As we approach the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline, there’s been significant focus on goaltending and defence as areas of improvement for the Edmonton Oilers, which is quite understandable. However, though there’s no doubt that the Oilers possess a talented forward group, they too have significant area for improvement, particularly in one specific area: finishing.
Let’s go back to the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals. Recall that the Oilers dropped Games 1, 2 and 7, ultimately losing the Cup to the Florida Panthers. In those three games, the Oilers were not terrible defensively, allowing seven non-empty-net goals, but on the other side of the ice, they only scored twice. The Oilers accumulated a total of 28 high-danger scoring chances, and Natural Stat Trick’s model had them at roughly 8 expected goals, and yet they only wound up scoring 2 actual goals on Sergei Bobrovsky.
Offensively, the Oilers’ greatest strength is their ability to create quality scoring chances. This season, the team has averaged 14.8 mid and high-percentage scoring chances per game according to CSA Hockey, the highest rate in the league.
However, they rank 23rd in the NHL in shooting percentage. This goes down to 27th if you look at 5-on-5 alone.
We can all recall many games throughout the past few years where the Oilers would overwhelmingly out-shoot and out-chance the opponent, with MoneyPuck’s infamous “Deserve To Win O’Meter” staggeringly in Edmonton’s favour, just for the team to frustratingly wind up losing, often by a single goal. Of course, a big factor in that is simply goaltending, but failing to capitalize on their numerous scoring chances also plays a significant role here.
Simply put, this team lacks consistent finishing talent outside of their two superstars. While the recent promotion of Jeff Skinner to Leon Draisaitl’s wing should improve that, Connor McDavid could still use another top-six winger who can efficiently put pucks in the net. This season, McDavid is operating at a negative goal differential without Draisaitl on-ice at 5v5, being out-scored 23-to-29, and a huge factor is that McDavid’s line has seen a decrease of 35% in goals scored per hour compared to last season.
This is the first of a four-part series where I will be covering trade targets for the Edmonton Oilers at the 2025 Trade Deadline during the Four Nations break. To begin this series, I will analyze top-six forward targets, players that could help truly solidify the Oilers’ forward group as the best in the NHL.
*All stats via EvolvingHockey, Natural Stat Trick, and AllThreeZones unless stated otherwise, and all cap info via PuckPedia
Brock Nelson
Brock Nelson, a 33-year-old forward on the New York Islanders, currently ranks first on both Chris Johnston’s Trade Board and Frank Seravalli’s Trade Board on The Athletic and Daily Faceoff respectively. He carries a $6M cap-hit that expires this summer.
It’s not difficult to see why Nelson is such an appealing target. With fantastic offensive results on an otherwise mediocre Islanders team combined with the ability to play both centre and left-wing, Nelson is an incredibly versatile player who could seamlessly fit on a variety of teams. Nelson’s most valuable asset is his scoring ability, as he has scored over 30 goals in each of the three seasons leading up to this one, and although those rates have slightly declined this year, a 25-goal pace given the quality of his team is nothing to scoff at. Overall, Nelson’s 5-on-5 points per hour rate would rank 24th in the entire NHL in the past three seasons.
Now, Nelson’s defensive results are a mixed bag. On the one hand, Nelson is a strong in-zone defender, very involved in his own zone at retrieving loose pucks and breaking up cycles, and for this reason, he’s an effective penalty-killer. However, his overall 5-on-5 defensive results are rather awful, largely because he tends to play a high-paced, high-event game that leads to a large number of rush scoring chances both ways. Perhaps he only plays this style of game to compensate for NYI’s lack of offence, and so I would expect him to improve in that facet in Edmonton, but the fact that these results have persisted for his entire career is something to at least keep note of.
Alongside his subpar even-strength defensive results, there are other risks with trading for Nelson, such as the fact that the Oilers would likely need to retain significant money to fit his $6M cap hit into the roster. At age 33, he’s quite old, and there’s a strong chance he would simply be a rental, so the Oilers must be cautious about overpaying.
Still, there’s huge potential for Nelson on Edmonton’s roster, particularly next to McDavid and Hyman on the top line. Could any team in the NHL ice a better top-nine than Nelson – McDavid – Hyman, Skinner – Draisaitl – Podkolzin, and Henrique – RNH – Arvidsson? I don’t think so.
This is a player who could be a genuine difference-maker for Edmonton in the 2025 playoffs, and management should highly consider him.
Alex Tuch
Alex Tuch is a 28-year-old RW who has played for the Buffalo Sabres in the past four seasons. He has a $4.8M cap hit that expires in the summer of 2026. Per Elliotte Friedman, the Tampa Bay Lightning could be pursuing Tuch, but they wouldn’t be the only team to do so.
