then try to get Ehrhoff with Petry and their 1st rounder (probably around 10th overall). But even with this scenario, the Nashville is still losing the trade.

    • A-Mc

      I’m surprised Nashville hasn’t made this deal already! Are you serious? Maybe turn off your computer and come out of your mothers basement for some fresh air. You are delusional.