The Anaheim Ducks entered this series as the underdog with fourteen players making their playoff debuts against a team with back-to-back Stanley Cup appearances.

The Edmonton Oilers were expected to win, but the Ducks gained a 3-1 series lead, before dropping Game 5 in Edmonton. And tonight, for the first time in the series, the Ducks might feel some pressure to win. They are on home ice, with fans hungry for the organization’s first series win since defeating the Oilers in the second round in 2017, and now the expectations have changed. The Ducks earned 3-1 series lead and after Game 4 the expectations to win increased.

The Oilers have dealt with playoff pressure for the past five seasons. They’ve won series after trailing 3-2, 2-0 and 2-1 multiple times. Tonight, will be their 13th must-win game since 2022. They are 8-4 in the previous 12. They have numerous scenarios to draw from and remain poised and calm, or at least try to remain poised and calm. The Ducks aren’t in a must-win game situation tonight, but winning at home would give them a few days off and save them from needing to win Game 7 on the road. How will the Ducks handle the pressure?

The Oilers need another good start. Edmonton has scored first in the previous five games. The Oilers scored 38 seconds into Game 4 and took at 2-0 lead at 6:32 and in Game 5, Vasily Podkolzin scored at 2:22 followed by Zach Hyman (8:33) and Leon Draisaitl (10:13). The Oilers have played with the lead for much of the past two games. They led for over 48 minutes in Game 4 and led for 57:38 in Game 5. They sat back and played very safe hockey in Game 5. It worked as the Ducks didn’t score a goal five-on-five, but it isn’t the ideal strategy. More on that below.

The Oilers played their best game of the series on Tuesday. They didn’t gift the Ducks any goals or many quality scoring chances, and when the Ducks had chances, Connor Ingram was solid. Edmonton came out firing, led by Podkolzin. He was all over the ice his first few shifts, winning battles, being physical and he scored a great goal beating Lukas Dostal upstairs. Evan Bouchard had his best game of the series. He was excellent and made two outstanding plays that led directly to goals.

Bouchard enters the zone one-on-three, and rather than just dumping the puck deep, he stops and slides backwards to create time and space. He keeps his head up and fires a dart to Podkozlin. Great play by Bouchard and a great shot from Podkolzin.

The Ducks scored 8:26 into the second period on the power play to make it 3-1. They now had outscored Edmonton 10-4 in the middle frame including 5-0 on the man advantage. The Oilers got a power play 16 seconds later and Bouchard stepped up again. Bouchard’s patience and poised at the blueline set up Draisaitl’s second goal of the game. Not many players will make that play under pressure that Bouchard makes.

You need your best players to show up in big games and once again, Bouchard, Draisaitl and Connor McDavid did. The trio combined for six points on Draisaitl’s two goals, while Bouchard assisted on Podkolzin’s goal. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two points and Zach Hyman scored. Their top guys produced, while their depth forwards didn’t give up any goals against and Curtis Lazar and Matt Savoie drew penalties. Lazar leads the Oilers with three drawn penalties this series. He hasn’t scored, but he’s contributed.

Edmonton will need their top guns leading the way again tonight, while their depth guys have to play like Podkolzin — with relentless energy and pace. Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen have been the Oilers’ two best players thus far. They’ve scored big goals, been physical and excellent on the forecheck. Kapanen’s GF-GA at five-on-five is 7-0 thus far. Those two have been the energy leaders for Edmonton and will need to continue that tonight.

I expect Anaheim to come out energized like they did in Game 4 when they outshot the Oilers 20-7 in the first period. Edmonton has to match their desperation, and they need to use their experience in big moments to their advantage and scoring first for the sixth consecutive game will add more pressure to a young Ducks club. Scoring first in must-win games has been huge for the Oilers.

2022:
Round one, G6 @ L.A.: McDavid at 1:40. Edmonton wins 4-2.

G7 v. L.A.: Ceci at 33:15. Edmonton wins 2-0.

Round three, G4 v. COL: Makar scores 3:46 in. Colorado wins 6-5 in OT.

2023:
G6 v. VGK: Marchessault scores 24 seconds in. Vegas wins 5-2.

2024:
Round two, G6 v. VAN: Dylan Holloway scores at 8:18. Oilers win 5-1.

