NHL Betting Preview (April 10th): Golden Knights vs. Oilers Odds

Photo credit:Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

3 months ago

Wednesday’s meeting between the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers will lack a lot of its usual star power, but that also makes it an interesting game to handicap. This article will break down the odds and trends that make this matchup interesting, from a betting perspective.

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Odds

Golden Knights Moneyline Odds: -105
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -115
Puck Line Odds: Golden Knights +1.5 (-260), Oilers -1.5 (+195)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +105, under -125)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

The Golden Knights put an end to Edmonton’s 16-game win streak when these teams last met back on February 6th in Vegas. Connor McDavid opened the scoring in the first five minutes of the game with a shorthanded goal, but they were not able to take the lead into the first intermission. Vegas scored the next goal a minute and twenty four seconds into the third period and then scored another, into the empty net, to win the game 3-1.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Wednesday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Golden Knights (42-35 SU, 39-38 ATS, 38-39 O/U)

Vegas is travelling without regulars like defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, forward Nicolas Roy, and goaltender Adin Hill, who were left behind due to injury and illness, and now Chandler Stephenson has returned home due to personal reasons. However, the Golden Knights’ lineup is still fairly stacked with the likes of Jack Eichel, William Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, and more.

Per Evolving Hockey, the Golden Knights rank eighth in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and shot attempt percentage since March 1st. That’s just a few spots behind the Oilers. Of course, Edmonton has a much better 5-on-5 goal share, but Edmonton is 5-6-4 without him since the start of the 2016-17 season. During that time, the Oilers scored 3.27 goals per game with McDavid in the lineup, and 2.33 goals per game without him.

The Golden Knights rank among the top 10 teams in goals per 60 minutes (all situations) over the past month, and goaltender Logan Thompson has had a solid season. He has saved the team approximately five goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey, but he is coming off back-to-back losses in which he allowed six and four goals respectively.

Handicapping the Oilers (47-29 SU, 36-40 ATS, 33-40 O/U)

Obviously, the big story is that Connor McDavid is out after being injured with about 5:00 to play in Saturday’s game against the Calgary Flames. McDavid hasn’t been ruled out by the team, Daily Faceoff’s own, Jason Gregor, is saying ‘don’t expect McDavid to play on Wednesday’.

From a betting perspective, this news has had a notable impact on Wednesday’s game odds, but most sportsbooks did not have odds available when we learned about McDavid missing practice for the second consecutive day. One sportsbook initially listed the Oilers as a -156 favourite, with Vegas at +128. However, by 12:30 p.m. local time on Tuesday, Edmonton’s odds had shortened to -125, while Vegas moved to +105.

This odds movement signifies a five percent drop in Edmonton’s implied win probability, which is about half of what the betting market thinks Connor McDavid is worth based on situations in the past. For example, sportsbooks had listed the Oilers as a -160 road favourite ahead of a game against the Minnesota Wild back on October 24th. However, it was later revealed that McDavid would miss the game due to injury and the Oilers’ closed with pick ‘em odds, which is a drop of about 10 percent.

McDavid hasn’t missed much time in his career, so there aren’t a lot of examples of his impact on the betting market, but from what we have seen, the odds typically move 10 percent or more. From a betting standpoint, this means that Edmonton’s chances should drop even further, from the current odds of -115, once the team confirms that McDavid will miss Wednesday’s game.

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Team Betting Trends

Edmonton is 6-4 straight up in its last 10 games, but the Oilers have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games at home. Vegas, meanwhile, has gone 4-6 straight up away in its last 10 away from home.
The Oilers are 7-3 straight up against the Golden Knights in the regular season dating back to the start of the 2022-23 campaign. Six out of the last 10 meetings have featured seven goals or more.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Leon Draisaitl has six goals and nine assists in his last 10 games. He is listed at +110 to score a goal, while Zach Hyman, who also has six goals in his last 10 games, is listed at even money.
Mattias Ekholm has five goals and eight assists in his last 10 games, while his partner Evan Bouchard has two goals and 14 assists. Ekholm is priced at +400 to score a goal, while Bouchard is sitting at +275. Ekholm leads all blueliners in even-strength scoring since the All-Star break.
Jack Eichel has scored eight goals and four assists for 12 points in his last 10 games. He is the Golden Knights’ only point-per game player during that stretch. Eichel is listed at +135 to score a goal.
William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault both have nine points over their last 10 games, with three and four goals respectively. Karlsson is priced at +220 to score a goal, while Marchessault is listed at +140.
Only Jack Eichel has taken more shots (52) than Noah Hanafin (26) over the team’s last 10 games. Eichel’s shots on goal prop is set at 3.5, over -135. He’s hit that mark in seven out of his last 10 games. Meanwhile, Hanifin’s shots on goal prop is listed at 2.5, over +130. He’s hit that mark in five out of his last 10 games.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

The Oilers would be a big favourite with their captain in the lineup, but without him, this game is a virtual coin flip. With the playing field levelled so close to playoff time, this game should be tightly contested. Even without the likes of Mark Stone and Connor McDavid, both of these teams can score, particularly early in games. Edmonton and Vegas both rank among the top-10 teams in first-period goals since February first, and both rank among the bottom half of the league in first-period goals against.

Bet on both teams to score in the first period at +145 odds.