The Edmonton Oilers will look to even up their series with the Los Angeles Kings when they play Game 4 Sunday evening at Rogers Arena. While across the entire NHL, home ice has not statistically been advantageous over the last several postseasons, it was expected to play a key role in this series, and that has been the case so far, as home teams are 3-0.

Oddsmakers are not sold on the idea that the Oilers turned the tide in this series with their momentous comeback in Game 3, as Edmonton is currently less favoured in Sunday’s matchup than it was in Game 3, while the total has been adjusted to 6.5.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Kings have struggled to own the big moments during their last three playoff series against the Oilers, which is one key reason that they just can’t seem to get past Edmonton in the first round, as even in years past when the Kings appeared to be a lesser team, they did garner a decent share of the overall run of play at even strength.

This year’s edition of the Kings looked to be a better offensive team than any of the ones that have failed to get past the Oilers recently, as several key offensive skaters have taken steps forward, and the team is playing a slightly more offensive style than in years past under former head coach Todd McLellan.

Offensively, the Kings will once again be pleased with their performance in Game 3. They generated 10 high-danger scoring chances and 25 scoring chances and were able to expose the Oilers defensive core once again, albeit to a lesser extent than in Games 1 and 2. Calvin Pickard should certainly have saved Trevor Moore’s goal, the Kings fourth of the game, but the other three goals all came on chances that should not be expected to be saved.

The Kings much-improved power play broke through with two more goals in Game 3 and currently ranks first in the NHL this postseason, having succeeded on 58.3% of opportunities. Adding Andrei Kuzmenko did not necessarily seem like an overly noteworthy move on deadline day, but it’s proved to be a huge addition that has helped the Kings find more success in an area that has been their Achilles heel in recent years.

While the Oilers still offered some shaky defensive play and received a fairly mediocre start in goal from Pickard, they were the better team overall and were deserving of the critical victory. Edmonton looked well connected in exhibiting a strong five-man attack in the offensive zone and generated plenty of looks in the most dangerous areas of the ice.

There were some important individual performances from the Oilers in Game 3, as it was more than simply the team’s top stars that looked good.

Evander Kane was involved all night long and was rewarded with two points, including a critical game-tying goal late in the third period. Kane is obviously capable of bringing a physical edge that is particularly impactful this time of year, but his puck touches were also crisp in Game 3, and he is capable of providing some desperately needed depth scoring for an Oilers side that is looking more top heavy than it did during last year’s run to the Cup Final.

I’ll be the first to admit that I did not believe signing John Klingberg would work out for the Oilers and felt the 32-year-old was no longer capable of being a useful defender at the NHL level. Klingberg shut doubters like myself up with his performance in Game 3, as he was effective overall and was not exposed defending the rush in the same way that he has been over the last several seasons.

Finding more success on the power play was the most logical avenue for the Oilers game to improve after Games 1 and 2, and they were able to do so in Game 3 as Evan Bouchard tallied two power-play goals. The exact same five-man unit succeeded on 29.7% of opportunities last postseason and 46.2% of opportunities in the 2022-23 postseason, and it could easily offer an avenue for the Oilers to take over this series.

It’s interesting to see that oddsmakers actually prefer the Kings’ chances in this game compared to Game 3, as the Oilers played well in that game overall and showed some improvement in several key areas of the game. At -135, backing the Oilers would be my lean in terms of a side, but I see more value with the total.

Despite the defensive upside of the Kings, the Oilers’ high-powered offence has been able to generate plenty of quality chances in this series and looked particularly good in Game 3. Defensively, the Oilers still have plenty of questions to answer, while their goaltending situation still looks pretty iffy with Pickard likely to start.

The Oilers penalty kill has struggled mightily in this series, but their power play appears to keep making more of an impact, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them win the special teams battle the rest of the way.

The first three games of the series have seen an average of 10 goals per game. Oddsmakers have moved the Game 4 total up to 6.5 after we saw a total of 5.5 in Game 1, but even that adjustment may not be adequate, as it’s hard to see enough factors changing to lead to a significantly lower goal output in this matchup.

At -110 or better, I see value backing Game 4 to once again be somewhat of a shootout.