In the salary cap era, we’ve watched 1,691 playoff games (I didn’t include the play-in round in 2020) and only 51 times has a team won the game scoring one goal. Teams win 3.1% of the games in the playoffs when they score one goal. The Edmonton Oilers have played five playoff games in Florida the past two seasons, and they’ve scored one goal, or fewer, in four of them. Not surprising, they’ve lost all four.

They lost 3-0 in Game 1 in 2024.

They lost 4-1 in Game 2 in 2024.

They won 5-3 in Game 5 in 2024.

They lost 3-1 in Game 7 in 2024.

They lost 6-1 in Game 1 in 2025.

They are 1-4 in Florida and have been outscored 18-8. In their other 18 road games they are 12-6 and have outscored teams 59-48.

The Oilers didn’t struggle scoring goals in L.A., Vegas, Vancouver or Dallas. Over the past two seasons, those teams ranked second (L.A.), fourth (VGK), eighth (DAL), and 10th (VAN) in goals against/game on home ice. They were all solid defensive teams, but the Oilers found ways to score. Florida has also been good (fifth), but the Oilers are scoring half as many goals in Florida as they did against those teams.

The initial response might be to think Florida is just better. That could be true, but Boston, Carolina, Toronto, Tampa Bay and the New York Rangers found ways to score in Florida.

The Panthers have allowed one goal or fewer in eight of their playoff home games. Four of them have come against the Oilers, while Toronto, Tampa, Boston and New York did it once.

I don’t buy that the Oilers’ offence can’t be more productive. They’ve been horrific at 5×5.

The Oilers have two — yes, two — 5×5 goals in five road games. They’ve scored once at 4×4, three times on the power play, once shorthanded and one into an empty net.

In 212:38 of 5×5 time Edmonton has two goals. Mattias Janmark scored on a breakaway in Game 7 on a stellar pass from Cody Ceci.

And in Game 5, Connor McDavid scored from a sharp angle.

The Panthers have scored 12 goals 5×5 and at least two in all five home games against the Oilers.

Edmonton needs to find its offensive punch in Florida, or they won’t win this series.

— The Oilers need to get more traffic in front of Sergei Bobrovsky. Without Zach Hyman, they don’t have a many players who are comfortable in front of the net outside of Corey Perry. It won’t be easy, but they need to get in his eyes more. They have two layered screen shots in the series, and one of them resulted in a goal. I don’t expect them to suddenly have five or six a game, but they need more traffic in front, especially with their blueliners shooting the puck more.

— Their shot placement is another factor. Bobrovsky rarely gets beat low. The Oilers have nine goals in the series, and none have been on the ice.

Game 1:

Draisaitl from the right side scored a rebound goal with pretty much a wide-open net, he buried it middle of the net past a sprawling Bobrovsky.

Arvidsson down the left wing, beat Bobrovsky low glove, just above the pad.

Ekholm from the left side beat Bobrovsky mid glove.

Draisaitl in OT, from the right-side beat Bobrovsky mid glove on a one-timer.

Game 2:

Kane down the left wing, beat Bobrovsky high glove.

Bouchard in the slot, after shot was blocked he got it back in the slot and beat Bobrovsky high blocker.

Draisaitl from the right side, beat Bobrovsky mid glove on a one-timer. That was the ridiculous McDavid toe-drag around Ekblad.

Perry from the slot, slapped a rebound mid blocker.

Game 3:

Perry from the right-side beat Bobrovsky low glove, above the pad. He stopped Bouchard’s point shot-pass, pulled it outside and shot it over Bobrovsky’s pad.

The Oilers have wasted some of their best chances in the slot, by trying to beat Bobrovsky on the ice or a few inches off the ice. Get him going side to side and shoot mid to high either glove or blocker.

— Evan Bouchard has 24 shots on goal in three games. The Panthers’ entire D corps has 31. The total shots on goal in the series are 125-105 for Edmonton, but shots by forwards favour Florida 74-72. I have no issue letting Bouchard rip shots, he has a great shot, but they need more traffic in front of the net. And having a D-man average eight shots/game isn’t ideal, even someone with as good of a shot as Bouchard has.

— I see and read many suggesting the Oilers’ PP should just give it to Bouchard and let him rip it. Bouchard leads the Oilers with seven PP shots this series. He has no goals. Leon Draisaitl has three shots and two goals. The Oilers’ PP is most dangerous when Draisaitl or McDavid are the most frequent shooters. Neither are massive high-volume shooters, but historically the PP isn’t successful with Bouchard taking the most shots.

Here’s a look at the 2024 regular season (RS), 2024 postseason, (PS), 2025 regular season, the first three rounds of this year’s playoffs (1st 3R) and the Florida series. This is the shot/60 rate for each player.

Bouchard is shooting much more frequently than usual. Normally he’s the fourth-most frequent shooter. I realize it is a small sample size (three games), but every series is short, and the Oilers need to get Draisaitl more involved as a shooter.

— Since 2023 the Oilers are 9-0 in Game 4s, however, seven of those games were on home ice. Tonight, they are on the road.

R1 2023 @ LA. Oilers won 5-4. Trailed 2-1 heading into Game 4.

R2 2023 v. VGK. EDM wins 4-1. Trailed 2-1.

R1 2024 @ LA. Win 1-0. Led 2-1.

R2 2024 v. VAN. Win 3-2. Trailed 2-1.

R3 2024 v. DAL. Win 5-2. Trailed 2-1.

R4 2024 v. FLA. Win 8-1. Trailed 3-0.

R1 2025 v. LA. Win 4-3. Trailed 2-1.

R2 2025 v. VGK. Win 3-0. Led 2-1.

R3 2025 v. DAL. Win 4-1. Led 2-1.

— Stuart Skinner has played well in Game 4s in his career. He is 6-0 with a .956Sv% and 1.26 GAA. That includes his first Game 4 appearance v. LA in 2023 when he allowed three goals on 11 shots and was pulled. Edmonton came back to win the game, and Jack Campbell got the victory. In his other six starts, Skinner has allowed five goals. They will need another strong performance from him tonight.

No lineup changes for the Panthers. They dominated the Oilers in Game 3 and can take control of the series with a win tonight. This is as close to a must-win as you can get for the Oilers.