NHL Betting Preview (April 3rd): Oilers vs. Stars Odds

Photo credit:Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

3 months ago

Edmonton and Dallas go head-to-head in what could be a preview of the Western Conference final. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this interdivisional matchup so interesting, from a betting perspective.

Oilers vs. Stars Odds

Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: +105
Dallas Stars Moneyline Odds: -125
Puck Line Odds: Oilers +1.5 (-240), Stars -1.5 (+175)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -110, under -110)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

If you don’t yet have a Betway account, sign up now to bet on the Oilers vs. Stars game today!

Last Matchup

The Oilers are Stars last met on February 17th in Dallas. The first period was scoreless, but then the two teams combined to score six goals in the second period and the game went to overtime tied at 3-3. Overtime lasted just thirty seconds, though, as Evan Bouchard ripped home his second goal of the game to secure the win for Edmonton. Dallas outshot the Oilers 27-24 in the game. The Stars were a -126 favourite, while the Oilers were a +114 underdog.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Thursday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Stars (47-28 SU, 33-42 ATS, 41-33 O/U)

Dallas has had three days off, compared to one day off for the Oilers. Home teams have won 53.8 percent of the games year-to-date, but the good guys have a 59 percent win rate in situations like this one where the road team is at a rest disadvantage. So why isn’t Dallas a bigger favourite?

Well, the simple explanation is that the betting market rates Edmonton higher than Dallas, but moreover, the Stars have had trouble securing victories on home ice this season. The Stars are tied for the fewest (13) home wins in regulation of any team in the playoff picture. Dallas does have a .611 win percentage on home ice, but their average odds are closer to 64 percent and they have not been a profitable bet. In fact, if a bettor had placed a $100 bet on Dallas to win every home game this season, they’d be down -$275. The Stars are hot, though, winning 11 of 13 games in March. Not to mention, the Stars rank first in expected goals (all situations) since the start of 2024. They’ve won 10 of their last 15 home games, too.

If the Stars have one weakness right now, it’s goaltender Jake Oettinger. He’s struggled this season, ranking 77th out of 99 goaltenders in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. He’s been great over his last five games, though, saving the team 4.3 goals above expected. Only a handful of goaltenders have been better.

Handicapping the Oilers (45-28 SU, 34-39 ATS, 32-38 O/U)

Edmonton’s average road odds are 61 percent, which means the Oilers have underperformed away from home this season with a .541 win percentage. This is not an average game for Edmonton, though, because the Oilers have only been an underdog seven times all year. Then again, based on their goal differential away from home, maybe they should’ve been a road dog more often. The Oilers have outscored teams 4.08 – 2.64 per game at Rogers Place, but Edmonton’s scoring rates for (3.18) and against (3.08) per game are much worse away from home.

Edmonton should treat this game differently than recent road games, but from a betting perspective, it’s tough to look at the current odds and get excited. If the Oilers are a better team than the Stars, the gap isn’t that big, and Dallas has the advantage of playing on home ice after having a few days off to prepare. Edmonton’s been mediocre away from home over the last couple of months, too, going 7-8 straight up since the All-Star break. Dallas deserves to be the favourite, and therefore, Edmonton’s +105 odds shouldn’t be all that appealing to bettors.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Team Betting Trends

Edmonton is 5-5 straight up in its last 10 road games, but they’re just 2-8 against the puck line. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone 6-4 straight up in its last 10 home games and 5-5 against the puck line. The Stars are also 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games overall.
Only one team has gone over more than the Dallas Stars this season, who have gone over the total in 56 percent of their games. However, they’ve only gone over 46 percent of the time since March 1st. Edmonton has gone over the total just 43.75 percent of the time since the start of March.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Mattias Ekholm is hot with four goals and nine assists in his last nine games played. None of which were scored on the power play. Ekholm is listed at +400 to score a goal on Wednesday, but unfortunately, Betway isn’t offering odds on him to score a point or an assist.
Leon Draisaitl has scored seven goals in his last 10 games, while Zach Hyman has scored nine goals in his last 10. Draisaitl and Hyman are listed at +115 and +110 in the anytime goal market, respectively.
Stars’ forward Jason Robertson leads the way with six goals and seven assists in his last 10 games. Robertson is listed at +200 to score a goal. Wyatt Johnston is also listed at +200 to score a goal. He has scored seven goals in his last 10 games. Captain Jamie Benn also has seven goals in his last 10 games. Benn is listed at +240 to score a goal.
Joe Pavelski has also been hot with 10 points in his last 10 games, including four goals. He is priced at +200 to score a goal and -134 to score a point.
It’s not all good, though, as Matt Duchene and Mason Marchment have just one goal each over their last 10 games. Duchene is listed at +250, while Marchment is +300.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

The Oilers and Stars are similar in a lot of ways, at least statistically. There are stylistic differences, though, and that shows up in defensive metrics. Edmonton has the edge with the puck, but the Stars are arguably the best defensive team in the league. These two teams have met twice already this season, and both games went to overtime. With both the Oilers and Stars looking to tighten up before the playoffs, bettors should expect another tightly contested affair. Edmonton can score early, but so can Dallas, as both teams rank among the top teams in terms of goals scored in the first period.

Bet both teams to score in the first period at +140.