Ales Hemsky: Ten Game Segments
14 years ago
Every so often I’ll go to the Oilers’ official site and break down a player’s season into ten-game segments (what can I say, I have an exciting life). Generally, there’s a lot of variation from segment to segment – something which makes me skeptical about judging a player’s playoff performance, since even the best players will have lousy ten-game segments.
In any case, I found something interesting when I broke down Ales Hemsky’s season into ten-game chunks (because he played 72 games, the last chunk is 12 games long). Here are the numbers, but rather than arrange them chronologically, I’ve arranged them based on his shooting rates (average shots per game during each span):
- Nov. 26 – Dec. 17: 10GP – 5G- 5A – 10PTS, +3, 37 shots (3.7 shots/gm)
- Nov. 2 – Nov. 20: 10GP – 5G – 8A – 13PTS, +3, 29 shots (2.9 shots/gm)
- Dec. 19 – Feb. 3: 10GP – 6G – 6A – 12PTS, +3, 29 shots (2.9 shots/gm)
- Feb. 5 – Feb. 24: 10GP – 3G – 8A – 11PTS, -3, 25 shots (2.5 shots/gm)
- Oct. 12 – Nov. 1: 10GP – 0G – 8A – 8PTS, -4, 23 shots (2.3 shots/gm)
- Mar. 20 – Apr. 1: 12GP – 2G – 8A – 10PTS, EV, 26 shots (2.2 shots/gm)
- Feb. 26 – Mar. 19: 10GP – 2G – 3A – 5PTS, -1, 16 shots (1.6 shots/gm)
Hemsky varies between 1.6 and 3.7 shots per game during this span, averaging 2.57 shots/game on the season. Let’s add the totals up for segments where Hemsky shot more frequently than average, and segments where he shot less frequently:
- More than 2.57 shots/gm: 30GP – 16G – 19A – 35PTS, +9
- Less than 2.57 shots/gm: 42GP – 7G – 27A – 34PTS, -8
That’s a rather significant difference; certainly this season Hemsky enjoyed success when he shot more. I wondered though whether the shooting was strictly a function of time in each zone – I saw two real possibilities to explain the phenomenon:
1) Ales Hemsky takes more shots when he’s spending more time in the offensive zone; therefore, the increased shot count coincides with periods of success because he’s spending more time at the right end of the rink
Or
2) Ales Hemsky is a better offensive player when he records more shots; the time in the offensive zone will have some correlation to Hemsky’s shot count but won’t explain it entirely.
The best measurement of time in the offensive zone that we have right now is Vic Ferrari’s Corsi program. So I ran those ten game segments at his site for comparison’s sake:
- Nov. 26 – Dec. 17: 3.7 shots per game, +5.3 Corsi per game
- Nov. 2 – Nov. 20: 2.9 shots per game, +0.2 Corsi per game
- Dec. 19 – Feb. 3: 2.9 shots per game, +0.8 Corsi per game
- Feb. 5 – Feb. 24: 2.5 shots per game, -0.3 Corsi per game
- Oct. 12 – Nov. 1: 2.3 shots per game, +1.7 Corsi per game
- Mar. 20 – Apr. 1: 2.2 shots per game, +0.5 Corsi per game
- Feb. 26 – Mar. 19: 1.6 shots per game, -2.0 Corsi per game
At this point, we can see that there’s some overlap; the highest and lowest Corsi events correspond with the highest and lowest shot rates. However, there isn’t a ton of overlap, and it’s probably fair to say that for Ales Hemsky, taking more shots is an indication that he’s at the top of his game.
This bodes well for the future; Hemsky’s shot rates have been on an upward slope since the lockout, and this year marked a personal high in shots taken.
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