Mikko Rantanen an Edmonton Oiler?
It may be a far-fetched thought and maybe even a pipe dream, but in the eyes of St. Louis Blues reporter Andy Strickland, the Finnish winger signing in Edmonton might be exactly what happens this summer.
Strickland talked about it on Tuesday’s edition of his podcast with former NHL tough guy Cam Janssen.
Strickland: Carolina, there’s some pressure on them. They went out last year and got Jake Guentzel and didn’t sign him… (If) you don’t re-sign Rantanen, that’s going to be a tough look for Carolina, too.Who is going to pay Mikko Rantanen the big bucks?… Edmonton. He’s going to Edmonton. How? They’re going to be able to pay him, number one, and I think that there would be some interest from him.Janssen: How are they going to be able to pay him?Strickland: Don’t ask me to break down the cap (but) there’s some belief they can make that happen. You have to look at who is coming off the books and all that kind of stuff, the salary cap going up, however they structure it. Teams obviously create space, players come off the books, the cap goes up. If the cap goes up the way it should and the way a lot of people think that it should, it’s not long, Cam, before we’re at $102 (million), $104.I’m not making any predicitons and saying this is guaranteed. I’m just saying watch out, and don’t be surprised if he ends up an Edmonton Oiler. And who knows, maybe he falls in love with Carolina and they throw a bunch of money at him.
Janssen’s question is the right one. How on earth could the Edmonton Oilers make a move like this happen? Far from simply, that’s for sure.
It would require some surgery to the roster, further tough decisions, and as Strickland alluded to, some help from a rising salary cap. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman projected that increase to rise the salary cap to $92.5-million for next season, which would be huge for the Oilers.
Before we dig into the how, let’s dig into the why. For one, Strickland highlighted how Oilers star Leon Draisaitl and Rantanen have the same agent, Octagon’s Andy Scott. That would be a nice assist to start with, but the allure of playing with some of the games best would surely be of interest to Rantanen. It’s not that the Carolina Hurricanes don’t have high-end talent, but they don’t have a Draisaitl or a Connor McDavid or a Nathan MacKinnon or a Cale Makar.
For two, the Hurricanes aren’t believed to have had any advanced discussions with Rantanen prior to acquiring him, and there’s no certainty they are able to re-sign him.
Lastly, Rantanen has expressed disappointment in being dealt from the Avalanche, with The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reporting that the winger was willing to take less money to stay in the Mile High City. LeBrun said in his report he “would imagine (that number) even being around the $12.6 million” MacKinnon made, but that the number was still seen as too lofty for the Avalanche. Despite that, he was reportedly looking for Draisaitl money in the $14-million range on the open market.
From the Oilers’ perspective, they would be adding another game-breaking talent to the roster to partner with an already impressive group. There’s no denying that he would elevate the roster to another level.
So that’s the why, but what’s the how?
That’s the multi-million dollar question. Off the top, Evan Bouchard is in need of a new contract, and the Oilers would surely like to go long-term with him, locking him up for as long as possible. But if they go that route, there’s virtually no way they could sign Rantanen long-term.
Let’s say, for the sake of this argument — which sees the salary cap at Bettman’s $92.5-million projection — the Oilers give him a two-year, $6-million AAV bridge deal, walking him to free agency. That dollar figure is the same as his defensive partner, Mattias Ekholm, makes on his current deal. It buys the team some time for the salary cap to continue to increase, a benefit for the team, and allows Bouchard to continue to grow and potentially earn more money on his next deal, a benefit for him.
The Oilers would need to bring some players back to help fill out the roster, so all of Corey Perry, Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Brown and Noah Philp re-sign on a one-year, $1-million deal, while Ty Emberson gets a three-year, $1.5-million AAV extension. That leaves the Oilers with just $3.725-million in cap space — just a little shy of the MacKinnon benchmark.
More money will need to come off the books, so the Oilers find a way to get out from the final year of both Evander Kane and Adam Henrique’s contracts. They account for $8.125-million against the cap, and for the sake of the argument, the Oilers retain 30 percent of their remaining salaries in the trades needed to move them.
That then gives the Oilers $10.225-million and change to work with — still not quite enough. Or is it?
We’ve seen the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes utilizing contracts with deferred salaries involved for Frank Vatrano and Seth Jarvis. LeBrun said in his aforementioned article the Oilers presented a similar deal to Draisaitl last summer, but his agent wasn’t up for it. That’s fair and their right, but we’re going to say there’s been a change of tune in this world, and Rantanen’s willing to do it.
Rantanen hits free agency and wants to sign a deal worth $12.5-million per year over seven years, totalling $87,500,000 over the length of the deal. If 60 percent of that salary was deferred over seven subsequent years after his contract is up, according to PuckPedia‘s deferred salary calculator, that would help take his cap hit down to $9,918,713.
The scenario, as seen above, leaves the Oilers with a short roster and little cap space, but it’s a cap-compliant roster. All of this, mind you, is in the world where there’s a $92.5-million cap, but some speculation has already arisen this year that the number could climb to between $95-million and $97-million. It goes without saying that would make a move like bringing in Rantanen that much easier, too.
If the salary cap continues to rise in the following years as it’s expected to, that’s gravy.
Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.