The NHL draft lottery looms large as the weekend approaches.
For the first time ever the second worst team in the NHL is guaranteed
only at least the fifth position in the NHL draft. Even a year ago the
Oilers, who finished 29th, would be guaranteed third by virtue
of the fact that only one team could leapfrog them.

This change makes a huge difference for the Oil. There are the big three in the 2016 NHL Draft. It’s Matthews, Laine, and Puljujarvi headlining
the big show in June. Three big forwards: one centre, two wingers, and all a
combination of size and skill. After those three players there’s the expected drop off.
However slight that drop-off might seem, the difference between third
and fourth could be enough to entice the Oilers to move the pick for
immediate help on the blue line.

Of course, the argument might be that the Oilers have been
open to moving the pick for a long time, but the players in the top three are so
talented that it would entice the club to keep the pick and move roster players
for that help. It’s really just splitting hairs. All that really matters is
Edmonton can pick anywhere from 1-5 and even with the second best
odds of winning the lottery they pick fourth or fifth more than 60% of the time.

For a very long time, I didn’t even want to know about the
prospects because I was adamant that the Oilers should simply move the pick for a
defenseman (not just any slug) and finally address an organizational weakness.
Even if the Oilers select fourth or fifth it still might be a
reach to take the highest rated defender. But, let’s for a moment assume they
do go that route.

The top slated defender to go in this year’s draft is 18 year old defenseman Jakob Chychrun of the Sarnia Sting. Chychrun is
a beast at 6’2” and 217 pounds and he has good, but not great, offense. He’s also another lefty. So, if the Oilers draft for organizational need, take the best
available defender, they still aren’t actually drafting for organizational need.
They aren’t getting a right-handed defenseman who could conceivably grow to be
a top pairing guy.

And, if they do take that defenseman, they could be waiting
three or more years for a kid to mature enough to be an NHL player, let alone a
difference maker in the NHL.

That scenario nets the Oilers a good young player. One who
should have an NHL career, but who is also blocked at his natural position by
Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Reinhart, Davidson, etc.

It’s really not a great scenario for Edmonton.

Let’s then imagine the Oilers win a spot in the top three of the
NHL draft. Bill Daly flips over the card, calls Edmonton’s name, and gifts the
franchise the chance to take one of these gifted Finns. Now Edmonton gets to
draft Laine or Puljujarvi, sign them to a bonus-laden ELC, and we spend the
rest of the summer drawing hearts over a Maroon-McDavid-Laine combination. We
giggle ourselves to sleep through July and August and spend September high-fiving
strangers on the LRT.

Can Edmonton afford another ELC deal to a sniper who is
going to be set up in the slot by McDavid for 82 games? Can the Oilers afford
NOT to trade an established roster player for help on the right side of the
blueline? Will this season of Game of Thrones be better or worse without having
to follow any source material at all?

Then, what would the Oilers do if, hockey gods willing, they
actually won the right to choose first overall? Surely it would take a
week or so for Toronto to stop burning, but after that it’s difficult to
predict what the Oilers would do next.

They could select Matthews first overall in June
and convert him to wing, they could move RNH out (not advisable but
understandable), they could opt not to select Matthews at all and take Laine instead. Or, perhaps, could the not yet appointed new GM of the Coyotes be
persuaded to move a prized Ekman-Larsson for a hometown hero?

Maybe the Oilers win first but move down to three by
swapping picks with that team (also unknown until Saturday if this scenario
even makes sense) and also taking a RHD capable of playing in the top four.

The fact of the matter is that the possibilities right now
are so numerous that it’s almost impossible to pick a direction and explore
deeper. That changes after the lottery. After Saturday night, the table will be
set for the NHL draft and Chiarelli will know exactly where he and his fellow
GMs stand.

Edmonton’s pick right now has a lot of value. By the end of
this lottery the value of that pick could drop dramatically. There is a massive
difference between drafting 2nd and drafting 5th.

What I can say with a fair amount of confidence is that
Peter Chiarelli is going to make a significant change to this roster over the
summer. However, I don’t think he knows exactly what he’s going until he knows
exactly what he has. I imagine he has a lot of scenarios juggling right now.
With each lottery ball that gets pulled up by the machine, another that Chiarelli
has been juggling will fall to the ground.

We’ll know a lot more by Saturday night.