To Oilers fans, Tuch’s most enticing skill should be his finishing ability. His GAx/60 (goals scored above expected per 60 minutes of play) would rank second on the Oilers this season and in the past three seasons overall, only behind Leon Draisaitl and even ahead of McDavid.
But, that’s far from his only valuable trait. Tuch is also a superb passer, averaging 4.5 scoring chance assists per 60, good for top-40 in the NHL. He’s not the most spectacular player off the cycle, ranking in the 51st percentile in cycle shot contributions per 60, but that shouldn’t be a huge issue for the Oilers, who I would say are anyway the best cycle team in the NHL. Luckily, Tuch more than makes up for his cycle play by being one of the most dynamic rush players in the league; he ranks 21st in the NHL in zone entries leading to scoring chances per 60, largely as a result of superb speed and skill.
Overall, Tuch is one of the most efficient producers in the NHL at even-strength. Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, Tuch has produced 2.54 points per hour at 5-on-5, ranking 12th in the NHL ahead of various notable stars such as Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Aleksander Barkov, Kirill Kaprizov and many more. He has very similar offensive rates to Nelson, and the advantage that Tuch possesses is that he’s superior defensively (though neither of them are defensive stalwarts), younger, cheaper, and has an extra year on his contract.
Now, Tuch is one of Buffalo’s most valuable players, and it’s far from a guarantee that he will be available in the first place. But if there’s any chance he is, the Oilers should be all over him. It’s difficult to find a more perfect fit for Edmonton’s top-six out there than him.
Jared McCann
Jared McCann is a 28-year-old forward on the Seattle Kraken with a $5M cap hit for the next three seasons. Per Sportsnet’s Jacob Stoller, McCann could be made available prior to the deadline.
Interestingly, McCann isn’t spectacular at generating scoring chances, as EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model places his on-ice xGF impact as roughly league average. While I’m not entirely sure why that’s the case, this shouldn’t be an issue on the Oilers, the best team in the league at chance creation, and what makes McCann appealing for Edmonton is that this relative weakness in his game is not an area of need for the the team, while his strengths are exactly what the team needs.
In the past three seasons, McCann ranks 14th in the NHL in goals scored above expected per hour, higher than any other player on this list. He is by far one of the most efficient finishers in the league, and has been for nearly his entire career. Additionally, his 2.4 5v5 points per hour rate is very similar to Nelson and Tuch, and what separates McCann is that he’s the best amongst them defensively by a significant margin. Draisaitl is the lone Oilers player that ranks ahead of McCann in successful defensive-zone retrievals per hour this season, and the gap between them in that regard is quite small. McCann also has the ability to play both center and wing, making him incredibly versatile.
Now, the acquisition price could be high, especially considering the term of his contract. But McCann’s skillset seems to be a match made in heaven for the Oilers, and unlike a guy like Nelson, McCann could potentially be a long-term impact player for the team. McCann is my personal favorite player on this list, and I believe Edmonton would be very wise to pursue him.
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Oliver Bjorkstrand is a 29-year-old right-winger, carrying a cap hit of $5.4M for this season and the next one. Bjorkstrand ranked 9th on Frank Seravalli’s Trade Board heading into the Four Nations break, and is the second Seattle player on this list.
Bjorkstrand may not be as offensively dynamic as Nelson or Tuch, but what makes him valuable is his all-around 200-foot game. His 1.91 points per hour rate at 5v5 is a typical rate for the average top-six forward, and he would be Edmonton’s fourth-best finisher at 5-on-5 behind Draisaitl, McDavid and Jeff Skinner, scoring at 20+ goal pace in each of the past seven seasons including this one. Additionally, he would rank first among Edmonton’s wingers in forecheck pressures per hour and defensive zone retrieval success rate, alongside consistently strong defensive results.
Bjorkstrand may not be elite in any specific facet, but he provides value in a variety of different areas, whether it’s scoring goals, forechecking, breaking up plays in the defensive zone, and more. He currently leads the Kraken with a 56 percent goal differential at 5-on-5.
The $5.4M cap hit will require some cap juggling to fit him in, but the extra year on his contract and his age give him an advantage over someone like Nelson. This is a very effective and responsible two-winger all-around that could be incredibly useful to the Oilers.
Kyle Palmieri
Kyle Palmieri is a 34-year-old forward on the New York Islanders, carrying a $5M cap hit that expires this summer. He ranks 14th on Chris Johnston’s Trade Board, and the Oilers were recently listed as a potential suitor for him.
Even at age 34, Palmieri remains a strong offensive forward. He scored 30 goals on a subpar New York Islanders team last season and loves to shoot the puck, particularly off the rush or in high-danger areas. This is an aggressive player who is not afraid to crash the net or go into the dirty areas to recover loose pucks, as Palmieri’s dump-in recoveries per hour would rank higher than every other player on this list. Don’t expect much out of him in terms of defence or passing, but there’s potential for him to be a very effective winger for McDavid.
