Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers will host Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks at Rogers Place on Saturday. The Blackhawks will be coming off a Friday night game in Winnipeg, while the Oilers face the Flames on Sunday to complete their own back-to-back set. This article breaks down the matchup from a betting perspective.

Despite being projected as one of the most improved teams, Chicago remains near the bottom of the league according to the betting market. Their road struggles from last season linger, with a dismal 7-32-2 record away from home, and Petr Mrazek, Saturday’s expected starter, fared no better on the road, going 4-20-1.

Chicago showed signs of life in their 5-2 season-opening loss to Utah, especially at 5-on-5, where they controlled 50% of the shots. However, their power play was ineffective, managing just two shots on goal during six minutes of power play time—both by Bedard. On Friday against the Jets, Chicago’s defense was impressive, keeping Winnipeg scoreless for nearly 59 minutes before losing in overtime. The power play looked much sharper in its lone opportunity, indicating potential improvement.

According to Evolving Hockey, Chicago has controlled over 56% of expected goals at 5-on-5, but Saturday presents a significant challenge. The Blackhawks were 2-9 in the second half of back-to-back games last season, with an even worse 1-5 mark as the road team. Facing a home favourite like Edmonton, especially with moneyline odds of -350 or more, Chicago’s straight-up record was a troubling 2-11.

It’s honestly hard to take anything away from the Oilers’ season opener against the Jets other than that it wasn’t their night. The game started out like any other, but the Oilers lost control of things during a 10-minute stretch to end the first period and begin the second.

Edmonton outshot Winnipeg 30-20 in the game but much of that push came when the Jets were leading by five goals and there was virtually no chance of overcoming that kind of deficit with Connor Hellebuyck in goal. Stuart Skinner will get a chance to redeem himself, but Calvin Pickard will be making his first start of the season in one of the next two games and we don’t yet know which one.

Head coach Kris Knoblauch said on Friday that his desire is to see his team focus on defending and let the offense come to them naturally. The coach did note that half the D corps is new and they’re still working on things, but they’ll have to figure it out quickly if they want to avoid another slow start to a season.

Chicago shouldn’t pose much of a challenge for the Oilers, though. Edmonton went 7-1 against tired teams at home last season and was a perfect 8-0 when entering home games with moneyline odds of -280 or better. Given these stats, the Oilers will have no excuses if they come out flat in this one.

My strategy here is to continue backing the newcomers, as I believe the betting market hasn’t fully accounted for how much playing alongside Leon Draisaitl will elevate these two players.

Arvidsson fired two shots on four attempts in 15:56 of ice time against Winnipeg, while the Oilers controlled 62% of the expected goals during his shifts at 5-on-5. Individually, Arvidsson generated almost 0.5 expected goals, ranking second on the team in this metric.

Early odds for Sunday suggest Edmonton will be somewhere in the neighborhood of a -250 moneyline favourite when they host the Calgary Flames (+200). Calgary opened its season with a thrilling come-from-behind victory over the Canucks in Vancouver. The Flames are currently without Yegor Sharangovich, who led the team in scoring last season. Calgary hosts the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.