G7 @ VAN: Ceci scores at 21:16. Oilers win 3-2.

Round 4, G4 v. FLA: Mattias Janmark scores at 3:11. Oilers win 8-1.

G5 @ FLA: Connor Brown (shorthanded) at 5:30. Edmonton wins 5-3.

G6 v. FLA: Warren Foegele scores at 7:27. Edmonton wins 5-1.

G7 @ FLA: Carter Verhaeghe scores at 4:27. Florida wins 2-1.

2025:
Round 4, G6 @ FLA: Sam Reinhart scored at 4:36 and Panthers win 5-1.

2026:
Round 1, G5 @ EDM: Podkolzin scored at 2:22 and Oilers win 4-1.

In the previous 12 must-win games Edmonton is 8-0 when scoring first and 0-4 when allowing the first goal. Granted, Colorado, Vegas and Florida were all the Cup winners the years they beat Edmonton, and if the Ducks do score first, the Oilers can’t wilt. The Ducks are good, but are they Cup-winning good? Not yet, at least in my eyes.

I believe experience matters the deeper you go in the playoffs, and there is added angst in Game 6 compared to earlier in the series. The Oilers have scar tissue from previous years. In theory they should be able to handle the stress and pressure of tonight. They need to add pressure to the Ducks and see how they handle it.

— I noticed many fans suggesting that Kris Knoblauch is coaching the Oilers to sit back. The theme around this notion was based on the Oilers expected goals for (xGF%) when leading wasn’t good enough. However, if you look at last season, playing with a lead wasn’t a major issue overall.

The first two games against L.A. they trailed the entire time. Only game where leading was an issue was Game 3 were they had a 2-0 lead but lost it before winning 7-4. Rest of the series never had issues with lead, although didn’t lead for a lot other than in Game 6.

They beat Vegas and Dallas in five games each.

Oilers did blow a 2-0 lead in Game 3 and then Vegas won game 5-4 with one second remaining in regulation.

Oilers posted shutout wins in Games 4 and 5 and Game 5 no one led as Kapanen scored in OT to win 1-0.

Against Dallas Edmonton lost Game 1 allowing five goals in the third. Ugly 20 minutes.

But in the rest of the series, the Oilers never trailed and led for 54:09, 45:48, 46:14 and 57:29 and won those games by scores of 6-3, 3-0, 4-1 and 6-3. It was never really close.

In the Cup final against Florida, the Oilers led for only 33 minutes the entire series and they never had a two-goal lead. Playing with a lead wasn’t what cost them. It was the fact they rarely had the lead.

However, the Oilers did sit back in Game 5. It didn’t cost them as the Ducks didn’t score a five-on-five goal the entire game. The Oilers played ultra safe in the third period.

I asked Kris Knoblauch about how they defended the lead.

“I thought we sat back, I thought we really sat back and obviously what happens when a team is down, they push,” said Knoblauch. “They spend more time in the offensive zone for the team that’s down, it’s just the way it is.  But I certainly thought we sat back way too much. We just didn’t connect, I thought we were too safe. We were just always getting the pucks out of trouble, but what happens is they just come back and attack right away. Instead of making some passes, there is a fine line, you don’t want to always be safe. I thought in the last two periods we were always being safe, and what happens is it just allows the other team to play with the puck.”

I followed up by asking when you see it happening in the third period, what is your message on the bench. Do you tell them they had a guy open when they flipped it out?

“On the bench you’re not going to draw new plays or tell them exactly what was available on that play because it had passed and the chances of that happening again exactly is rare. On the bench you’re trying to encourage them to make plays and tell them it is there. You know, not always forcing the safe play, so it’s just reminders they have the abilities, they have the talent that they can make those passes.”

Ultimately it is up to the players to make decisions and plays on the ice. And considering the Ducks never scored and didn’t generate a lot of high danger slot shots, I didn’t expect Knoblauch to rip his players on the bench, especially with a three-goal lead. But it is fascinating how often we see teams sit back when defending a lead. I think anyone who has coached at any level has experienced that. All year you preach to your players to get the puck out of the zone, so I can understand why in the playoffs late in a game teams resort to “just get it out.” But it isn’t ideal, and Knoblauch will remind his team why it is a dangerous strategy. The challenging thing is it is difficult to match the desperation of a team who is trailing. They naturally are more desperate.

