What is Petry’s value?

2-Petry-4

It has been obvious to me since the beginning of the season that Jeff Petry was going to be traded. He will be a 27-year-old UFA on July 1st, and the temptation to see what teams will want to sign him and for how much money is too enticing to pass up.

The big questions are what is he worth in a trade and what type of salary will he command on July 1st?

What is a realistic return for Petry before the Monday, March 2nd trade deadline?

I looked at recent trades that involved D-men who were in the final year of their contracts over the past three seasons.

2014 NHL trade deadline (including the month leading up to deadline):

Andrew MacDonald for a 3rd round pick in 2014, a 2nd round pick in 2015 and Matt Mangene.

Stephane Robidas for a conditional 4th round pick in 2014.

Mike Weaver for a 5th round pick in 2015.

Nick Schultz for a 5th round pick in 2014.

2013 trade deadline (including the month leading up to deadline):

Jay Bouwmeester for a 1st and 4th round pick in 2013, Reto Berra and Mark Cundari.

Robyn Regehr for a 2nd round pick in 2014 and 2015.

Douglas Murray for a 2nd in 2013 and 2014.

Jordan Leopold for a 2nd and a 5th in 2013.

David Drewiske for a 5th round pick in 2013.

Scott Hannan for a 7th round pick in 2013.

2012 trade deadline (including the month leading up to deadline):

Kyle Quincey for a 1st round pick in 2012 and Sebastien Piche.

Johnny Oduya for a 2nd and a 3rd in 2013.

Pavel Kubina for a 2nd in 2012, a 4th in 2013 and Jon Kalinski.

Nicklas Grossman for a 2nd in 2012 and a 3rd in 2013.

Which D-men compare to Petry?

He isn’t as good as Bouwmeester, but some would say he is similar in style to Leopold, Quincey and Oduya at the time of the trade.

Quincey had 23 points in 54 games when he was traded, and the Red Wings were looking for an offensive defender. Quincey was also making $3.125 million at the time of the deal and re-signed a two-year deal with the Wings for $3.775 million/year before July 1st.

Oduya’s offensive stats are similar to Petry, he had 13 points at the deadline in 2012, while Petry has 10 in 46 games thus far. Oduya was making $3.5 million/year at the time of trade, but he re-signed with the Hawks on a three-year term for $3.383 million/year.

Leopold was 32 at the time of the trade and making $3 mill/year. He re-signed with the Blues for $2.25 million/year for two years.

Oduya might be the best comparison if you are looking at overall style of player. Petry has averaged .22 points/game over the past three seasons. Quincey was a more productive offensive player at the time of the deal, which is why he likely garnered a 1st rounder in return, but since going to Detroit he’s been more of a defensive defender with little offensive production.

Petry shoots right and is only 27 years old, and he’s becoming more consistent. A reasonable return for him will likely be a 2nd rounder and another pick or a prospect. There is an outside chance the Oilers could get a 1st rounder, but the only way that happens is if there is a bidding war, and some teams might offer a 1st in 2016 rather than 2015.

Best case scenario that I see is the Oilers receiving a 2nd round pick in 2015.

The fact that the 9th place team in the East, Florida, is seven points out of the playoffs already (with four games in hand), and 10th and 11th place Toronto and Ottawa are already ten points back, means more teams out east will be sellers. That could impact his value, because if there are more teams selling, the buyers might have to pay less.

NEW CONTRACT?

Contracts

Ideally, the Oilers would find a way to re-sign him rather than trade him for picks or a young prospect. The reason I don’t see him re-signing here is simple: nine consecutive seasons outside the playoffs. Unless the Oilers are willing to pay him $5 million+ a season, which would be an overpayment, I don’t see him staying, and even then I’m not sure money will be enough to entice him to stay here.

I understand why he would test the market even if the Oilers were a 9th or 10th place team and not in the basement. Going to UFA at 27 years young is a luxury, so why not see what is out there?

I’ve heard and read many in Edmonton suggesting Petry will command $5 million/year in free agency, but I don’t see any comparable to back that up.

Matt Niskanen received $5.75 million/year for seven years from the Capitals last summer, but he was coming off a 46-point season. The Caps should have recognized that was an anomaly, but many teams are desperate for offence from the backend so they overpaid.

