NHL player futures have been appearing at sportsbooks for some time now, but as the season approaches, more and more markets are being released. One of the more recent additions to the odds board is regular season goalie wins, with Edmonton’s own Stuart Skinner featured prominently at the top of the list. Skinner’s regular season win total is 34.5 at bet365 and 35.5 at Bet99, so let’s try to answer some important questions.

Skinner appeared to have secured the No. 1 role heading into the 2023-24 season, or at least a 1A/1B situation, after making 48 starts in his first full NHL season, compared to just 36 for the expected starter Jack Campbell the previous year. However, after an impressive pre-season, Campbell seemed to have reclaimed the starting role, beginning four of the first six games. Despite this, Skinner ultimately took over, starting 57 games and making 59 appearances once things fell apart for Campbell.

Heading into the 2024-25 season, Skinner is undoubtedly the Oilers’ No. 1 goaltender, but his workload is expected to remain steady. He started eight of the first nine games under new head coach Kris Knoblauch, but the coach quickly gained confidence in his backup goaltender. Calvin Pickard saw more action as Knoblauch became more comfortable in his role and with the team’s position in the standings. Pickard started 20 games and made 23 appearances overall last season, with his first start coming on November 20th.

Edmonton had to rely heavily on Skinner to recover from a rough 2-9-1 start, but with a solid system now in place and Pickard established as the backup, that shouldn’t be necessary this time around. While this may not be a 1A/1B situation, Pickard should start between 25 and 30 games, and I’m predicting it will be closer to the latter. That means I’m guessing Skinner will make more than 50 starts, but fewer than 60.

Skinner has a .596 win rate over his last two seasons, with .58 and .61, respectively. He’ll need to be just as good as he was last season, or start more games, in order to set a new career high in wins this season and clear his total. Can Skinner play and win more games? Absolutely. There’s just no reason for the Oilers to rely on Skinner as heavily as they did last season—at least not at the moment.

Sure, if things hadn’t gone so disastrously for the Oilers, Skinner probably wouldn’t have lost six of his first seven games, but don’t count on him having as many winning streaks as he did last season either. That’s not to say his win total shouldn’t be as high as it is, but it doesn’t seem advantageous to wager $11 to win $10 on Skinner winning 35-plus games. It feels like you’re flipping an unfairly weighted coin, betting that everything will go right for the Edmonton-born netminder. A lot is working against the bettor, too, like the possibility of an injury, or potential defensive woes that are out of Skinner’s control.

If anything, it’s unfair that Skinner’s Vezina Trophy odds are so long. Skinner has arguably been as good as some of the goaltenders at the top of the board, but then again, the last 16 winners have posted a .921 save percentage or better, and he hasn’t shown that his ceiling is that high yet. Not to mention, it’s the only award that’s voted on by the general managers, at the end of a long season at that.

Skinner could crush the total set by oddsmakers and force his way into the Vezina Trophy conversation, similar to how he earned a nomination for the Calder Trophy two seasons ago, but there’s a lot working against him when it comes to earning any sort of individual accolades. Besides, Skinner and the Oilers are only concerned about the Stanley Cup.

Check out the full list of regular season win totals for goaltenders, along with their Vezina Trophy odds from Bet99 Sportsbook, but always shop around before locking in a bet for the season.