Through the first half of the season, Trent Frederic’s start with the Edmonton Oilers after signing his eight-year deal hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, with only three points through 45 games.

As someone on the outside looking in, you can only speculate as to why — perhaps he’s still feeling the effects of the injury from last season, or maybe it’s simply still taking him time to adjust to the team. That said, the word that’s been sticking with me lately is confidence, which is something that can’t be tracked by data, or even the finest of technologies, at least to my knowledge.

Recently, Connor McDavid’s father, Brian, spoke about confidence while explaining the heater his son is on, recently extending his point streak to 20 games, saying, “Confidence is a huge thing, even for a player like him.”

Additionally, this past week I interviewed Vasily Podkolzin’s skills coach, Ned Lukacevic, and when I asked him what stands out most about Podkolzin’s improved offensive instincts this season, among a few things he mentioned was “confidence.”

Confidence, in life or in sports, is an important factor, and even professional athletes making millions of dollars struggle with it. For Frederic, this is purely speculation, but you don’t need a PhD to guess that his confidence — with only three points on the season after signing the biggest contract of his life — has likely taken a big hit.

And trying to dive further into the player’s mindset, I feel that at the start of the season, Frederic struggled with an identity issue. He played on the first line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the preseason, stayed there for only a couple of games in the regular season before the experiment was abandoned, and was then dropped to the bottom six. At that point, the question for him becomes: am I a top-six player, or a north-south, bottom-six physical guy?

And while Frederic was trying to figure out his identity on the team, the season wore on, and the points didn’t come. Thereafter, the 27-year-old likely started gripping the stick tighter and overthinking plays. In a hockey hotbed like Edmonton, that kind of pressure can weigh on a player, and I’d imagine his confidence on the ice hit a low point, and it’s been an uphill climb ever since.

Then comes the healthy scratch against the Nashville Predators on Jan. 6, which I’d imagine is one of the more difficult spots an NHL regular can find themselves in.

The Oilers beat the Predators 6–2 on Jan. 6, while Frederic had a bird’s-eye view from the press box. However, perhaps sitting out was the wake-up call he needed, because he’s been very noticeable in every game since — something he hadn’t been during stretches throughout the season.

The rugged winger returned to the lineup the following game, and with his team trailing 3–1 against the Winnipeg Jets in the second period, Frederic became the catalyst for the Oilers’ comeback.

His fourth line went to work late in the second, getting a puck on net and stirring the pot after the whistle. That led to Frederic picking out the biggest guy in the pile — the 6-foot-7, 231-pound Logan Stanley — dropping the gloves with him and landing the cleanest punch of the tilt for his third fight of the season.

You have to give credit where it’s due to Frederic for engaging in that tilt, because it was a turning point in the game. Minutes later, Connor McDavid scored a gorgeous goal late in the period, setting the stage for the Oilers to come back and win the game.

Since then, Frederic’s play seems to be trending upward, and with it, maybe his confidence too.

Frederic didn’t register any points in the next game against the Los Angeles Kings. Still, it was a momentum-building effort, finishing with a couple of hits, winning 80% of his faceoffs, and the advanced metrics show he tilted the ice in the Oilers’ favour. According to Natural Stat Trick, he posted the following at 5v5 in 9:19 of ice time:

• 63.64 CF%
• 55.52 xGF%
• 60 SCF%
• 100 HDCF%

After that, the St. Louis, MO, native carried that momentum into the next game against the Chicago Blackhawks, in what I feel was one of his best games of the season.

The Oilers’ forward fired three shots on goal, which was significant considering he hadn’t registered one in his previous four games. Additionally, head coach Kris Knoblauch found ways to give Frederic more ice time, showing greater confidence in the forward. On one shift, he was lined up alongside Draisaitl and Podkolzin for a defensive-zone faceoff, which resulted in a 3-on-1 chance. Frederic opted to shoot, but couldn’t bury it.

Once again, no points on the night, but when I checked the team’s advanced metrics after the game, Frederic’s numbers were eye-popping, posting a 9–2 edge in shots, 14–3 edge in scoring chances, 5–1 edge in high-danger chances and 83.52% xGF.

He led the team in several underlying metrics against Chicago, with him and his line pushing the pace throughout the night. Considering that, it would have made sense to keep his line with Curtis Lazar and Mattias Janmark intact for the next game against the Predators. However, with Isaac Howard sitting out the previous game and the team likely wanting him to get a game in during the Oilers’ dads trip, Lazar was out, Howard was in, and Frederic was moved to center in Nashville.

As a whole, the metrics for the Howard-Frederic-Janmark line against the Predators weren’t great, having been scored on after a Howard giveaway. However, there weren’t any glaring errors by Frederic, and for him playing down the middle — a position he hasn’t played in quite some time — he once again was noticeable in a good way.

He won 71.43% of his draws, a team high at 5–2, and tied for the team lead in hits with four. One of those hits earned recognition on a Sportsnet slo-mo replay before the commercial break, when he delivered a heavy hit on the 6-foot-6 Michael McCarron, who had fought Darnell Nurse earlier in the night, crushing him behind the Oilers’ net in the second period.

Now, I know there’s a crowd that will come at me and say, ‘But he hasn’t produced any points!’ — which is completely fair. However, I think I’ve come to accept where we’re at with Frederic. He’s had a very rough season so far — nightmarish for a guy who signed a long-term deal — and for him, it’s about building his game for the second half of the season, one step at a time, in hopes of getting a confident Frederic for the playoffs.

So, we have to take the positives. There have been games throughout the season where he’s been very unnoticeable on the ice, but over the last few games, he’s stood out — whether it’s a fight, creating scoring chances, holding onto pucks longer, or delivering a big, crushing hit. The signs are pointing upward.

Moving forward, I think Frederic’s spot on the fourth line is exactly where he needs to be to continue building his game. Additionally, I also feel Knoblauch needs to give the Frederic-Lazar-Janmark line a more consistent look.

They’ve looked like a legitimate fourth line that can sustain pressure, and I’ve previously mentioned that I feel Frederic and Lazar have some chemistry as well. They read off each other effectively on the forecheck, and an example of that came last month against the Jets, when their pressure caused a turnover that led to a goal by David Tomášek, as seen below:

Now, adding Janmark to the mix with Frederic and Lazar — and despite Lazar not being in the lineup for the last game against the Predators — the trio posted very good metrics over the previous two games playing together.

Against the Kings, that fourth line posted a 66.67 SF%, 96.80 xGF%, and 100 SCF% (9–5). Against the Blackhawks, Lazar had some point-blank chances to score, with the trio posting a 75 SF%, 65.32 xGF%, and 75 SCF%.

That said, both the eye test and the metrics show this line works, and giving the Frederic-Lazar-Janmark line a longer look could help them build even more chemistry and potentially be a solid line the team can lean on in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Frederic’s goal for the second half of the season should be simple: build confidence on that fourth line and do the little things right — hit, cycle, battle hard, and make an impact in the minutes he’s given. And if he keeps trending in the right direction, we could slowly start to see his ‘expected goals’ turn into real ones on the scoresheet.