The dance of mediocrity is often one step forward, one step back, or two steps forward, two steps back. It’s not where you want to be, and this season the Oilers reside in mediocrity. They have enough skill and talent to rise above the mushy middle, but through 17 games, they’ve struggled with consistency.

Their come-from-behind victory over Columbus saw them play with more emotion and energy than we’ve seen all season, at least in the first, third, and overtime periods. The second frame was a repeat of much of their early-season play, where they lacked energy, determination, and execution. Luckily, they found a way to recover and win the game, but tonight is the first game of a season-long seven-game road trip, and they need to avoid taking a step back.

The Oilers are struggling to find their game. They’ve had six games where they started well and earned a two or three-goal lead, but then relinquished it. They are also the only team in the NHL with two victories where they overcame a two-goal deficit in the third period. Their inconsistent play is more period-to-period than just game-to-game.

They’ve won consecutive games only twice this season, and both times the second games weren’t strong performances. Stuart Skinner bailed them out in New York during a 2-0 win, while they needed three goals in the final 8:41 to defeat Montreal 6-5. Edmonton has yet to play two consecutive solid games. I’m not talking about dominating games, just two solid games, where they limit giveaways and create offensive chances.

Their offence is still struggling to generate 5×5. Monday night was only the third game this season in which the Oilers have scored at least three goals 5×5. Only one team has done it less. Here’s how all 32 teams rank in games with 3+ goals at 5×5:

10: COL.
9: CAR, TOR.
8: ANA.
7: NYR, OTT, VGK.
6: BUF, CHI, CBJ, MTL, STL, TBL, WSH.
5: FLA, NJD, NYI, STL, UTA, WPG.
4: BOS, DET, LAK, MIN, PIT, VAN.
3: CGY, DAL, EDM, NSH, SEA.
2: PHI.

The Flyers have done it twice. The Flyers are 31st in 5×5 goals with 25 in 15 games, but they rank 27th in 5×5 goals/GP at 1.67. Edmonton ranks 26th at 1.7 goals/GP. This could be a slog offensively tonight, as neither team scores much 5×5, and they don’t give up many shots.

The Oilers rank 19th in SF/60 at 26.19, while the Flyers rank 27th in SF/60. However, Philadelphia ranks second in SA/60 at 23.12, and Edmonton is third at 23.61. We might not see many shots or scoring chances tonight at 5×5. The Oilers have to become more assertive in the offensive zone, and despite what many say online about the Oilers’ blue line shooting too much, the truth is the lack of offence is partially due to their blue-line shooting WAY less than last season.

Here’s a look at the Oilers’ shots on goal, blocked shots, and missed shots through 17 games last year and this season.

Year	Shot on Goal	Blocked	Miss Net	Total
2024-25	189	164	76	429
2025-26	166	147	68	381

They have 23 fewer shots on goal and 48 fewer shot attempts. And here’s a breakdown of their top five D-men.

Bouchard	Shot on Goal	Blocked	Miss Net	Total
2024-25	46	60	17	123
2025-26	45	34	13	92

Same shots on goal, but 26 fewer blocked. However, his 5×5 totals are down. More on that below.

Ekholm	Shot on Goal	Blocked	Miss Net	Total
2024-25	46	30	17	93
2025-26	32	24	15	71

Ekholm has 14 fewer shots on goal.

Nurse	Shot on Goal	Blocked	Miss Net	Total
2024-25	43	29	20	92
2025-26	36	29	21	86

Nurse has six fewer shot attempts through 17 games.

Kulak	Shot on Goal	Blocked	Miss Net	Total
2024-25	23	19	7	49
2025-26	20	19	6	45

Kulak’s numbers are very similar, just three fewer shots on goal.

Walman	Shot on Goal	Blocked	Miss Net	Total
2024-25	30*	25*	18*	73
2025-26	16	23	9	48

Walman has played 11 games, and I used his San Jose totals (*) last season as a comparable. His shots on goal are down significantly.

Then I dug a bit deeper and looked at 5×5, and that’s where the big drop has occurred.

Bouchard had 35 shots (4 goals) last year and has 27 (0 goals) this season.

Ekholm dropped from 42 down to 29.

Nurse had 37 last year and has 35 this season. He leads blueliners with three goals 5×5 this season.

Walman had 20 last year with San Jose and has 14 with Edmonton.

Kulak had 23 last season and has 19 this year.

The Oilers’ top pair of Bouchard and Ekholm has combined for 56 shots at 5×5 this season compared to 77 last year. They need more shots, not fewer, from that pair.

SNAPSHOTS…

— The Oilers are 2-4-2 in the McDavid/Draisaitl era in Philadelphia. Oddly enough, their only two victories came when they shut out the Flyers. Mikko Koskinen stopped 39 shots on March 1st, 2022, in a 3-0 victory, while Cam Talbot stopped 35 shots on March 3rd, 2016. The Oilers had 31 shots on goal in each game.

— Historically, Edmonton hasn’t had much success in Philadelphia. They are 13-27-2-2 all-time. They are 2-10 in the month of November. They won a November game in 1982 and 2008. Edmonton has played more games in November in Philadelphia (tonight will be the 13th) than in any other month of the season. They are 0-4 in October, 4-2-1 (T) in December, 2-3 in January, 2-5-2 (OTL) in February, and 3-3-1 in March. Can they avoid another November loss?

