GDB 37.0: No Mercy (5pm MT, SNW)

Last night at 6:45 Montreal time, the Canadiens skated for the first time in a week. Their facility has been closed since March 22nd due to COVID protocols and close contact tracing. Joel Armia is the only player still on the COVID protocol list, but his teammates had a week off without any practice time. When Edmonton Oilers forward Kyle Turris returned from his one week in protocol, he needed another week of skating and practice time before Dave Tippett considered re-inserting back him in the lineup.

Despite playing last night the Oilers should have more jump and crispness in their game. They need to take advantage of this rare situation.

Pro sports is ruthless. While opposing teams and fanbases might have empathy for your struggles, they ultimately want to kick you when you are down. This is unlike any situation Canadiens players have faced before. Having a week off with no time on the ice in the middle of a season has never happened prior to this season. It didn’t work out well for the American teams who had to endure it, and Edmonton needs to ensure they are relentless tonight.

The Oilers have been really good in back-to-back games this season. After last night’s 3-2 OT victory in Toronto the Oilers are now 6-1 in the first half of games and they are 5-1 in the second game thus far. Last year they were 7-1 in the second half of back-to-back games. Fatigue has not been a factor for the Oilers recently, and a win today would put them on a plane back to Edmonton with their best two-month stretch in years.

A win tonight would improve their record to 20-7-1 between January 30th and March 30th. Two months of solid hockey and it would set them up for a favourable April schedule with only two sets of back-to-back games on April 2nd/3rd and 28th/29th and 17 days with no games.

No NHL game is easy. We’ve seen many basement dwelling teams beat top teams in their division this season. Ottawa has defeated first place Toronto three times. Detroit beat Tampa, Anaheim defeated Vegas and Colorado and even Buffalo defeated first place Washington once.

Montreal isn’t a last place team, but they will be rusty and their conditioning might be an issue later in the game. I asked Dave Tippett about playing a team that only got on the ice once, and that wasn’t very intense, in the past week.

“They are likely going to play a simple game after being off for a week,” said Tippett. “We have to play a disciplined game and not let them dictate the game.”

The Canadiens have been very good at 5×5 outscoring teams 65-45. Their powerplay is eighth at 23.6% and their PK is 22nd at 76.4%. Edmonton’s PP is fourth at 26.4%  and their PK is 21st at 76.7%.

The difference is Montreal takes a lot of penalties and doesn’t get many powerplays. They have been shorthanded 3.42/game, which is third most in the NHL, but they are 26th in PP/game at 2.71.

Edmonton sits with the 12th most PP/game at 3.14, while they don’t take many penalties with the eighth lowest PK/game at 2.86.

After two games against a Toronto team that doesn’t take many penalties, the Oilers should be able to get on the man advantage at least three times tonight. And then it is up to their powerplay to attack a PK that could be a bit out of sync with slower reads than normal.

Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Turris – RNH – Yamamoto
Ennis– Haas – Kassian
Shore – Khaira – Archibald

Nurse – Barrie
Lagesson – Larsson
Russell – Bear

Koskinen

The only lineup change is in goal with Mikko Koskinen. Why mess with a winning lineup? The bottom three lines were solid yesterday and the only change on the backend you’d consider might be Caleb Jones in for William Lagesson, but they like his size and defensive abilities against a good 5×5 team.

Nurse’s 10 goals at 5×5 are second most on the team behind McDavid’s 11. Only seven other forwards in the NHL have more 5×5 goals than Nurse: Mikko Rantanen (15), Alex Ovechkin (13), Auston Matthews (12) and Mitch Marner, Joel Farabee and Toffoli (11). Nurse is tied with eight other players for ninth most 5×5 goals in the NHL. He’s been outstanding offensively. He is shooting more and getting the puck off quickly like he did in OT.

Nurse’s 12 EV goals are the seventh most by an Oilers D-man in a single season, and he’s only played 36 games. Paul Coffey had 30, 25, 23, 19 and 16 between 1982-1986 and Charlie Huddy scored 13 in 1983. Nurse is on pace to score 27 goals in a full regular season. Only Coffey scored more. What is most impressive to me about many of Nurse’s goals is they have been great shots. He is finishing like a top-six forward right now. Many told me when after he scored his sixth goal of the season they he would slow down. His SH% was too high, but at 12.9% it isn’t that high when you consider D-men who score goals. Among Oilers D-men who played at least 36 games in a season, his 12.9SH% is currently 15th best. It is the best of his career, and it could come down, but we might be witnessing Nurse take his game to a new offensive level.

Tatar – Danault – Gallagher
Drouin – Suzuki – Anderson
Byron – Kotkaniemi – Lehkonen
Frolik – Evans – Perry

Edmundson – Weber
Kulak – Petry
Romanov – Mete

Price

Outside of being off the ice for a week, the Canadiens will be without Tyler Toffoli tonight. He leads them in goals with 18, but is out with a lower body injury. Joel Armia is on the COVID protocol list and Ben Chiarot is out with a broken hand. Chiarot’s injury led to the Canadiens changing their top-four D pairs. Chiarot has missed six games, and in the past four games Jeff Petry has been paired with Stu Kulak, while Joel Edmundson is now with Shea Weber.

I’m curious to see which pair faces the McDavid/Draisaitl duo the most tonight.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Not skating for a week is a big deal and the Oilers take advantage and skate away with a 5-2 victory. Montreal falls to 1-3-1 when playing after 3+ days rest.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers continue to play well in the second half of BTB games. Oilers PP scores twice.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Zack Kassian scores his first career goal against the Montreal Canadiens. Leaving him with only three teams (DET, NYR, LV) he hasn’t scored against.

Get your hands on the latest Oilersnation Creation NOW! **Hats available in SnapBack & Flex Fit.