— I asked former NHLer and Stanley Cup winner Mike Rupp about teams sitting back and why it happens.

Rupp: It’s a great point. The coaches always told us to not sit back and even as players talking amongst one another on the bench saying let’s make plays, let’s get going, let’s keep on the gas and all those things that we hear teams always say.  I think the biggest thing is your areas of the ice you must win become more important or you’re paying more attention to it. Like getting the puck out of your blue line and in at their blue line or gaining the red to get the puck deep and I feel like what you end up doing is once you gain the red you’re just you’re dumping pucks over and over and that’s fine as those are the proper plays in a lot of ways, but you’re also giving up the puck a lot so unless you’re forechecking hard and retrieving you’re kind of just giving it giving it up.

It is okay doing the right plays, but you also must continue to forecheck, and I feel like that’s an area that kind of drops off when teams quote-unquote sit back. You aren’t coached to do it, but you do because you start thinking about not getting caught deep. It’s tough because you want to make a team come 200 feet, we say that all the time in hockey, but at the same time if you’re going to give them tons of opportunities to come 200 feet they’re eventually going to be able to do it so you have to put pressure on them and make them make some mistakes along the way.

Rupp: Honestly, I don’t know, because you are right those things get said. I think in those moments you feel like you’re making the right play. I think doing the right play has been hammered in our head so much that you just figure I’m gonna make that right play, but then you must continue that play. It’s not just gaining the red and putting it in. You must still pressure them.

As a player where my whole game was the forecheck, and I was good at it, but at times when we were winning it (forecheck) would be a little more passive. I don’t know why, to be honest, and coaches reminded me, but sometimes you just are a bit more passive. It isn’t right because you can still be aggressive in the way you fight to get the puck back and still make the right decisions defensively. It is something teams need to get over, but it is harder than you think in the moment.

Rupp: When you asked me that question earlier about sitting back, the Wild was the first thing that came to mind. The game has evolved so much that we rarely see teams trap, and even less now do we see the 1-3-1 because we’ve seen how boring it is, but it gives the opposing team too much as far as letting them have the puck in their hands. If we’re being honest that’s kind of foreign nowadays. The current game is not a league built on protecting leads. It’s a league built on scoring goals and so now suddenly when you start trying to be smart in these things you don’t have a system where you’re set up in a we’re going to execute this neutral zone trap. It isn’t played that way, and now when teams sit back it is more of a conscience decision from the players, even though they should be still attacking or making good breakouts.

Rupp: He will remind them to keep pushing when they have the lead. He will probably show a few examples of where players had time to make a play and show examples of players making a similar play on a breakout earlier in the game. A lot of time the players start thinking more than playing so you stop moving your feet. I think that’s a big thing that you would see in those types of videos where you get the puck and then make the high flip. He will likely say you made the right play by getting it out, but let’s get our feet moving so we might be able to turn this into some more offensive chances.

And for sure he will show video of successful forechecks where they were moving their feet and creating turnovers. He will remind them of playing with offensive instincts at the other end of the ice. Certainly, the message will be you did make the right play (high flip or dump in) but there is a better play and that is pushing the pace and keeping them on their heels.

— Have the Oilers sat back at times in the playoffs when leading? You bet, but I don’t believe it is coaching. It is human nature to resort to the safe play and just get it out. Edmonton has shown, last year against Vegas and Dallas, that they can lead and outscore the opposition. I think it is a bit misleading to say Edmonton has a problem sitting back. Yes, they have done it at times, but it had zero to do with them losing in the Cup Final.

— Leon Draisaitl tied Wayne Gretzky’s Oilers franchise record for most power play goals in the playoffs on Tuesday. Draisaitl has 23 PP goals in 101 playoff games, while Gretzky had 23 in 120 games. Draisaitl will break the record soon. McDavid is 6th all-time with 14 power play goals. Brett Hull holds the NHL record with 38 power play goals. He played 202 games. Draisaitl could push for that record in the coming years.

— Bouchard had three points on Tuesday. It was the third time in his career he’s had three points in an elimination game. Ray Bourque is the only other D-man in NHL history with more. He did it four times.

— Max Jones skated yesterday on his own. He is progressing well and if the Oilers move to the second round, he will be an option early in the second round.