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GDB 3.0: PEDAL TO THE METAL

Lowetide
7 years ago
McDavid-mania is alive and well in the city of Edmonton and it makes itself obvious in many ways. How many? Let’s count them.

MCDAVID-MANIA

  1. This is home game No. 2, people have their season’s tickets and giving away tickets for games is back to being highly unusual. There was a time, not so long ago, when Oilers tickets would at times be available (at cost, or even free) a full day before a game. No longer. It is a real thing.
  2. People move work and leisure activities around so McDavid viewing can go on without interruption.
  3. The general mood of the city is miles better—even with an early snow.
  4. Freezing rain this morning had fans mulling over the roads and the trip—and the bet here is the decision is to leave early, as opposed to not attending. (No more freezing rain in the forecast).
  5. Calls and texts to radio shows are talking about playoffs, adding players and punishing divisional foes with the fire of a thousand suns.
I could go on. Seriously.

PACIFIC DIVISION STANDINGS

No Team Record Points Goal Differential
1 Edmonton Oilers 2gp, 2-0-0 4+5
2 San Jose Sharks 2gp, 2-0-0 4+2
3 Arizona Coyotes 1gp, 1-0-0 2
+1
4 Vancouver Canucks 1gp, 1-0-0 2+1
5 Calgary Flames 3gp, 0-2-1 1
-6
6 Anaheim Ducks 2gp, 0-2-0 0-3
7 Los Angeles Kings 2gp, 0-2-0 0-3
Painfully early, but we should also remember that a season ago the Oilers were 0-2-2, had a goal differential of minus four and would be 4-8-0 and out of contention by Halloween. In the world of the Bettman point, losing touch with the pack has dire consequences. All victories are major events in today’s NHL.

MCDAVID THE LEADER

Connor McDavid (2gp, 3-3-6) leads the NHL in points, and is second among forwards in time on ice (his 22:48 trails Anaheim center Ryan Getzlaf by 43 seconds). It is revealing to look at his shift numbers through two games compared to other Oilers centers:
  1. Connor McDavid 30.5
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 24.0
  3. Leon Draisaitl 22.5
  4. Mark Letestu 22.5
According to NHL.com, Edmonton is averaging 100 shifts by centermen (we know this isn’t really the number, as Leon has played RW some, too) and McDavid is being double shifted—expect this to continue—with the game in the balance. Let’s compare the numbers above to how McDavid was deployed one year ago:
  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 24.2
  2. Leon Draisaitl 23.0
  3. Connor McDavid 22.9
  4. Mark Letestu 22.7
McDavid is getting more shifts compared to last season, by about eight per game. That is a lot. However, the other centermen are at the same levels. Why is this happening? Shift lengths. Here are shift lengths for this year, followed by last season in brackets.
  1. Connor McDavid 44 seconds (49 seconds)
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 42 seconds (47 seconds)
  3. Leon Draisaitl 42 seconds (47 seconds)
  4. Mark Letestu 35 seconds (41 seconds)
So far this year, Edmonton’s centers are averaging about 5 seconds less per shift—a seemingly small item, but it gives the Oilers about eight more McDavid shifts per game. Hmm. Looks like the Oilers have McDavid-mania, too! McDavid is playing more of course (22:48 this season, 18:53 a year ago) but his shift lengths are actually less this season, so far. I wonder if this is a coincidence, or something the coaching staff decided to deploy as strategy. Time will tell.

LINEUPS

Lineups are subject to change as Todd McLellan says there could be a lineup change after the pre-game warmup. 
Oilers lineups courtesy of DailyFaceoff.com
Sabres lineups courtesy of DailyFaceoff.com

QUICK HITS

  • Cam Talbot gets his third start in a row, the Oilers schedule is friendly for this kind of usage deep into the month.
  • Adam Larsson will play again, some question about that, as he has skipped practice a couple of times since the season began. The Swede plays a far more rugged game than the reports suggested at the time of the trade.
  • Did you see the McDavid goal in Calgary in the first period? That goal came on a nothing turnover with all Flames in good spots. No. 11 on the Flames checked down to engage Jordan Eberle in the split second McDavid realized the possibilities. I don’t know if there is a way to defend that play. Seriously. It is all about speed.
  • Cam Talbot has received some heat for his play in the first two games, but his save off Alex Chiasson a minutes after the McDavid goal was huge. Talbot’s even-strength save percentage is .930 so far this year.
  • The Sabres are missing some of their best forwards, including Jack Eichel and Evander Kane. There is plenty of talent on this roster, however, and the Oilers are far from good enough to enter a game with overconfidence.
  • This could be an old fashioned shootout, the kind of 80s game coaches hated and fans loved so much they have never forgotten. 

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING

From Die by the Blade
McDavid has already scored three goals in his two games, and they have been quite spectacular goals at that. Not only would it sting for him to score with Eichel on the sidelines, but it’s also pretty obvious now that he is much better than Eichel. Don’t rub it in our faces, please.

TONIGHT

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Buffalo scores first—and second—giving Oilers fans a chance to grumble, rolls eyes and notice the ceiling of the new barn.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION:  Once again, the power play springs to life and gives Edmonton a chance to win. A power-play marker by Jordan Eberle ties it 2-2 late in the second frame. 
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid scores, so does Larsson, and the fans go home happy again. Do not plan a parade route! 

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