LOST DRIVE-IN
By Lowetide
8 years ago
The Bakersfield Condors announced their TC roster today, lots of ECHL players and a few PTO’s as things get rolling for AHL clubs. Looking back to last season, the Oilers had some success in the development department and a few men will break camp with the team this season. What can we say about this year’s AHL team and their future?
The Bakersfield Condors released their TC roster, with more to come. Source
Among the players we’ve heard about, this is how things look before Draisaitl, Nurse, Davidson, Slepyshev and others are sent down (or not).
I’ll be watching men like Bogdan Yakimov and Josh Winquist, players who have been there before. It’s important for their careers to progress this season. It’ll also be fun to see rookie pro’s like Greg Chase and Joey Laleggia. Eric Rodgers from Tend The Farm did fantastic work a year ago in an effort to give us an idea about who was performing well in OKC.
This is sorted by forward and defense (thanks, tips!) and gives us an idea about how well each player was doing offensively and overall by using estimated time on ice. Men listed from last season’s team who are worth watching this year: Andrew Miller, Josh Winquist, Bogdan Yakimov, Jordan Oesterle and Brandon Davidson. Anton Lander and Oscar Klefbom graduate to the NHL for good this season (we hope).
WHAT SHOULD WE BE LOOKING FOR?
Over many AHL seasons I’ve looked at, there are certain things that appear to be universally true. Source.
- Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (0r re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. Among current Condors, Ryan Hamilton is the only player who is 30 and has a chance to make the NHL this season. These players usually bolt to Europe by 30, credit to Hamilton for pursuing his dream.
- Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 through 2015). A player like Lander a year ago (or like Musil this season) is running out of time in terms of a natural progression from AHL to NHL. Musil will be waiver eligible next fall, so this year is important for him—needs to be an early callup an show well. Men like Tyler Pitlick are into the meandering portion of their careers.
- No minor league regular is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. Martin Marincin and Anton Lander should have years of great productivity, but spending that much time in the minors usually means a shortened NHL career—the bell curve starting at a later age, lower career trajectory. (Much like point No. 3).
- If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. Exceptions are college men. Big seasons for Musil, Gernat and Kessy. College guys like Simpson and Oesterle have a little more time.
- A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. Hockey people sometimes call them ‘JAG’ or just a guy (or so I’ve been told). Brandon Davidson probably fits the description.
- Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. As an Oilers fan it took me forever to learn this point. I’d be hoping like hell to see Marc Pouliot turn out as a scorer but by year three in the minors he needed to buy in to the idea that his future would be as a complementary two-way player (he did not do it). This is Lander’s outer marker, in my opinion. That’s a productive investment for an NHL team. The Oilers don’t develop these men often, and have a hard time seeing them good until they’re beating them while representing another team. Hopefully this changes under the new regime.
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