It has been obvious to me since the beginning of the season that Jeff Petry was going to be traded. He will be a 27-year-old UFA on July 1st, and the temptation to see what teams will want to sign him and for how much money is too enticing to pass up.
The big questions are what is he worth in a trade and what type of salary will he command on July 1st?
What is a realistic return for Petry before the Monday, March 2nd trade deadline?
I looked at recent trades that involved D-men who were in the final year of their contracts over the past three seasons.
2014 NHL trade deadline (including the month leading up to deadline):
Andrew MacDonald for a 3rd round pick in 2014, a 2nd round pick in 2015 and Matt Mangene.
Stephane Robidas for a conditional 4th round pick in 2014.
Mike Weaver for a 5th round pick in 2015.
Nick Schultz for a 5th round pick in 2014.
2013 trade deadline (including the month leading up to deadline):
Jay Bouwmeester for a 1st and 4th round pick in 2013, Reto Berra and Mark Cundari.
Robyn Regehr for a 2nd round pick in 2014 and 2015.
Douglas Murray for a 2nd in 2013 and 2014.
Jordan Leopold for a 2nd and a 5th in 2013.
David Drewiske for a 5th round pick in 2013.
Scott Hannan for a 7th round pick in 2013.
2012 trade deadline (including the month leading up to deadline):
Kyle Quincey for a 1st round pick in 2012 and Sebastien Piche.
Johnny Oduya for a 2nd and a 3rd in 2013.
Pavel Kubina for a 2nd in 2012, a 4th in 2013 and Jon Kalinski.
Nicklas Grossman for a 2nd in 2012 and a 3rd in 2013.
Which D-men compare to Petry?
He isn’t as good as Bouwmeester, but some would say he is similar in style to Leopold, Quincey and Oduya at the time of the trade.
Quincey had 23 points in 54 games when he was traded, and the Red Wings were looking for an offensive defender. Quincey was also making $3.125 million at the time of the deal and re-signed a two-year deal with the Wings for $3.775 million/year before July 1st.
Oduya’s offensive stats are similar to Petry, he had 13 points at the deadline in 2012, while Petry has 10 in 46 games thus far. Oduya was making $3.5 million/year at the time of trade, but he re-signed with the Hawks on a three-year term for $3.383 million/year.
Leopold was 32 at the time of the trade and making $3 mill/year. He re-signed with the Blues for $2.25 million/year for two years.
Oduya might be the best comparison if you are looking at overall style of player. Petry has averaged .22 points/game over the past three seasons. Quincey was a more productive offensive player at the time of the deal, which is why he likely garnered a 1st rounder in return, but since going to Detroit he’s been more of a defensive defender with little offensive production.
Petry shoots right and is only 27 years old, and he’s becoming more consistent. A reasonable return for him will likely be a 2nd rounder and another pick or a prospect. There is an outside chance the Oilers could get a 1st rounder, but the only way that happens is if there is a bidding war, and some teams might offer a 1st in 2016 rather than 2015.
Best case scenario that I see is the Oilers receiving a 2nd round pick in 2015.
The fact that the 9th place team in the East, Florida, is seven points out of the playoffs already (with four games in hand), and 10th and 11th place Toronto and Ottawa are already ten points back, means more teams out east will be sellers. That could impact his value, because if there are more teams selling, the buyers might have to pay less.
Ideally, the Oilers would find a way to re-sign him rather than trade him for picks or a young prospect. The reason I don’t see him re-signing here is simple: nine consecutive seasons outside the playoffs. Unless the Oilers are willing to pay him $5 million+ a season, which would be an overpayment, I don’t see him staying, and even then I’m not sure money will be enough to entice him to stay here.
I understand why he would test the market even if the Oilers were a 9th or 10th place team and not in the basement. Going to UFA at 27 years young is a luxury, so why not see what is out there?
I’ve heard and read many in Edmonton suggesting Petry will command $5 million/year in free agency, but I don’t see any comparable to back that up.
Matt Niskanen received $5.75 million/year for seven years from the Capitals last summer, but he was coming off a 46-point season. The Caps should have recognized that was an anomaly, but many teams are desperate for offence from the backend so they overpaid.
They also signed 33-year-old Brooks Orpik to a 5-year deal worth $5.5 mill/year, but Orpik has won a Stanley Cup and played 92 playoff games. Petry doesn’t have the playoff experience of Orpik or offensive numbers of Niskanen.
Anton Stralman is a fair comparable in my opinion. He has solid possession numbers, and although Petry’s weren’t as good, you can safely say that much of that is due to him playing on a far inferior team than Stralman’s Rangers.
Stralman played 21 minutes a game for the Rangers during their run to the Stanley Cup Finals. Like Petry, he doesn’t bring much offence and plays mainly ES and PK. Stralman shoots right, and was also 27 years young last summer when he signed a five-year deal worth $4.5 mill/year.
Unless the Canadian dollar rebounds by ten cents before late June, it is very likely the salary cap will be around $71 million for next season, meaning Stralman’s figure would jive with Petry’s this year.
Petry’s lack of playoff success will hurt him during negotiations. Whether that is right or not, teams value players who have succeeded in the playoffs more than those who haven’t. They also are able to see how they react to the increased intensity and pace of playoff hockey.
I’d be surprised if Petry got more than Stralman’s $4.5 million, and I could see his new deal closer to $4.25 million/year.
Amongst Oilers fans Petry’s value is often overvalued or undervalued. Some actually believe he is terrible and the Oilers would be better to deal him. I don’t agree with this crowd, but they exist. We’ve all read those opinions in the comments sections over the years. It is fine if you don’t like Petry’s style, but you should acknowledge he is a solid NHL defender, and now that he has 300 games experience under his belt we are seeing more positive plays than negative ones.
On the other end of the spectrum is the group who overvalue him.
@JasonGregor I’d say based on underlying numbers and the teams they play on, that everything being equal, Petry is a better defenseman
— Jamie Wright (@JamieWright03) January 16, 2015
@JasonGregor they’re close, Hjal would be 3-4 for most too. Petry with a team that plays defense is better than Hjal without.
— Jamie Wright (@JamieWright03) January 16, 2015
He was comparing Petry to Nick Hjalmarsson. I looked at numerous underlying numbers and couldn’t find any that suggest Petry would be as good. Hjalmarsson faces tougher competition in Chicago than Keith/Seabrook, and he is an excellent defender. Petry has not played nearly as consistent in his career as Hjalmarsson to this point. Petry does many things well, but I’m sorry he is not in the same category as Hjalmarsson thus far.
If I was a GM, I would use Hjalmarsson’s contract as a point of reference for negotiating a deal for Petry. He makes 4.2 mill/year and is one year older than Petry. He has given up three years of UFA on his deal and D-men like Petry should not be get more than him.
However, sanity rarely occurs when July 1st arrives and it is possible Petry will get as much has Hjalmarsson or more.
Poker players…If you want to play in a great tournament this weekend and raise money for charity keep reading…
“All In to End MS” Poker Tournament
River Cree Casino
Saturday, January 24 at 7:15
Buy in is set at $300. A $150 tax receipt will be provided upon
Please RSVP to [email protected]
They only have five spots left, so if you want in, I recommend emailing today.
Recently by Jason Gregor:
- GDB 45.0: To Tampa and Beyond
- GDB 44.0: St.Louis, start of a tough stretch
- Monday Musings…
- GDB 42.0: Hall is healthy
- A new plan for Oilers development?
- Matt Fraser: Wise beyond his years