GDB 37.0: End On A Good Note (6:30pm MT, SNW)

Photo credit:Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

4 years ago

Forty-eight hours ago, getting one win on this brief two-game road trip looked like a daunting task for the @Edmonton Oilers. However, a 2-1 victory in Dallas, which ended their four-game losing streak, gave the Oilers a much-needed boost and they skate into St. Louis looking to sweep this short road trip.

Things can change quickly in the NHL, either positively or negatively, and at worse the Oilers will head home with a .500 record on this trip.

After allowing 19 goals during their four-game skid, the Oilers rediscovered their defensive awareness, shutting out the Stars at 5×5. The Oilers goals against had sky rocketed due to many self-inflicted errors. Bad line changes, missed passes, missed assignments and some simple mental gaffs had them sliding down the standings. But a solid performance in Dallas gave them some much needed confidence as they prepare to take on the defending Stanley Cup Champions.

Having watched each game twice, I noticed that for long stretches in games against Buffalo, Toronto, Carolina and Minnesota, the Oilers played quite well. They had the puck often, but huge blunders led to goals.

Sport Logiq tracks puck possession in the offensive zone, shots from the slot, scoring chances off the rush, controlled zone entries and exits and completed stretch passes.

Here are the numbers for the past five games: The right columns are for shots for/against, then shots for/against at 5×5 and shots attempts for and against at 5×5 (Corsi).

O-zone possession time:
Edmonton    Opponent    SF-SA    SF-SA (5×5)    CF-CA (5×5)
7:14 6:56 (DAL) 28-35    18-25 29-50
7:40 5:17 (TOR) 37-32    34-31 57-53
8:22 4:30 (MINN)    33-26    29-25 51-50
7:19 6:38 (CAR) 36-32    27-25 42-47
6:50 8:21 (Buff) 28-22    18-19 32-45

Shots from slot:
Edmonton Opponent
5 11 (DAL)
12 14 (TOR)
10 12 (MINN)
14 12 (CAR)
14 8 (Buff)

Scoring Chances Off-The-Rush:
Edmonton Opponent
2 2 (DAL)
8    11 (TOR)
3    7 (MINN)
0    1 (CAR)
9    5 (Buff)

Controlled Entries:
Edmonton Opponent
31    42 (DAL)
46    36 (TOR)
47    32 (MINN)
40    30 (CAR)
42    45 (Buff)

Controlled Exits:
Edmonton    Opponent
68    65 (DAL)
65    71 (TOR)
84    62 (MINN)
68    56 (CAR)
69    73 (Buff)

Completed Stretch Passes:
Edmonton    Opponent
11    12 (DAL)
11 7 (TOR)
27    10 (MINN)
11    13 (CAR)
11 9 (Buff)

Edmonton trailed 2-0 in all four of their losses, and they were down 2-0 in the first period except against Toronto. They scored first against Dallas and led 2-0 after the first period. Against Buffalo, Minnesota and Carolina they managed to tie the game in the third period, but lost in OT to Buffalo, and in the third period to Carolina and Minnesota.

I think the Sports Logiq stats illustrate how the Oilers limited Toronto, Carolina and Minnesota’s possession time in the offensive zone, but specifically against the Leafs and Wild they got exploited by allowing scoring chances off the rush. Dallas only had two chances all game off the rush, and fewer chances from the slot than Carolina, Toronto and Minnesota.

The one common theme in many of the Oilers losses is they allow too many scoring chances off the rush. The Oilers didn’t allow Dallas to transition the puck quickly very often, and they will need to do the same tonight against the Blues.

LINEUP…

Oilers

Nygard-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-Draisaitl-Gagner
Khaira-RNH-Chiasson
Haas-Sheahan-Archibald

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Bear
Russell-Jones

Koskinen

Blues

Schwartz-Scheen-Kyrou
Sanford-O’Reilly-Perron
Steen-Thomas-Bozak
Maceachern-De La Rose-Sundqvist

Pietrangelo-Faulk
Bouwmeester-Parayko
Dunn-Bortuzzo

Allen

Blues head coach Craig Berube doesn’t hesitate to shuffle his lines in game. Against Colorado he moved Sundqvist up with Perron and O’Reilly and went head-to-head against the Nathan MacKinnon-Mikko Rantanen combination. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl centering their own lines, I suspect Sanford will stick with that line to start.

Interesting seeing Allen start. He was very good against the Oilers earlier this year in Edmonton, but the past three years he has struggled on home ice. Here are his home and road splits.

Home: 22-22-2 with a .891Sv%, a 3.04 GAA in 2760 minutes.
Road: 29-22-11 with a .919Sv%, a 2.52 GAA in 3715 minutes.

This season is 5-1-2 on the road with a .932Sv% and a 2.21 GAA. At home he is 0-1-0 with a .875Sv% and 2.94 GAA

In his last 47 home starts, he has had a Sv% below .900 in 25 of them. Getting an early goal on him could present another off night at home for Allen. Tonight is only his eighth start in the last 12 months. He is 2-5 in the previous seven.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Prior to uncovering the Allen oddity I thought Oilers lose for sure. Now I’m second guessing that. I rarely do this, but I am flipping a coin. Heads Blues, tails Oilers… it landed tails. So Oilers in an upset 3-2.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid picks up his 60th point of the season in game 37. In 2016 he had 42 points in 37 games. In 2017 he had 45 points in 37 games and last season he scored 54 points in the first 37 games.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Alex Steen scores his first goal of the season for the Blues. Oilersnation responds with, “Of course he does.”

MONTH OF GIVING…

A massive thank you to Dan for his great bid on the Dave Tippett coaching video room and Oilers jersey package.

Day 13: Package #1: A Sanuvox HEPA Sterilization & UV Air Purification System supplied and installed by Mondo Mechanical.

Designed for homeowners who want the combined performance of HEPA filtration, UV air purification and odor removal in one self-contained unit. The HEPA filter is 99.97% effective, trapping particles to 0.3 microns in size. Purification is done through a germicidal process and photo-oxidation. The air is pulled into the aluminum UV reaction chamber where the air passes parallel to the UV lamp, bombarding it with UVC and UVV light, and destroying airborne biological and chemical contaminants in the air. The air continues through the pre-filter and finally the HEPA filter.
Installation included.

You can bid by listening to TSN 1260 between 2-6 p.m. today and calling 780.444.1260 or text 101260.

Package #2: A one-year membership at Blackhawk Golf Course courtesy of Al Prokop.

As a private club member you are usually required to buy a share, which is currently $25,000, however the Black Hawk Golf Club has generously bypassed this for our auction, and the winner will be just like any other member for a year.
The successful bidder will receive full unrestricted golf playing privileges for the 2020 season including club storage, locker room access, use of practice range and short game area as well as clubhouse account for all purchases. The bidder will also be entitled to bring guests as per the Club’s standard guest policy.

You can bid by listening to TSN 1260 between 2-6 p.m. today and calling 780.444.1260 or text 101260. All the money raised will help out The Christmas Bureau and Santas Anonymous.

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