Fifteen of the Edmonton Oilers’ final 29 games are against Pacific Division opponents.

The Oilers are in a battle for first place with Vegas, but Anaheim is suddenly right behind the Oilers after winning seven consecutive games, so home ice for the 2-3 matchup will also be settled down the stretch. Edmonton is 6-2-3 against divisional foes so far this season and tonight will be the first of three meetings against the Ducks this season.

The Oilers dominated the Ducks during the 2022, 2023 and 2024 seasons winning 10 of 11 games, but last season the Ducks won three of four meetings. The Ducks are vastly improved this season, and they arrived in Edmonton last night bursting with confidence. The Ducks started this season very well going 19-10-1 in their first 30 games. They had the fifth best points% in the NHL through 30 games, but then they went 2-11-2 in their next 15 games and were the worst team in the NHL in that span. Some, including myself, wondered if the Ducks’ inexperience would ground them, again, but the Ducks didn’t let that rough stretch continue. They dug in and have won seven in a row thanks to a 4-3 overtime victory in Calgary last night.

Rookie Beckett Sennecke registered his first hat trick and first three-point game of his young career. What’s most impressive about the Ducks’ seven-game winning streak is they’ve done it without their top two forwards. Troy Terry hasn’t played since January 6th when he was injured v. Philadelphia. He’s missed nine games. Terry had 42 points in 43 games before his injury. Four days later, their #1 centre, young Leo Carlsson, got hurt against Buffalo. Carlsson has 44 points in 44 games. The Ducks lost their two leading scorers, but this active winning streak began the game after Carlsson was hurt. The Ducks have shown incredible resiliency to not only play well without their two best forwards, but also excel.

Sennecke has seven points in seven games. Cutter Gauthier has 3-3-6. Jackson Lacombe and Mikael Granlund have five points. Jeffrey Viel, who was acquired from Boston two weeks ago, has 2-1-3 in five games. Twelve different skaters have goals during the streak and 17 have points. But the main reason they are winning is their low goals against total. The Ducks have only allowed 13 goals in seven games, mainly due to Lukas Dostal.

Lukas Dostal is 6-0 with a .931Sv% and 1.93 GAA. He was unreal stopping 40 of 41 shots v. Colorado and he’s been great in his other games. Ville Husso is 1-0 and allowed one goal on 18 shots on January 17th v. Los Angeles. but he didn’t face one high danger chance that game. That was the second half of a back-to-back and Husso is expected to get the start again tonight. The Ducks locked it down that night defensively, although the Kings are far from a dangerous offensive unit.

The Oilers have scored 5+ goals in three of their last five games. They are the third highest scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.38 goals/game. Edmonton can score, but the Oilers have allowed 13 goals in their past three games. They need to tighten up defensively. Tonight is a big game when you look at the standings. Ottawa did Edmonton a favour yesterday spanking Vegas 7-1. Edmonton trails the Golden Knights by two points and Vegas has two games in hand, while the Ducks are only one point behind Edmonton and they have one game in hand. The Oilers’ inability to get on a winning streak yet this season has them in a fight for home ice advantage.

The good news is they play Anaheim and Vegas three times each down the stretch. Edmonton is 8-3-1 over Vegas since 2023, but they need to be better against Anaheim than they were last year. Not facing Dostal tonight, combined with the Ducks playing their third game in four nights and second half of a back-to-back, are advantages Edmonton needs to use in its favour.

Anaheim is 4-2-1 on the second half of BTB games, however, all seven games were against teams currently not in the playoffs. They are 3-0 against Western Conference opponents in LA, Winnipeg and St. Louis, while they defeated Columbus, but also lost to them in OT and lost in regulation to Ottawa and Philadelphia.

This is another game where Edmonton has a “schedule advantage.” They outplayed Washington on Saturday but made it way too hard on themselves and needed a heroic performance from Evan Bouchard to win. They were awful against Pittsburgh and didn’t show up for the first two periods against New Jersey and lost. They need to reverse that trend tonight and beat a team without two of its best players and battling fatigue. The Oilers have lacked a killer instinct in games this season and need that instinct from the opening faceoff tonight.

— Evan Bouchard had one of the greatest games by a defenseman in NHL history on Saturday. He was incredible in all facets of the game. He scored his first career hat trick. He had three assists. He was +5, had eight shots on goal, two blocked shots, a big hit and his play to keep the puck in at the blueline kept the Oilers in the game. I think Bouchard gets overlooked at how great he actually is, because he plays on the same team as Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Also, because we are in the highlight era, where more people watch highlights than actually watch games, I find there is more emphasis on the big giveaways, rather than all the good plays he makes. He makes way more good plays than bad — like 10-15x more good plays — but many can’t seem to get past a bad turnover.