— Edmonton has struggled to score goals in Philadelphia during the McDavid/Draisaitl era, with only 22 goals in eight games. The only Oilers in the lineup tonight with a road goal in Philly while wearing an Oilers jersey are McDavid, Draisaitl (three each), and Mattias Ekholm (one).

— Adam Henrique does have eight goals in 18 career games in Philadelphia. He has 17 career goals in 37 games against the Flyers, the most against any NHL opponent. The Oilers have 10 skaters in their lineup tonight who have never scored a goal in Philadelphia, with Trent Frederic, Mattias Janmark, Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak, Jake Walman, Evan Bouchard, Ty Emberson, Matt Savoie, Noah Philp, and Isaac Howard. Philp and Howard will play their first game in Philly.

— McDavid has 33 points in 17 games vs. Philly, but only nine in eight games in Philadelphia. McDavid played his best game of the season two nights ago, and we’ll see if he builds off of it. It wasn’t just his two goals. It was how he attacked most of the game.

— The Flyers rank 26th in offense, averaging 2.67 goals per game (40 in 15), but they’ve been one of the best defensive teams, allowing only 2.60 goals against/game, which is fifth best in the NHL. They are 6-3-1 on home ice, and their PK has been stellar at 90% allowing only three goals on 30 kills. They haven’t allowed a PP goal in their last six home games.

— The Oilers are an ugly 2-5-2 on the road, and lately, blowing two-goal leads has been their nemesis. They’ve led 2-0 in three of their previous five road games, and they blew the lead in all three. They led 2-0 in Ottawa before winning the game 3-2 in overtime. They led 2-0 in St. Louis but lost 3-2, and they led 2-0 and 3-1 in Dallas before losing 4-3 in a shootout. Good starts haven’t been the issue lately on the road; not sitting back after a good start has been their weakness.

— Edmonton has to avoid a shootout. The Flyers are 3-0 in the shootout with five goals on eight attempts, and their goalies have stopped seven of nine. The Oilers are 0-2 in the shootout with two goals on 11 attempts, while Skinner has stopped seven of 11. Trevor Zegras has the second-best shootout% (minimum 10 attempts) with 15 goals on 23 shots (65.2%). Do you know who is first? I’ll give you a hint: he was a defenseman. *Answer is at the bottom of the article.*

LINEUPS

Oilers…

Mangiapane-McDavid-Savoie
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Howard-Henrique-Frederic

Janmark-Philp-Lazar

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Emberson

Skinner

Zach Hyman won’t play tonight, but he will either draw in tomorrow in Columbus or Saturday in Carolina. He will bring a lot to the lineup. I’m a bit surprised Ty Emberson, who struggled moving the puck vs. Columbus, remains in over Alec Regula. Emberson’s effort is never an issue, but his puck skills aren’t as good as Regula’s. Andrew Mangiapane needs a strong game, and it might not matter, but when Hyman returns, I could see Mangiapane going down the lineup. Matt Savoie is just snakebitten. He can’t get a break around the net, but I’ve liked his game. He’s making plays, creating turnovers, and using his speed. I’d like to see him and Hyman flank McDavid for a few games when Hyman returns.

Flyers…

Zegras-Couturier-Michkov
Foerster-Cates-Brink
Tippett-Dvorak-Konecny
Deslauriers-Abols-Hathaway

York-Sanheim
Seeler-Drysdale
Andrae-Juulsen

Vladar

Dan Vladar has had a great start with Philadelphia, going 6-3 with a .917Sv% and 2.18 GAA. While only two of his nine starts have come against teams currently in a playoff spot (Montreal and Ottawa), you could counter that the reason Florida and Toronto are out of a playoff spot currently is due to losses (twice for FLA) against Vladar and the Flyers.

The Flyers, Kraken, and Rangers are the only teams without at least one forward with 6+ goals. Edmonton just has to avoid their 10-bell giveaways that have plagued them this season. The Flyers’ offense hasn’t created a lot, so the Oilers must avoid gifting the Flyers a goal.

Game Day Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk

TONIGHT…

GAME DAY PREDICTION: At some point, Edmonton will play better. They won’t be great tonight, but good enough to win 3-2.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid produces two points, including a goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Matt Savoie becomes the 69th Oiler to score a goal in Philadelphia. Nice.

*Petteri Nummelin scored eight goals on his 10 shootout shots. He played the 2007 and 2008 seasons with Minnesota. In 2007, he scored on six of his seven shots, and in 2008, he scored twice in three attempts. He was elite in the shootout. Nummelin was drafted in the fifth round of the 2000 NHL draft by Columbus at the age of 27. He came directly to the Blue Jackets and played 61 games in the 2000/2001 season. Then he returned to Lugano in the Swiss Elite League and played five more seasons. Then he signed with the Wild, played two seasons, and produced 29 points in 78 games. He returned to the Swiss league for five more seasons and then played three more in his home country of Finland. He played until he was 44 years old.*

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