They also signed 33-year-old Brooks Orpik to a 5-year deal worth $5.5 mill/year, but Orpik has won a Stanley Cup and played 92 playoff games. Petry doesn’t have the playoff experience of Orpik or offensive numbers of Niskanen.

Anton Stralman is a fair comparable in my opinion. He has solid possession numbers, and although Petry’s weren’t as good, you can safely say that much of that is due to him playing on a far inferior team than Stralman’s Rangers.

Stralman played 21 minutes a game for the Rangers during their run to the Stanley Cup Finals. Like Petry, he doesn’t bring much offence and plays mainly ES and PK. Stralman shoots right, and was also 27 years young last summer when he signed a five-year deal worth $4.5 mill/year.

Unless the Canadian dollar rebounds by ten cents before late June, it is very likely the salary cap will be around $71 million for next season, meaning Stralman’s figure would jive with Petry’s this year.

Petry’s lack of playoff success will hurt him during negotiations. Whether that is right or not, teams value players who have succeeded in the playoffs more than those who haven’t. They also are able to see how they react to the increased intensity and pace of playoff hockey.

I’d be surprised if Petry got more than Stralman’s $4.5 million, and I could see his new deal closer to $4.25 million/year.

QUICK HITS…

QuickHits

Amongst Oilers fans Petry’s value is often overvalued or undervalued. Some actually believe he is terrible and the Oilers would be better to deal him. I don’t agree with this crowd, but they exist. We’ve all read those opinions in the comments sections over the years. It is fine if you don’t like Petry’s style, but you should acknowledge he is a solid NHL defender, and now that he has 300 games experience under his belt we are seeing more positive plays than negative ones.

On the other end of the spectrum is the group who overvalue him.

He was comparing Petry to Nick Hjalmarsson. I looked at numerous underlying numbers and couldn’t find any that suggest Petry would be as good. Hjalmarsson faces tougher competition in Chicago than Keith/Seabrook, and he is an excellent defender. Petry has not played nearly as consistent in his career as Hjalmarsson to this point. Petry does many things well, but I’m sorry he is not in the same category as Hjalmarsson thus far.

If I was a GM, I would use Hjalmarsson’s contract as a point of reference for negotiating a deal for Petry. He makes 4.2 mill/year and is one year older than Petry. He has given up three years of UFA on his deal and D-men like Petry should not be get more than him.

However, sanity rarely occurs when July 1st arrives and it is possible Petry will get as much has Hjalmarsson or more.

PARTING SHOT…

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  • Craig1981

    He seems to be the top (or close) blue liner Ufa on a non-playoff team. If a couple injuries happen I could see his value gaining a lot of ground if a couple players go down.

  • toprightcorner

    I think the Oilers could trade Petry and their 2nd or 3rd round pick in return for a 1st round pick depending on the team. A team pushing to make the playoffs but finish 18-22nd in the league. Petry and a 2nd, a team expected to challenge for the cup and finish top 5 in the league Petry and a 3rd.

    I would rather have a 20th pick instead of having a 33rd and 50th.

    Just sayin

    • camdog

      “I would rather have a 20th pick instead of having a 33rd and 50th.”

      Well you could find a team that would take that offer up without including a player in it…

      • toprightcorner

        I think you misunderstood me.

        Option 1: Trade Petry for a 2nd which would be about a 50th pick and would still have our 2nd (Oilers would keep their 33rd pick and get a 50th)

        Option 2: Trade Petry and our second(33rd) for a 1st round pick (Oilers move up to 20th but lose their 33rd and don’t get the 50th like the above trade)

        The team we trade Petry to only drops about 13 picks from 20th to 33rd which is not bad for a rental and the Oilers end up with 3 first round picks a the deepest draft since 2003.

        I think that is a plausible trade.

  • toprightcorner

    It can’t be said too often… this is another horrendous mismanagement of resources. The Oilers will lose the ONE defensemen they actually managed to draft and develop properly. I’m not the world’s biggest Petry fan, but this is a bad defensive team losing it’s best defensemen. He’ll be missed.