— But on Saturday, Bouchard was an absolute beast in all facets of the game. He also logged 29:25, his third highest total this season. There have been 71 occasions where a player has logged 29+ minutes this season. Nathan MacKinnon is the only forward to do it, and he did it in the game the Ducks defeated the Avs 2-1 in a shootout. The other 70 were D-men and only 13 other games did one have one goal. Bouchard is the first to have three goals, more than three assists and no player had better than a +2 compared to Bocuhard’s +5.  It was an amazing performance. Since TOI was tracked in 1997-98, Bouchard has the most points, tied for most goals and tied for the best + rating of any player to log 29+ minutes in a game.

— This season the only players with four games of 29+ minutes include Quinn Hughes (20x, 12 with MIN and eight with VAN), Zach Werenski (8) and Bouchard, Miro Heiskanen and Jackson Lacombe (4). Lacombe and Bouchard will be on the ice tonight. Hughes is averaging 28:12 in his 21 games with the Wild. Ryan Suter and Drew Doughty are the only players to average 29+ minutes/game during a full season. Suter averaged 29:25 in 2014 and 29:04 in 2015, both with Minnesota while Doughty logged 29 minutes in 2015 with LA.

— Bouchard is one of only five D-men in NHL history to score at least three goals and three assists in one game.

What you witnessed on Saturday hadn’t happened in 34 years. It was the 14th time in Oilers franchise history a player had at least 3-3-6 in a game. Wayne Gretzky did it eight times while Don Ashby, Glenn Anderson, Dave Lumley, Sam Gagner, Connor McDavid and Bouchard have done it once.

— Bouchard is now tied for second with Zach Werenski in scoring among D-men with 55 points. They are one point behind Cale Makar. Lane Hutson is fourth with 53 points. It sets up for a great race down the stretch.

— McDavid’s 13th career five-point game was overshadowed by Bouchard’s effort on Saturday, but McDavid now leads the NHL with 90 points. McDavid is the sixth player in NHL history to score 90+ points in 10 different seasons.

McDavid, Dale Hawerchuk and Jaromir Jagr did it 10 times.

Mario Lemieux had 11.

Marcel Dionne had 12.

Gretzky had 17.

McDavid needs 10 points to reach 100 for the ninth time in his career and he’ll only trail Lemieux (10) and Gretzky (15). McDavid is guaranteed to finish second in most 90+ point seasons and most 100+ point seasons. He has a legitimate chance to catch or pass Gretzky in both.

Kasperi Kapanen returns to the lineup, while Josh Samanski will make his NHL debut. Samanski has had a strong rookie season in Bakersfield with 7-21-28 in 39 games and he leads Bakerfield in even strength points with 24. He’s also really improved on faceoffs. “The first couple weeks, especially the rookie games and preseason games, I wasn’t really good,” said Samanski. “In the North American game, faceoffs are more of a focus. I have been practicing a lot with the group of centres in Bakersfield, and they’ve been great at helping me. I’ve watched closely in games what works for others, and I’ve been able to learn and adapt different strategies. It has been fun, and I feel I’m getting better, but I still have a lot to learn about faceoffs.”

The Oilers had an optional skate this morning, so the above lines are a guess. Kapanen and Roslovic might swap, but either way the third line will have some speed.

Killorn – Granlund –  Sennecke
Viel – Poehling – Gauthier
Kreider – Harkins – Strome
Johnston – Washe – Moore

Lacombe – Trouba
Zellweger – Gudas
Mintyukov – Helleson

Husso

The Ducks’ forward group is decimated by injuries with Carlsson, Terry, Mason MacTavish and Frank Vatrano injured, but they’ve managed to win seven in a row. Edmonton has more offensive punch and they should be able to outscore them, as long as they play sound defensively. Edmonton is 22-1-4 when scoring first, while the Ducks have allowed the first goal 31 times. Anaheim is 12-16-3 when allowing the first goal. They have the 10th best winning% when allowing the first goal, while the Oilers, despite their high-powered offence, rank 29th in w% at an ugly .154 when they allow the first goal. The Oilers are 4-18-4 when the opposition scores first. The Ducks’ blueline has produced the fifth most goals of any D corps in the NHL. The Oiler forwards need to be alert in the defensive zone.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers have made this homestand much harder than it should be, outside of the 5-0 win over St. Louis. But Edmonton ends the Ducks’ winning streak with a 5-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid produces two points. He has 54 points in his last 27 games dating back to December 1st.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Spencer Stasney picks up his first point as an Oiler. He has no points in 22 games after producing nine in 30 games with Nashville.