Oilers have many holes after first days of free agency

The Edmonton Oilers had a quiet July 1st. They made the @Mike Smith signing official. Signed @Markus Granlund and @Tomas Jurco to one-year contracts. Brought @Alex Chiasson back on a two-year deal, extended @Jujhar Khaira for two more seasons, and announced the @Gaetan Haas signing on July 2nd.

It’s easy to point to the Oilers’ cap difficulties and understand Holland’s lack of activity, but It’s hard not to look at Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs have a similarly difficult cap situation, but Dubas managed to clear multiple problem contracts and improve his roster at position’s that badly needed an upgrade. Toronto, of course, are a much better team and a legitimate threat to win the Stanley Cup. The Oilers, well, aren’t. But they do have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, along with a handful of young defencemen who should contribute to the Oilers for a long time.

Holland spoke to reporters on July 1st and emphasized a long-term process. He wanted to find more players who could contribute “double-digit” goals. The Andrej Sekera buyout signaled something bigger than a few depth signings and a backup goaltender, but Holland stressed it was about creating opportunity to make more transactions and giving young defenceman a chance to make the roster.

A player doesn’t need to be bought out to open up space for younger players. Sekera hasn’t been able to play more than 36 games a season the past two years. It’s uncertain if he’ll remain healthy for a good chunk of the season. Sekera was free to be waived to the minors, with only no-trade protection in the final two years of his contract. It’s not ideal, you don’t want an unhappy veteran around the potential futures of your franchise, but by all accounts Sekera is a great guy who will be missed by players and other members of the organization. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a big-money free agent sent to the minors after two major surgeries in his thirties. $1.125 of Sekera’s contract would be buried and you wouldn’t have a cap penalty in 2021 and 2022. A Sekera buyout in 2020 would have only yielded two years of dead cap space.

Combine the savings from the Sekera buyout ($3-million for the next two seasons) and the Chiasson ($2.25-million for two seasons) and you have close to what Gustav Nyquist got from the Columbus Blue Jackets ($5.5 million for four years). Nyquist scored 60 points last season and is a top-six forward, but turns 30 before next season.

Holland elected to sign a few bottom-of-the-roster guys with the savings and bet that a 37-year-old Smith will rebound to the previous three years around a 0.915 save percentage he had prior to last season with Calgary.

Holland’s right in his assessment of the Oilers’ bottom-six forwards. The Oilers need to build a competent bottom six, but that’s a result of having no depth after McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins. The Oilers’ fourth, fifth, and sixth forwards in 5v5 ice time last year were Zack Kassian, Chiasson, and Milan Lucic. Seven to nine include Kyle Brodizak, Khaira, and Tobias Rider. Kassian and Chiasson both had 12 5v5 goals, but the other four combined for just 11 5v5 goals. Adding meaningful forwards up front will push those players down the lineup to more reasonable roles.

Granlund is currently the Oilers’ highest-scoring natural left wing with 22 points last season. Assuming Draisaitl plays right wing, the Oilers will only have three wingers who scored more than 30 points last season. That isn’t good enough.

Shopping for useful bottom-six players in free agency usually doesn’t go well. Few will fault Holland for staying away from Brandon Tanev’s six-year commitment. Same with Brett Connolly or Joonas Donskoi at four-years at $3-million plus, but the Oilers are still poised to start the season with Kassian and Chiasson in premier roles. One depth guy riding shotgun with elite players like McDavid and Draisaitl isn’t a big deal, but Nugent-Hopkins remains on an island on his own as the roster currently stands.

Maybe there’s more to come. Holland said as much in his press conference on Monday, but the league’s most active period is winding down. Since the playoffs ended, Edmonton’s one of nine teams without a trade involving a player. The Oilers have two questions marks in goal, a defence that wasn’t good enough last season, and very little after their big three up front.

The Sekera buyout opens up $3 million, but adds cap a few years down the line. Holland hasn’t used that space yet, and the Oilers have shown sometimes cap space dedicated for in-season transactions goes unused, but there’s still time to improve a roster that doesn’t look much different from the 79-point team last season. Holland has a disgruntled fourth-overall pick in his arsenal and a bit of breathing room on the salary cap. Will he use either?