    I would be pleased if they managed to get a respectable roster player in return that fills some kind of hole. A 2nd rounder would be nice, but I doubt they get more than a 3rd round pick and a “project” of a player.

    Such a shame.

    • They’ll lose him for nothing to a team that’s gong to pay him $5mm/yr long term. I’ll be surprised if petry signs for his actual value during the off season. Someone will over pay dollars and term and in 2 yrs we’ll be talking about how it’s an albatross contract crippling some basement dwelling team. It’s the same old story.

  • The Last Big Bear

    Another way to look at it is if they even bother trading him?

    If the best they get offered is a third round pick, and the result is the loss of their best dman for the rest of the season do you:

    A) take what you can get, even though the chances of future success with what you got is minimal.

    B) keep Petry, and use him the rest of the season to help improve the team, and end the season as positive as possible in the win column.

    I think B would be a better idea if they are going to get scraps for him. If the oilers can build some momentum, and finish the year off with an undeniably positive upswing heading towards the next season, maybe Petry even decides to stay?

    At this point I am sure he is waiting for the next 15 game losing streak like we are all scared is coming. However, perhaps.. just perhaps, this team is actually on to something with Nelson, and this team is catching momentum on the way to seasons end.

  • S cottV

    If the Oilers could have had their rebuild act together by now, there may have been a chance to keep him.

    He would want to stay for somewhat less money than he might get elsewhere – to be part of a winner.

    At this point – it’s take the extra money and get out of here and you can’t blame him.

    Very disappointing – to lose a guy that has come thru the system and is now going into his prime.

    Not a good sign.

  • Devolution

    There is a lot of talk about asset management with the Oilers and while I agree they have not been good I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of the market.

    People think of hockey players as an asset like a house, appreciating and depreciating along with the market for that specific commodity.

    In fact a hockey player depreciates more like a car, in lockstep with two things; his age and the length of time left that the team controls him. A player with only a few months left on his contract is not worth much, no matter how good he is.

    If you must cling to the house metaphor of asset depreciation, think of the house as being on leased land, and the lease runs out July 1st.

    • toprightcorner

      It would be interesting to see what percentage of players picked up as rentals at the trade deadline, sign for the same team the following year.

      I have zero stats to back it up, but surely there must be some sort of “foot in the door” type of benefit a team has when negotiating a rental pick ups proposed deal in the off season?

      • camdog

        My gut feeling is that, in recent years, teams making a run for the cup are at the high end of the salary cap and want some extra punch at a relatively low cost because they only have to pay the salary the remainder of the season…or have a player on LTI they need to replace. SO they are not re-signed and the player becomes UFA.

  • toprightcorner

    God there are some serious folks here who are in deep denial about the many wrong things!
    He’s a career -62. He’s on the Oilers 2nd pairing: consider that before fantasizing about over the top returns for Petry. He is solely a good depth Dman.
    The Oilers do not make deals from a level ground with other GMs. Serious sports journalists all know this.
    This is a hint for you all: MacT is so dumb that he’ll attempt to resign Petry right to the very last second… Then Jeff walks UFA and you lose him for nothing. Get used to it. It’s the management you have. Go all buy Petry jerseys now.

    • camdog

      Which site are you on where people are over valuing Petry? Debating if he’s worth a 2 nd or third round pick as long as we have may be lame, (which you are partaking in by the way), but what denial are you speaking of? I’m pretty sure everybody thinks he’s a pretty average d-man, that happens to play on a hockey team with no average d-man. If this team had an average NHL defence, nobody would be talking about Petry right now.

  • I’m gonna laugh my @ss off if they get a 4th and a 7th round pick for him!

    What playoff bound team is so weak on defence that they’d be willing to give up a 2nd rounder in a deep draft for 30 some games of Petry?? You think any gm is sitting there saying “we’re so close, I’m sure we could go on a run if only we had a guy like Petry?” Haha. Im betting on a 3rd round and maybe something else completely useless just so they can say there was somthing else

  • bwar

    Who cares. Resign him. They could use him. This bull crap talk about trading players away, when they need them is poppycock. What trade everyone away again to rebuild again. No offense but I’m sick of it…. I’m done rebuilding. Time to play some hockey.