Let’s take a trip back in time to March 7, 2025 — a day so consequential that it paved the way for the next two Stanley Cup champions, significantly changing the balance of power atop the NHL.

Just minutes before the trade deadline that afternoon, the Florida Panthers acquired Brad Marchand from the Boston Bruins, solidifying their forward group for an eventual Cup-winning run that spring. As impactful as the Marchand trade was, it wasn’t even close to the biggest deal of the day. That crown goes to a trade that happened hours earlier, in which the Carolina Hurricanes sent Mikko Rantanen to the Dallas Stars for Logan Stankoven and a boatload of draft picks.

The deal sent shockwaves throughout the hockey world that are still being felt today. Rantanen helped the Stars complete a legendary Game 7 comeback against the Colorado Avalanche a few months after the trade, and Stankoven was a key contributor to Carolina’s Stanley Cup victory the following year.

It makes one wonder what the NHL would look like today if the Rantanen trade never happened. After all, the Stars weren’t the only suitors. The morning after the trade, TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reported that the Edmonton Oilers had taken a “huge swing” at Rantanen and were deep into extension talks with his camp. They just couldn’t reach an agreement with the Hurricanes.

That summer, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that Carolina had expressed interest in Evan Bouchard during Rantanen trade discussions. The Oilers elected not to trade Bouchard and couldn’t come up with an alternative package to get a deal done.

But what if the Oilers did pull the trigger on a Rantanen trade? Would they have won the 2025 Stanley Cup? Would they be better positioned today?

In our first alternate reality, the Oilers trade Bouchard to the Hurricanes for Rantanen. Let’s peek at how their roster might’ve looked with Rantanen in the mix, and Bouchard out:

Hyman – McDavid – Rantanen

Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson

Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Perry

Janmark – Henrique – Brown

Kapanen, Frederic

Walman – Klingberg

Nurse – Stecher

Kulak – Emberson

Ekholm (injured)

If having McDavid and Draisaitl is a luxury, then this forward group is caviar with gold leaves sprinkled on top. Adding a third superstar forward to the mix and pushing everyone else down the lineup would’ve given the Oilers a deep enough forward group to rival the Panthers.

The defensive core without Bouchard, however, looks… rough.

Walman and Klingberg were a fantastic puck-moving duo in the 2025 playoffs, and the Nurse-Stecher pair outscored their opposition at five-on-five. But without Bouchard or the injured Mattias Ekholm to take on the toughest matchups, it’s unlikely either pair would have replicated that success.

Part of what made the Walman-Klingberg duo so dominant was Edmonton’s ability to deploy them in softer minutes where they could outplay the opposition’s bottom six. Without Bouchard, that strategy is out the window.

Then there are the special teams question marks. Edmonton’s penalty kill struggled in the 2025 playoffs, but their lethal power play was enough to offset it for the most part. It’s tough to say whether that would remain the case after losing one of the NHL’s best quarterbacks. Rantanen replacing Nugent-Hopkins, and one of Walman, Klingberg, or Ekholm quarterbacking is probably enough talent to figure it out, but how long would the adjustment period be after disrupting a longtime unit?

Ultimately, the Oilers’ defensive core is too shallow on the right side to survive losing Bouchard, especially during the 2025 run when Ekholm was already on the shelf. Even with an elite forward group, asking any of Klingberg, Stecher or Emberson to play top pair is a recipe for trouble.

I’m not convinced this would have been the right mix to get the Oilers over the hump. If anything, they may not have even made it to the Final.

The Oilers probably made the right decision keeping Bouchard, but what if they found another way to make the deal? In our second alternate reality, Edmonton’s trade package is built around Matthew Savoie, with Viktor Arvidsson attached to make the cap work and a massive package of picks to at least match the Stars’ offer, which included two first-round picks and two third-round picks.

Admittedly, this one is pretty speculative without knowing how much the Hurricanes valued Savoie, but let’s assume, for this exercise, that with enough picks added, they would agree to the deal. Here’s how Edmonton’s 2025 playoff roster would have looked:

Hyman – McDavid – Rantanen

Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen

Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Perry

Janmark – Henrique – Brown

Frederic

Kulak – Bouchard

Nurse – Stecher

Walman – Klingberg

Ekholm (injured)

Now this is more like it. A futures-heavy trade package means Arvidsson is the only subtraction from the real 2025 playoff roster. Adding a superstar without sacrificing their defensive core makes this version of the Oilers much better equipped to compete with the Panthers, even with Zach Hyman injured. Where things get complicated is the following offseason.

The Oilers were up against the cap ceiling heading into 2025-26. If they had signed Rantanen to an extension (their offer was reportedly higher than Dallas’ $12 million AAV), they would have needed to shed significant salary to fit him into their long-term plans.

If they had never signed Andrew Mangiapane or Trent Frederic, traded Brett Kulak before the season, and replaced them all with league-minimum players, it still wouldn’t have been enough to fit in another $12.5-$13 million for Rantanen. Assuming none of their players were open to waiving their no-movement clauses, the only realistic way to remain cap-compliant may have been to dump Ekholm’s $6.25 million. Fitting Rantanen would have been doable, but tricky.

While this scenario positions the Oilers nicely, it may not have been realistic if the Hurricanes weren’t at all interested in their assets. In any case, it’s fascinating to think about the butterfly effect of the Rantanen saga. It was a move that carried the Stars to the Western Conference Final, won the Hurricanes a Stanley Cup, and left other fanbases wondering ‘what if?’