The Oilers are rested and highly motivated.
It has been one week since they sent Vegas golfing with their 1-0 OT victory in Game 5 of the Pacific Division Final and Edmonton will be very fresh as the Oilers make their 12th appearance in the Western Conference Final. The Oilers are 8-3 all-time in the WCF and are looking to become only the sixth team in NHL history to defeat the same opponent in back-to-back Conference Finals. The Oilers beat Dallas in six games last season, and it started with a double OT victory in Game 1 in Dallas.
Last year, Game 1 started cautiously as the teams combined for only 10 shots in the first period. However, the Oilers scored twice in the first 4:17 of the second to take a 2-0 lead. The Stars rebounded 1:53 later to make it 2-1 and Tyler Seguin tied the game with his second goal of the night with 3:23 remaining in the third as a shot took a lucky bounce off a skate and ricocheted right to him, wide open on the back side of the net. The first OT had no goal before McDavid scored 32 seconds into double OT for the win.
What stood out in the series for me was how the Oilers eventually figured out how to slow down Dallas. The Stars only scored four goals in Games 4-6. Granted, Skinner was excellent in Game 6, stopping 33 of 34 shots, but as the series went along, the Oilers got better, which has been a trend for them under head coach Kris Knoblauch.
Edmonton is 16-2 in Games 4-7 with Knoblauch, while they are 7-11 in Games 1-3. They did improve that, v. Vegas winning the first two games on the road last series, but the winning% shows that once the Oilers play a few games against an opponent, they figure out tendencies and counter them. They have a .388W% in the first three games compared to an .888W% in the final four games.
The series win over Vegas was the first time they won the first two games of a series under Knoblauch, and the first time since 2017. It is difficult to win both games, but they got off to a good start and then continued their domination later in the series, posting back-to-back shutouts against Vegas in Game 4 and Game 5. That start was another step as the Oilers continue to improve and grow as a team. They’ve been a good defensive team for the past few years, but in the last seven games, they’ve had games where they’ve been dominant defensively.
In Game 5 against LA, the Kings produced three HD chances in the game.
In Game 1 v. Vegas, the Golden Knights had six shots and two HD chances in the final 50 minutes. They had five the entire game.
Game 2. Vegas had a total of seven HD chances.
Game 4. Vegas had a total of seven HD chances, and five were at 5×5.
Game 5. Vegas managed a total of two HD chances the entire game.
Those stats are courtesy of Clear Sight Analytics. For Comparison, the Oilers gave up 14 in Game 1 v. LA. It is difficult to allow that few HD chances every game, as Vegas did have 11 in Game 2, but Edmonton’s commitment to limiting quality chances against is a main reason they are 8-1 in their last nine playoff games.
Vegas led the NHL in goals off the rush in the regular season, but the Oilers limited the Golden Knights to three in the series. Dallas was second in the regular season in goals off the rush, and the Oilers will need the same discipline in limiting rush chances v. the Stars. They’ve proven they have the wherewithal to do it, and as this group continues their quest to win a Stanley Cup, they’ve shown an ability to improve all facets of their game.
The other element that has improved this postseason is their depth scoring. Every player is contributing offensively. I outlined yesterday how the Oilers’ four lines have been much more productive than Dallas’ thus far. The Oilers’ forwards have 26 goals at 5×5 while Dallas has 16, and the Stars have played two more games. The production across the lines gives the forwards a lot of confidence heading into this series.
“Oh, I think it brings a much higher level of confidence,” said Evander Kane. “When you have belief that everybody can contribute up and down the lineup, and not only do you believe it, but you’re seeing it. Because seeing is believing a lot of the time. As a group, we feel very confident that our depth can go up against anybody else’s depth. I think, even guys we have out of the lineup, they can come in and contribute to what you saw with Kapy (Kapanen). So, for us, it’s something that we know that’s going to need to continue, if we want to reach the ultimate goal.”
I asked Kane about the Oilers’ ability to adjust as the series goes and how that has led to them winning 16 of 18 games later in a series.
“I think the majority of the adjustments are subtle things usually in the D zone, in terms of trying to defend a little bit better,” said Kane. “I think offensively through the course of the season, when you’re playing different teams every other night, you’re doing small adjustments. Whether the weak-side forward’s going to slash or the weak side forward’s going to stay, those are little things you get used to offensively in terms of making adjustments and same things on the forechecks.
“Certain teams like to rim pucks out. Other teams like to come with the strong side wall. So maybe having a little bit stacked on the strong side to prevent them and get them doing something different. I think it’s just different ways to try to get the puck back offensively. But once you have the puck, you’re doing the same things over and over again and just trying to take what the other team gives you. I think most of the key adjustments are made defensively and our coaches have been very good at bringing them up and the players have incorporated them well thus far,” said Kane.
Edmonton limited Vegas’ biggest strength, goals off the rush, and they will look to do the same against Dallas. The Oilers are the quicker team, and if they play as disciplined as they did against Vegas, they should win the series.
Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

