NHL Betting Preview (April 26): Oilers vs. Kings Game 3 Odds
8 days ago
Edmonton won Game 1 in dominant fashion, but Los Angeles responded in Game 2, with a 5-4 overtime victory, to tie the series. Now, this Pacific Division matchup is a best-of-five. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make Game 3 interesting, from a betting perspective.
Oilers vs. Kings Game 3 Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -140
- Los Angeles Kings Moneyline Odds: +120
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+180), Kings +1.5 (-220)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Series Odds Update
The Oilers were listed as a -210 series favourite before Game 1. After their 7-4 win, their odds jumped to -450. Now that the series is tied, Edmonton’s odds of winning the series are at -200. The odds also suggest that the series will go at least six games, with the total set at over 5.5 (-340). Currently, the Oilers have the fifth-best odds (+650) to win the Stanley Cup. Los Angeles’ Cup odds are currently 25/1 at Bet365.
Handicapping the Oilers (49-34 SU, 38-45 ATS, 36-44 O/U)
The Oilers showed maturity by winning the first game of the series, but their performance in Game 2 fell far short of playoff standards. Edmonton deserves credit for twice battling back, but they need to improve defensively after allowing four or more goals in back-to-back games. Much of the responsibility falls on goaltender Stuart Skinner, who has now allowed four-plus goals in seven out of his last nine playoff appearances.
According to Meghan Chayka of Statletes, Skinner has allowed five goals off of low danger shots, the most of any goaltender in the playoffs thus far. In terms of expected goals, Skinner has allowed nine goals on 89 shot attempts or 5.9 expected goals, per Evolving Hockey. Goaltending is never going to be Edmonton’s biggest strength, but it can’t be a glaring weakness like it has been.
The Oilers are now 6-7 straight up in the playoffs with Skinner between the pipes, and they haven’t been very good on the road this season. Edmonton finished the season with a plus-63 goal differential on home ice, nobody was better. However, the Oilers posted a minus-seven goal differential on the road, and went 21-20 straight up. Bettors don’t seem to be too worried about it, though, seeing as how Edmonton’s odds have moved from -130 to -140.
Handicapping the Kings (45-38 SU, 39-44 ATS, 32-48 OU)
Los Angeles was outplayed badly by Edmonton in Game 1. Per Evolving Hockey, the Oilers owned 58 percent of the expected goals and 55 percent of the shots at even strength. The Kings came to play in Game 2, though, owning 58.5 percent of the expected goals and 56.5 percent of the shots. That’s a hell of a response from the Kings, but you can bet that Edmonton is going to push back hard. However, this is a home game for the Kings, and they’ve got a better chance of winning as a result.
The Kings are still an underdog, but they’re listed at +120 (45.5% implied win probability), compared to +145 (41%) in Game 1, and +170 (37%) in Game 2. The Kings hosted the Oilers twice in the regular season. They lost 3-2 in a shootout on Dec. 30, but shut out the Oilers on Feb. 10 by a score of 4-0. Los Angeles has gone 2-4 straight up at home against the Oilers in the playoffs, but it’s worth noting that they’ve taken either Game 3 or Game 4 each time.
Special teams could be a killer for the Kings, though. Edmonton has converted on four out of seven power play opportunities, while the Kings have yet to convert on any of their five chances with the man advantage. That must change for Los Angeles to win the series. Otherwise, the Oilers will send them to the golf course for the third year in a row.
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Team Betting Trends
- In Game 1, the total was set at six goals (under -125), but shifted to six goals (over -115) in Game 2. However, sportsbooks are now listing the over/under at 6.5 goals (under -120) following final scores of 7-4 and 5-4 in the first two games.
- Friday marks the 16th time Edmonton will face Los Angeles in a playoff game since 2022, and the Oilers have scored four-plus goals in 10 of the previous games. In fact, Edmonton has scored four or more goals in six out of its last seven playoff games against the Kings.
- In the last 15 playoff meetings between these two teams, seven games have been decided by one goal and five of the games went to overtime. Bettors can bet that Game 3 will need overtime at +320 odds, which implies a 23.8% chance.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Connor McDavid has recorded two or more points in 11 out of 15 career playoff games against Los Angeles. Game 2 marked only the fourth time that the Oilers’ captain finished a playoff game against the Kings with one point or fewer. McDavid is listed at +155 to score two-plus points in Game 3.
- Zach Hyman has scored four goals in two playoff games, giving him 18 goals in his first 30 playoff games with the Oilers. Only Wayne Gretzky scored more goals in his first 30 playoff games with the team. Hyman had five goals in 32 playoff games as a member of the Maple Leafs. He is listed at +130 to score a goal on Friday.
- Adrian Kempe has three goals and one assist in the series. The 27-year-old has now scored 10 goals and eight assists in 15 career playoff games against Edmonton. He is priced at +170 to score a goal in Game 3.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Ideally, Skinner would shut down the Kings in Game 3, but it’s more likely that the home team will find a way to score at least three goals. After all, the 25-year-old has allowed three or more goals in 11 out of his 15 playoff appearances. Therefore, there’s a good chance that Edmonton will be forced to put out offensively. Bettors can simply bet the game to go over the total of 6.5 goals at even money (+100), but wagering that the Oilers will go over their two-way team total (3.5 goals) is a slightly better look at +110 odds.
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