The Oilers made an interesting addition to their training camp, signing forward Mike Hoffman to a professional tryout agreement. A fifth round pick in the 2009 draft, Hoffman has played 745 regular season games in the NHL, scoring 228 goals and 487 points. And he has 20 points in 33 playoff games. Hoffman will be 35 years old this fall.

Looking at the current roster, Hoffman appears to be a long shot to make the NHL team. The top six group of forwards is pretty much set with the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. And the bottom six group is filled with veteran guys who secured NHL deals this summer, including Mattias Jannmark, Adam Henrique, Connor Brown and Corey Perry. The Oilers powerplay doesn’t really need any specialists, and Hoffman has never been trusted to kill penalties in his entire career.

To figure out what the best-case scenario would be for Hoffman in Edmonton, I wanted to get a better understanding of how he’s been utilized by five different organizations as well as his underlying performance numbers, specifically at even-strength (5v5). The PTO agreement is a great way for the Oilers to see what Hoffman has to offer and if he can add any ounce of value to the roster. The bottom six could always use some more scoring ability, so seeing what Hoffman has left is worthwhile.

Couple high-level questions I have regarding Hoffman:

Knowing Hoffman’s history and reputation as a goal-scorer and what we know about player aging curves, it’s a good to know how other NHL coaching staff’s have handled his ice-time and deployment – especially in the last few seasons.

The graph below shows Hoffman’s average ice time per game at even-strength. What’s become apparent is that he’s been deployed as a third line option at 5v5 (~12 minutes per game) since he turned 30 almost five seasons ago. Montreal did give him some more opportunities on their second line in 2021/22, playing with some skilled, young players. But other than that he’s been predominantly a depth player after he turned 30.

And below is a breakdown of how Hoffman was deployed against different levels of competition, using PuckIQ’s methodology.

Again, we see that his responsibilities have declined as he’s aged, and there’s been a consistent effort of his coaching staff’s to keep him away from elite level competition. Prior to turning 30, Hoffman was more often deployed with top-six linemates and against elite level players. But over the last few seasons, coaches have kept him further away from top-end players. There was a slight uptick of time against elites last season in San Jose, but that could have been to build up his trade value ahead of the trade deadline as the Sharks were, and continue to be in, a rebuilding phase.

Below is a summary of Hoffman’s numbers over his career at even-strength, which is a major focus here since he’s not likely going to get powerplay time in Edmonton. So if he wants a role, he’ll need to bring some value in this critical game-state. Playing for Edmonton will be an adjustment for Hoffman as he’s always been a powerplay option, and it’s where he’s generated a large proportion of his overall points.

The overall rate of point production (i.e., points per hour) at even-strength has gradually been declining for Hoffman. His high point came as a 24-year old in 2014/15 when he scored at a first-line rate for Ottawa with 2.50 points per hour. While he finished fifth on the Senators in overall points, he was second on the team in even-strength points, just a few points behind Mark Stone. But after a decent season with Florida in 2019/20 when he was 30, things have gone pretty poorly for Hoffman. Even though he’s been getting around the same number of minutes and getting to periodically play with talented players, he’s been producing worse than a third-line rate (1.50).

One underlying issue for Hoffman is that his individual rate of shots has been declining for quite some time now. It plateaued between 2016 and 2020, when he was between ages 27 and 30. But then it took another drop after that. Last year was a career low, as he only generated 4.25 shots per hour – well below his career levels and what he’d been posting in the three seasons prior. San Jose was a dreadful team last year and he dealt with injuries, which obviously played a role. But it’s part of an ongoing trend, so it’s likely going to continue unless he’s fully healed up and has high end linemates.

What’s interesting is that while Hoffman’s rate of shots has declined, his personal shooting percentage has remained fairly consistent – definitely a good sign for Edmonton. Over the last three seasons, he’s hovered around 11% and there’s a good chance he’ll be able to post this again. The issue, as indicated above, is that he’s not getting enough chances – an issue that could be mitigated by the coaching staff and their deployment tactics.

As mentioned before, Hoffman has had issues generating shots for himself. One of the big reasons for this is that when he’s on the ice, his teams are often defending and playing in their own zone. Hoffman’s defensive play has been in the spotlight before, so it’s not overly surprising to see the numbers below. But it’s the decline, again, after turning 30, that really stands out.

The table below shows Hoffman’s on-ice shot-differential numbers relative to his teammates. This factors in the quality-level of their roster and tells us if they’re thriving in the minutes their given. I tend to use Corsi For percentage, which is a proxy for puck possession, as well as Fenwick and Expected goals as a proxy for scoring chances.

In the last two seasons, Hoffman’s numbers haven’t been as bad, but it’s likely because he’s been playing on bottom-feeder teams that were lacking talent. My thought is if he’s on a higher end team like Edmonton, his numbers will take a hit. He doesn’t exactly have the history of being a positive impact player.

Depending on how things go in training camp, and if he’s healed up from his injuries from last season, there’s an outside chance Hoffman could make the team. His best attribute is scoring goals, which I think the Oilers bottom six might struggle with this season. And he’s been fairly consistent in terms of converting on his chances. The issue for Hoffman is that he has to be sheltered quite a bit, as his overall defensive play limits his teams ability to outshoot and outchance opponents. At this point, Hoffman appears to be more of a reserve player who can fill in when injuries hit. But we’ll have to see how things shake out in the next few weeks through camp and the pre-season games starting this weekend.

Data: HockeyDB, PuckIQ, Natural Stat Trick, Puckpedia