Silly signing season is upon us.

NHL free agency officially opens tomorrow at 10 a.m. MT and with more cap space available than good players, I fully expect we will see some contracts players get overpaid with contracts that will age poorly. I never blame the player. If a team offers them a massive payday, they will take it. However, being overpaid will come with extra criticism. It’s part of the deal. There are consequences to every decision.

The are different levels of overpay. I’d rather give a player a higher AAV, with a shorter term. The most pain comes from the term. Overpay a bottom-six player for one or two years, and you can live with it and take a swing, thinking it will pan out. Kind of like Connor Brown two years ago. It wasn’t ideal having him as a $4 million player, for essentially both years (bonus overages last year). But it doesn’t cripple a team for a long period.

I think Aaron Ekblad and Vladislav Gavrikov are prime candidates to be overpaid this year. Both are solid defenders, but both are slowing down, and seven-year deals for them will have a low chance of success. Ekblad fit perfectly in Florida’s system, as did Gavrikov in L.A.’s defensive structure, and even if they remain with those teams, seven or eight-year terms will not end well. See Marc-Edouard Vlasic as an example. **Ekblad re-signed with Florida for eight years at $6.1m just before posting this article.**

Oilersnation need not worry, the Oilers won’t be pursuing those two.

But the Oilers will look to make a big addition up front. I’ve heard Brock Boeser is on their radar. Boeser had a career high of 40 goals and 73 points in 2024. But that is a bit of an outlier. In his other seven NHL seasons, he’s more of a 23-29 goal scorer and 45-55 point scorer. He would give them a solid right-shot option to play with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. He isn’t fast, ranking below 50 percent among forwards with a top speed of 21.76mph and was also below in speed bursts of +20mph with only 44. His speed hasn’t changed in the four seasons NHL Edge has tracked it. He’s been between 21.5 to 21.8 each year. Speed is nice but it isn’t the most pressing need. There are many players who succeed without being a burner.

Boeser has developed his game from being only a shooter to a great net-front player. The Oilers need more guys around the net. He has excellent timing on screens and gets in “the eyes” of goalies. It often didn’t show up on the stat sheet, but he’d make a great screen that led to goals for Vancouver. The Oilers need more guys who are good around the net, not just with tips, but who screen the goalie, not stand to the side of him, which is what we saw too frequently in the Final against Sergei Bobrovsky.

Boeser is also a quality person, and while some might discount that, I think it matters a lot. Culture plays a role and everyone I’ve spoken to in Vancouver talks first about who they are as a person.

Another important component is that he maintains his production in the playoffs. He’s averaged 0.79 points/game in the regular season and 0.38 goals/game. In the playoffs, he’s 0.38 goals/game and 0.79 points/game with 11 goals and 23 points in 29 playoff games. The Oilers are in win-now mode and having productive playoff performers is vital.

The concern is how will he age? It is a valid concern, and a long-term deal will be challenging. Boeser needs a centre who can distribute the puck, and no team offers a better 1-2 punch in that regard than McDavid and Draisaitl. Boeser knows them well from playing them for the past eight seasons. And of course, AAV will be a concern. Most cap projections have him around $8.3 to $8.7 million AAV. That’s a lot for a player who’s surpassed 55 points once in his career. I understand the cap is increasing, but if they go that high, then they need a shorter term.

I suspect the Oilers will make an offer when the market opens tomorrow.

— The Oilers signed Kasperi Kapanen to a one-year deal with a $1.3 million AAV. He can kill penalties and is a bottom-six winger with speed and can be physical at times. Decent depth signing.

— They also signed Noah Philp to a one-year, two-way deal at $775K. Smart decision by Philp to sign for league minimum rather than accept his qualifying offer, which would have come in over $850K. In a tight cap, the lower AAV can help him remain on the roster. He will make $250K in the AHL and likely bargained for a higher AHL salary while taking the lower NHL salary. Philp will come to camp and compete for the fourth-line centre job. He will need to show consistency to remain in the lineup. He has the skill and speed to play, but finding that consistency is what will determine how many games he plays in Edmonton.

— The Oilers are still working to trade Viktor Arvidsson. Minnesota acquired Vladimir Tarasenko today ($4.75 million AAV) from Detroit for nothing (future considerations). Arvidsson won’t get much of a return at this point. I could see a deal with San Jose as the Sharks will need to get to the cap floor and taking on a one-year deal at $4 million could help them, plus Arvidsson can play. The issue is would Arvidsson want to go there? He does have a full NMC, so that is a factor. I know he wants to go where he feels he gets an opportunity to play more and produce more and help him land another contract next season. The Sharks do have one salary retention spot available now, so they might be interested in taking him and betting he has a decent year and then move him at the deadline.

— The Oilers need a new assistant coach to oversee the power play. Glen Gulutzan got the head coaching job in Dallas. Gulutzan had a great seven-year run in Edmonton with the Oilers and oversaw one of the greatest power plays the NHL has ever seen. Will Knoblauch hire an assistant/associate who has previous NHL head coaching experience? It helps having another coach on the staff who knows the stress and challenges of being an NHL head coach. I expect multiple new faces on the Oilers coaching staff this off-season.

— Had Chris Pronger on our DFO Rundown pod today. He had some great points about free agency, why systems should matter for GMs, and an interesting take on who is a big “buyer-beware” UFA candidate. He also spoke about the Oilers and McDavid. You can listen here. 

— Connor Brown will test free agency. No surprise. The Oilers were interested in signing him, but he likely can get more than they were offering. The Oilers would like a bit more edge in their bottom six and one option on right wing is Nick Cousins. Cousins can play wing or centre. In his 10 NHL seasons, he’s only been outshot once at 5×5. His goal share is just under 50 percent. But he doesn’t kill penalties. Taylor Raddysh is another option, although he’s not very physical. He didn’t PK much last year in Washington but did a lot in Chicago in 2024. The list of bottom-six RW is not long. Kapanen might just be their best option and play on 4RW, or they re-sign Corey Perry, but that will be a challenge due to the salary cap.

— I’m interested to see what type of contract Tanner Jeannot receives as a free agent. He can kill penalties and he’s very physical and tough. The odds are low he’s score 24 goals again, but scoring 10-14 is realistic. I’m not sure Edmonton will be in the mix, but with so much focus on “gritty playoff players,” I’m curious to see if he is more sought after than you’d think.

— Nikolaj Ehlers is another intriguing UFA. Unless he and the Jets have a miracle last-minute deal, he’ll test the market. He only had four goals in his first 37 playoff games, but this season he scored five goals in eight games. He was injured again, and that is the concern for me. How often will he be available in the playoffs? He’s missed an average of 11 games per season in his 10-year career. When health,y he’s been very good. He’s scored 21-29 goals nine times, and he’s had 60+ points four times and scored 50+ twice. He has excellent possession numbers, outscoring teams 457-335 at 5×5. He’s very good at transporting the puck up ice.