If the Oilers want an offensively-minded rental option, someone with a lower acquisition cost than someone like Nelson but can still shoot the puck, Palmieri could be an excellent choice.
Rickard Rakell
Rickard Rakell is a 31-year-old right-winger on the Pittsburgh Penguins, carrying a cap hit of $5M for the next four seasons. Rakell ranks second on Chris Johnston’s Trade Board.
Out of all the options mentioned on this list, no one has more points this season than Rakell. His strong production totals and underlying defensive numbers make him a intriguing target. A unique advantage that he possesses is that he already possesses experience next to star players, with Sidney Crosby being his most common linemate this season.
Unfortunately, Rakell is not the most efficient finisher, as his GAx/60 ranks in the 41st percentile, raising questions regarding his stylistic fit in Edmonton. Statistically, there’s a lot of similarities to Viktor Arvidsson here, the type of player the Oilers already have, which is further supported by the fact that Rakell is somewhat injury-prone.
Still, if the Oilers miss out on the more elite top-end targets, Rakell remains a potentially long-term option at least worth considering.
Brayden Schenn
Brayden Schenn is a 33-year-old forward, and the current captain of the St. Louis Blues, possessing a $6.5M cap hit for three more seasons after this one. Schenn ranked 11th on Chris Johnston’s Trade Board, and was additionally directly linked to the Oilers on the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast.
On the surface, Schenn seems to be on the same level as someone like Nelson or McCann. He’s on pace for nearly 50 points this season on a middling Blues team, he can play both centre and wing, his microstat profile seems solid, and he provides invaluable veteran experience. What’s not to love here?
However, there are numerous red flags in Schenn’s game. Firstly, a big chunk of his production comes from playing on STL’s top PP unit, and barring injuries, he would not receive that same opportunity in Edmonton. At 5v5, he has merely produced 1.55 points per hour this season, which ranks lower than the likes of Connor Brown and Kasperi Kapanen. Furthermore, Schenn gives up quite a lot defensively, holding a ghastly 43 percent expected goal differential overall in the past three seasons. While he was once an outstanding puck-mover, he has struggled to move the puck out of his zone without turning it over this season, ranking dead-last on the Blues in DZ turnovers per 60. Not to mention, Schenn is 33, and there’s multiple signs he will regress even further.
Simply put, Schenn is not the player he once was, and it’s not worth the cap juggling to fit his $6M cap-hit on this roster. There are far better options out there.
Brad Marchand
Brad Marchand is a 36-year-old winger on the Boston Bruins. He’s an expiring UFA this summer, currently carrying a $6.1M cap-hit this season.
At a glance, it certainly seems highly unlikely that Marchand would be traded at all. He’s currently the captain of the Boston Bruins, a team he’s won a Stanley Cup with and played on for well over a decade. However, Frank Seravalli did recently suggest that there’s a possibility the Oilers could be interested in him, and considering Marchand’s UFA status this summer and the fact that the Bruins are currently out of a playoff spot, there may be a slight chance it could happen.
It goes without saying that Marchand would be a huge add and incredibly valuable for the playoffs. Even at age 36, he remains an incredibly talented winger that can produce at high rates, effectively kill penalties, and of course, agitate opponents. But again, the big question is if Boston would ever consider trading their heart-and-soul captain.
Final Thoughts
I believe it is likely that the Edmonton Oilers will add at least one forward at the trade deadline. My big question is what type of forward it will be. Will they trade for a bonafide top-six winger to address their finishing issues? Or will they only acquire a depth forward, instead deciding to focus on defence and goaltending?
Many factors will be at play here, such as the team’s limited cap space and limited trade assets. For this reason, there’s a very realistic possibility that the team simply trades for a depth forward and a depth defenceman at this year’s deadline instead of pursuing a big name (though they have been reported to have interest in players like Palmieri and Schenn).
Something else to consider is what position each trade target could play. For instance, the benefit of trading for a top-six winger that can also play centre is that the player could start on McDavid’s wing, or they could even play at 2C allowing the Oilers to load up McDavid and Draisaitl on the top line. I would guess that gives players like Nelson and McCann a big advantage in the eyes of Edmonton’s management.
Evander Kane’s health will also be a factor here. Perhaps the team believes he can still play on McDavid or Draisaitl’s wings, and they ultimately decide not to trade for a high-end top-six winger. However, I’m highly doubtful how effective Kane can be, as his underlying results in Edmonton have been awful ever since his unsustainable SH% heater in 2021-22. After missing significant time and coming off a major surgery, it’s not likely that he will be a true top-six winger for a cup contender.
All-in-all, this will be interesting to closely monitor as we near March 7th.
Tomorrow, I will be releasing an article all about middle-six forward and depth forward trade targets for the team, covering players such as Ryan Donato, Michael McCarron, Jake Evans, and more.
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