The highly anticipated Stanley Cup Final has lived up to the hype and then some. Three of the first four games have been back-and-forth overtime thrillers and, for just the third time in history, have seen both teams combine for seven or more goals.

After authoring their worst performance since Round One in a blowout loss in Game 4, the Edmonton Oilers looked to have punted away another one with their horrid start to Game 4, as they were outshot 17-7 and outscored 3-0, thanks largely to a number of sloppy penalties.

The Oilers made amends with an excellent finish to Game 4, becoming the first team to overcome a 3-0 deficit on the road in the Stanley Cup Final since 1919. They have not yet confirmed if they will stick with Calvin Pickard in goal for Game 5 after an excellent performance in relief in Game 4. Pickard holds a 7-0 record and an .896 save percentage this postseason.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The first period of Game 4 looked very similar to the entirety of Game 3, as the Panthers made far fewer mistakes than the Oilers did and capitalized on several careless penalties from the Oilers. However, for the second time in the series, head coach Paul Maurice’s side failed to hold on to a multi-goal lead, something it has done extremely well throughout his tenure with the team.

The underlying metrics suggest this series has been every bit as even as the 2-2 scoreline suggests, as the Panthers hold an expected goal share of 49.1% across all strengths. Maurice has to be pleased with the amount of offence his side has been able to generate and is likely most concerned with his team’s defensive play in the stretches of play in which the Panthers have led on the scoreboard.

Edmonton has generated 3.51 xGF/60 in the series, which is a far greater than average mark looking at the entirety of the 2025 playoffs as a whole.

Sergei Bobrovsky holds a .913 save percentage in the series, and a 2.86 GAA. He holds a +11.2 GSAx rating this postseason, and his game has remained sharp in the final, but he has faced a more difficult workload in this series than he had on average in the first three rounds.

In Games 5-7 of the first three rounds, the Panthers were able to batten down defensively, allowing only 1.75 goals against on average.

It’s been an inconsistent series from the Panthers’ top stars, who were outplayed overall in Game 4 as the Oilers pushed aggressively to get the game knotted up. Florida’s top line of Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Reinhart was outchanced considerably in Game 4, while its top defensive pairing of Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad also had a tougher time than usual limiting high-danger scoring chances.

The Panthers have no skaters on the injury report entering this matchup, and it’s unclear at the time of writing if Maurice will opt to shake up his units entering this pivotal matchup.

The Oilers deserve plenty of credit for their seemingly impossible comeback in Game 4, pulling off a feat that had not been accomplished since 1919 versus a Panthers side known for tight-knit defensive play. While it’s extremely impressive that the Oilers have the kind of offensive upside and determination to pull off that type of win, they can’t expect to take periods off and find a way to close this series out.

For the second game in a row, the Oilers took numerous sloppy and unneeded penalties early on. Fans can debate the reffing all they want, but every call in the first period was pretty black and white, and all accomplished nothing. The Oilers made far too many unforced errors in the first period, which once again came down more to than the Panthers simply featuring an excellent forecheck.

The Oilers got a spark early in the second period from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ power play goal and did a great job of not overextending for offence the rest of the way. It continues to feel as though when the Oilers are on their game they are capable of taking the play to the Panthers, and it’s been careless penalties combined with needless mistakes that have powered the Panthers success in this series.

Troy Stecher played just 4:18 after making some mistakes early on in the game, and as a result, the Oilers may opt to insert John Klingberg back into the lineup for Game 5.

Edmonton’s third offensive trio had a much better showing in Game 4, led by Jeff Skinner who played well in his Stanley Cup Final debut. Skinner was involved and brought plenty of energy throughout his 12:33 of time-on-ice, and has likely earned the opportunity to remain in the lineup for Game 5.

At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether the Oilers will go with Pickard or Stuart Skinner in goal for this matchup. While it was not Skinner’s fault that the time trailed after the first, Pickard may have earned the start with his rock-solid showing in Game 4.

As expected, this has been a hotly contested, back-and-forth series in which neither team has truly outplayed the other, aside from the Oilers’ meltdown in Game 3. Edmonton could be well situated to build on its Game 4 performance as it continues to feel as though it’s greatest issues should be preventable and would be my lean in terms of a side at -120.

Given how scoring the first four games has been it may not sound like an overly appealing play, but there are some strong arguments that suggest this could be a more tight-knit affair. Game 4 opened up after the Oilers came out and took numerous sloppy penalties, and were then forced to push for offence playing in a multi-goal deficit.

The Panthers are more than capable of locking things down defensively more so than we have seen throughout the rest of the series, but if the Oilers can manage the puck better and stay out of the box they should be able to hold the Panthers to a more reasonable total.

At -120 there looks to be value backing the game to go under a high total of 6.5 goals, and I would bet it down to -130.