Expectations: The Forwards

13 years ago

Having already looked at the expectations for Ales Hemsky and the big three rookies, it’s time to look at the projections for the other forwards on this season’s roster.

As with Ales Hemsky, the readers here at Oilers Nation have high expectations for the more established forwards on the roster. The average reader expects career high point totals from Dustin Penner, Sam Gagner, and Gilbert Brule, while Shawn Horcoff is expected to better his three-year average by five points. The expectations for Andrew Cogliano are relatively more modest; he’s the only one of the consensus top-nine expected to be in the range of his three-season average.

Dustin Penner

Reader High: 80 (Fee Logolin, treevojo)
Reader Average: 64
Reader Low: 48 (mesh)
Writer High: 64 (Robin Brownlee)
Writer Average: 61
Writer Low: 54 (Wanye Gretz)
Three Season Average: 49
Three Season High: 63

After two years of disappointing scoring totals in Edmonton, Dustin Penner emerged as the offensive leader of the team after Ales Hemsky went down last season, and it appears that almost everyone has been convinced by that rousing performance, as Oilers Nation’s writers expect a slight drop from last season while readers expect a slight uptick.

Sam Gagner

Reader High: 75 (LuckyLex, treevojo)
Reader Average: 58
Reader Low: 42 (Steve Smith)
Writer High: 60 (Jason Gregor)
Writer Average: 56
Writer Low: 51 (Wanye Gretz)
Three Season Average: 44
Three Season High: 49

Another example of readers and writers being in broad agreement, Sam Gagner is expected by virtually everyone to emerge as more of an offensive leader this season. Gagner has never hit the 50-point mark (he was on pace for 49 last season, but at just (barely) 21 years of age it’s hard to criticize the optimism.

Shawn Horcoff

Reader High: 84 (russ99)
Reader Average: 58
Reader Low: 36 (Hungoverman)
Writer High: 66 (Jason Gregor)
Writer Average: 56
Writer Low: 42 (Lowetide)
Three Season Average: 46
Three Season High: 53

Shawn Horcoff was brutal last season, but most appear to have concluded that 2009-10 was a one-off, and are projecting a return to the 55 point range for Horcoff.

Gilbert Brule

Reader High: 59 (I’m a Scientist!)
Reader Average: 44
Reader Low: 33 (Kyle)
Writer High: 48 (Robin Brownlee)
Writer Average: 42
Writer Low: 32 (Jonathan Willis)
Three Season Average: 22
Three Season High: 37

Given his age, draft pedigree, and the fact that he put up 37 points in 65 games last season while putting in minimal power play time, expectations for Gilbert Brule are high. There is near unanimity that his 2009-10 performance as an Oiler, and not his work as a Blue Jacket or in the AHL, represents his true level of ability.

Andrew Cogliano

Reader High: 60 (Oilcruzer)
Reader Average: 39
Reader Low: 26 (Hungoverman)
Writer High: 43 (Jason Gregor)
Writer Average: 37
Writer Low: 30 (Lowetide)
Three Season Average: 37
Three Season High: 45

The final forward on our list, Andrew Cogliano, didn’t make every reader’s list. He’s been trade bait for ages, and his point totals have been on a downward slope since entering the league, so perhaps that isn’t surprising. Among those readers who did list Cogliano, though, most expect him to bounce back from an ugly 2009-10.