When the Edmonton Oilers acquired Mattias Ekholm ahead of the 2023 Trade Deadline, he completely transformed their blueline and pushed them toward Stanley Cup contention. Not only did he provide a steady two-way presence, but he also found instant synergy with the team’s up-and-coming offensive defenceman, Evan Bouchard. Fast forward a few years, and the Ekholm-Bouchard pair has now played over 3,500 minutes together. They’ve outscored opponents by 71 goals at five-on-five, and posted a 60 per cent expected goal share in that time.

In other words, complete domination.

Despite years of trotting out dicey second pairs, usually featuring Darnell Nurse next to a rotating door of failed experiments, Edmonton’s top pair kept the Oilers competitive with the league’s best. Ekholm has been one of the best trade acquisitions in franchise history, but the team is once again undergoing a major transition on defence. Stan Bowman dealt Nurse to the San Jose Sharks earlier this summer for Shakir Mukhamadullin and signed Ryan Shea. Their depth chart at left defence has a refreshing new look.

The Oilers have played a ton of hockey over the last three years — 299 games, to be exact — and Ekholm has become the team’s oldest skater at 36 years of age. So far, he’s remained effective next to Bouchard, but how much longer can he remain a top-pair star? And how soon can we expect one of the team’s younger blueliners to replace him?

After a fantastic first two years with the Oilers, the first signs of trouble began for Ekholm in March 2025. He suffered a major groin injury that kept him out of action for nearly two months, forcing him to miss most of Edmonton’s second consecutive run to the Stanley Cup Final. When he returned, he was clearly far from 100 per cent, and couldn’t help the team overcome the Florida Panthers.

Even after a couple of months to rest up, Ekholm’s mobility looked severely compromised to start 2025-26, and he and Bouchard experienced their worst run as a duo. In October, the Oilers were outscored 14-7 in Ekholm’s minutes, leading some to wonder whether he could ever be the same player again after his injury.

Those concerns were short-lived, however, and as Ekholm’s skating returned to normal, so did his overall performance. From Nov. 1 onward, he posted a 60 per cent goal share and 59 per cent expected goal share. Even though the Oilers took a step back as a team, Ekholm and Bouchard were as dominant as ever. Just as comforting was the fact that Ekholm played all 82 games and six postseason games. No additional injuries and no long-term effects from tearing his groin.

Ekholm will enter training camp this fall as healthy as he’s ever been, but also as old as he’s ever been. With that in mind, what’s a realistic expectation?

The effect of aging curves is inevitable in professional hockey. NHL players typically hit their peak in their mid-20s, then slowly plateau and decline in their 30s. But each player is slightly different, and some can remain effective much longer than others. There’s reason to believe Ekholm could be one of the few who can still contribute deep into their 30s.

First, he plays defence, which can be a more forgiving position for players in physical decline. If a defenceman has excellent gap control and awareness of their physical limitations, they can still defend well even with slower boots. Look no further than Connor Murphy, who produced some of the best defensive results in the league last season despite being one of the slowest players in the NHL.

Second, Ekholm’s physical decline hasn’t even shown up yet. At least not in the skating data. A quick glance at NHL EDGE’s player tracking shows that Ekholm’s top speed and 20-plus m.p.h. bursts were both higher last season than they were in his first season with the Oilers, when he was still 32. He’s done an excellent job taking care of his body so far, which should give him excellent longevity.

There is no glaring evidence that Ekholm’s days as a top-pairing defenceman are up. Not in his results. Not in his physical ability. Not anywhere, really. With that said, he will inevitably slide his way down the depth chart eventually, and the Oilers should have the insurance to make it work. When he’s healthy and at his best, Jake Walman has demonstrated his ability to play on the top pair. He did it both in Detroit and San Jose before he arrived in Edmonton. Shea’s prowess as a puck retriever could make him a natural candidate to succeed Ekholm, too.

When his three-year contract extension expires, Ekholm will be 39 years old. By then, he won’t be playing as many high-leverage minutes anymore, but how soon that shift takes place is anyone’s guess. The Oilers have options if his game declines sooner than anticipated, but so far, there’s little reason to expect it to happen right away when the puck drops in September.

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