For the second consecutive season, the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars will meet in the Western Conference Final in what should be a tremendous series. The Oilers won last year’s series in six games after getting off to a strong start with a double overtime victory in Game 1 on the road.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Considering their reputations entering this postseason, it is somewhat surprising to consider that the Oilers’ overall process has been much more sound than that of the Stars throughout their respective playoff runs. Edmonton has received more balanced play from up and down the lineup and has not relied upon Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to steal games in the same manner as in years past.

The Oilers have played to a 57.35% expected goal share at even strength throughout this postseason run, which is the highest mark of any team aside from the Colorado Avalanche, who played seven games against the Stars in Round One.

Aside from the analytics, it has been easy to see that after a pair of sloppy performances in Games 1 and 2 versus the Los Angeles Kings, the Oilers have played a well-rounded team game and have been able to minimize their mistakes defensively.

The Oilers have seemingly found the optimal way to deploy their defensive core and suddenly have two pairings performing at a very high level, as well as a solid third pairing of Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher. Edmonton’s defensive core could be looking even more formidable later on in the series if the team’s top shutdown defender, Mattias Ekholm, does return, but it has been confirmed that he will miss at least the first two matchups of this series.

Jake Walman has performed like a true number-one defenseman throughout this postseason, as he holds a dominant underlying profile, alongside a dominant +13 rating for those who don’t believe in new age metrics. He and John Klingberg have formed a surprisingly dominant second pairing that has outscored opponents four to two and holds a 66.7% expected goal share.

Based on today’s morning skate, head coach Kris Knoblauch will be sticking with a top line of Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman, a line that holds a 78.1% expected goal share in 26.8 minutes of play this postseason. Knoblauch also appears to be keeping Vasily Podkolzin, Leon Draisaitl, and Kasperi Kapanen together on the second line, a unit that has done a tremendous job defensively.

Edmonton’s power play has succeeded on 25% of opportunities this postseason, which ranks sixth among all playoff teams. By no means has it been a weakness, but it has not been as dominant as in previous postseasons, and the fact that Edmonton has arrived at this point somewhat comfortably despite fairly modest special teams play could be viewed as a positive.

Stuart Skinner closed out the Oilers series versus the Golden Knights with back-to-back shutouts and now holds a -2.2 GSAx rating and .896 save percentage. He was very sharp in the Western Conference Final last season versus the Stars, and should be entering this matchup with plenty of confidence after back-to-back flawless performances.

The Stars have played a higher level of competition than the Oilers to get to this point, as they knocked off two teams that were thought to be full-fledged Stanley Cup contenders.

With that said, their overall brand of hockey has been far less convincing than the Oilers. They have been highly reliant on elite goaltending from Jake Oettinger and timely scoring to steal games while being outchanced by their opponent, and have clearly caught some big breaks in key moments, such as Mason Appleton whiffing on a wide-open net late in Game 6 versus the Jets.

The Stars hold a 48.53% expected goal share in even-strength play this postseason and a 47.84% expected goal share across all strengths. Oettinger holds a +6.8 GSAx rating and a .919 save percentage, which has helped them post a 4-0 record in games decided by one goal.

The Stars have been outscored across the entirety of the postseason, as they have generated 2.62 goals per game while allowing 2.92 goals against per game.

Dallas has allowed 3.47 xGA/60 during the postseason, which is the fourth-worst mark of all 16 playoff teams and is a continuation of its treacherous defensive play in the final six weeks of the regular season. Miro Heiskanen’s return to the lineup will go a long way to helping alleviate that concern, but even with Heiskanen back, the Stars’ defensive core is not looking overly convincing.

As Heiskanen continues to get up to speed and comfortable handling a hefty workload, the Stars’ defensive play will likely be considerably improved from what we have seen over the last three months. Still, their offence has been surprisingly one-dimensional, and their overall game has not been nearly as sharp as the Oilers’.

It could partly be due to the fact that Dallas has battled through two cup contenders to get to this point, but the Oilers have looked far more dominant in all facets of the game throughout their current playoff run. There is also always the chance that McDavid and Draisaitl steal some games if the Stars do prove to be better than expected in terms of controlling the overall level of play, as we have seen in years past.

At a price of +105, there looks to be more value backing the Oilers in Game 1, as, based on what we know entering this series, they are in better form. Edmonton also went 3-0 in a tough road environment versus the Knights, which suggests home ice advantage may not be all that relevant in this matchup price-wise.