SNAPSHOTS…

— The Oilers are 3-3 in Game 1s of a series the past two seasons, after going 0-7 in Game 1 from 2020-2022. It is another area they’ve improved.
— Zach Hyman has eight goals in his last six Games 1s dating back to last year.
— Connor McDavid has 30 points (6-24-30) in the 15 Game 1s he’s played in. Leon Draisaitl has 28 points (14-14-28) in the same 15 games.
— McDavid enters tonight with 134 career playoff points. He is tied with Guy Lafleur, Brendan Shanahan, Joe Thornton and Corey Perry for 44th all-time, but tonight is only his 86th playoff game, while Lafleur has played the fewest of those four players with 128 games.
— Mikko Rantanen leads the playoff scoring race with 19 points in 13 games. He’s been all or nothing. He has 17 points in five games and only two in the other eight. He’s had dominant periods inside games with hat tricks in two different periods. McDavid has 17 points in 11 games. He has points in nine of 11 games, and he has had two 3+ point games compared to Rantanen’s five.
— Evan Bouchard’s career averages of 1.09 points per game in the playoffs and 0.69 during the regular season rank as the biggest improvement (0.40) in NHL history, among players with a minimum 50 GP in both. Forward Jude Drouin (1969-1981) is second with a difference of 0.26 after producing 0.68 PPG in the regular season and 0.94 in the playoffs. Bouchard’s ability to elevate his game in the playoffs is very impressive, and he will need to be great again as Dallas has arguably the best defence pairing in the league with Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen. Bouchard already has 70 career playoff points in 64 games. His next point will move him ahead of Guy Lapointe (123 GP) and Zdeno Chara (200 GP) and into 37th place all-time in playoff scoring among defensemen.
— Perry will tie Larry Robinson for seventh place in playoff games played tonight at 227. If the series goes seven games and Perry plays in all seven, he will tie Scott Stevens for fifth all-time at 233 games played.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl –Kapanen
Kane – Henrique – Brown
Frederic– Janmark– Perry
Kulak – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Walman – Klingberg
Skinner
No lineup changes. The biggest question will be: Which matchup does Kris Knoblauch want? He never chases a matchup, but in Game 5, he did have Draisaitl’s line out against Jack Eichel more than McDavid’s line. Draisaitl is up for the challenge of slowing down the Stars’ top line. They’ve scored nine of the Stars’ 16 goals by forwards at 5×5. Rantanen has six of them, and I expect Knoblauch will try to get them out there as often as he can without disrupting his lines. He is very confident that all of his lines can play against them if need be.

Stars

Granlund – Hintz – Rantanen
Robertson – Duchene – Johnston
Marchment – Steel – Seguin
Benn – Bäck – Dadonov
Harley – Heiskanen
Lindell – Ceci
Bichsel – Petrovic
Oettinger
Yesterday at practice, the Stars changed their bottom three lines. The Benn-Duchene-Seguin line struggled to score in the first two rounds. They combined for 1-2-3 at 5×5. Jason Robertson has no points 5×5, so head coach Peter Deboer moved people around. He wouldn’t commit if they will play 11-7 or 12-6 tonight, but with Miro Heiskanen fully healthy, I’d lean towards them going with 12 forwards and six D-men. Oskar Bäck would draw in on the fourth line, while Ilya Lyubushkin could come out. We won’t know officially until game time.

TONIGHT…

GAME DAY PREDICTION: For the first time in my GDB career, I’ve picked five consecutive playoff outcomes correctly. Let’s try for six. The Oilers improve to 5-2 on the road with a 4-2 victory.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid passes Lafleur and company as he continues his ascent up the playoff scoring charts.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Kane scores his first career playoff goal against Dallas.