NHL Betting Preview (Feb. 23): Wild vs. Oilers Odds

Photo credit:Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

5 months ago

The Edmonton Oilers are big favourites heading into Friday’s game against the Minnesota Wild, but Oilers fans should ask themselves if the juice is worth the squeeze because the Wild are 9-2 straight up against the Oilers dating back to the start of the 2019-20 season. In this article, we’ll break down the odds and trends that make this Western Conference matchup so interesting.

Wild vs. Oilers Odds

Minnesota Wild Moneyline Odds: +160
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -190
Puck Line Odds: Wild +1.5 (-145), Oilers -1.5 (+115)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -125, under +105)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

About the Oilers (33-20 SU, 27-26 ATS, 24-26 O/U)

Wednesday’s 6-5 overtime loss against the Boston Bruins marked only the third time the Oilers have been defeated at Rogers Place in more than two months, so it could be an aberration. We’ll find out soon enough, though, as the Oilers still have four more home games in the next six days. From a betting perspective, they should be sizeable favourites in all four matchups, outside of maybe Monday’s clash with the Los Angeles Kings, so the odds are in their favour.

However, bettors should be looking for a buy-low spot on Edmonton’s moneyline, and this probably isn’t it. The Oilers have been arguably worse defensively since the beginning of February than they have been at any point under head coach Kris Knoblauch, and backup goaltender Calvin Pickard is slated to start.

Objectively, while the Oilers continue to find the net, securing victories has proven notably more challenging since the end of their 16-game win streak by the Vegas Golden Knights.

About the Wild (26-30 SU, 29-27 ATS, 27-25 O/U)

Minnesota has lost its last two trips to Oil Country, including a 4-3 decision on December 8th, but the Wild have had the Oilers’ number, winning the other nine meetings between the two teams over the last three full seasons. The Wild have won five of their last six road games, but they have gone 12-15 as the away team this season and have generally underperformed their odds.

Minnesota last played on Monday, losing 6-3 in Winnipeg, but they’ve performed well as the road underdog recently, going 4-1 in their last five. Prior to that, though, they were 3-11 as road dogs. That said, it’s all relative to the odds, which are already tilted heavily in the home team’s favour.

The Wild have pulled off upsets on the road against teams like the Florida Panthers (+173), Carolina Hurricanes (+162), and Boston Bruins (+186). Of course, they’ve also lost to Dallas (+169) and Edmonton (+165) on the road, but bettors should take the wide range of outcomes into consideration before betting on a side.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Last Matchup

As mentioned, the Wild had been getting the better of the Oilers, but Edmonton skated away with a 4-3 victory when these two teams last met back on December 8th. It was a come-from-behind win, though, as the Oilers coughed up a first period lead and had to battle back from down 2-1 and 3-2. Leon Draisaitl came up big in that game, scoring the tying goal late in the second period before setting up Evan Bouchard for the go ahead goal early in the third. The Oilers outshot the Wild 40-20 and finished the game with a 4.08 – 2.19 edge in expected goals, per Evolving Hockey. Edmonton closed as a -210 moneyline favourite, while Minnesota closed as a +150 underdog. The game went over the total of 6.5 (over -150), but the Oilers failed to cover the puck line (-1.5, +115). Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 36 shots in the loss and fell to 16-6-0-1 in his career versus the Oilers.

Key Injuries

For the Wild, defenseman Jared Spurgeon is out for the season, while forwards Marcus Foligno and Pat Maroon are out week-to-week. Defenseman Zach Bogosian is listed as day-to-day. On the home side, Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins missed Wednesday’s game due to illness.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the starting lineups and goaltenders.

Team Betting Trends

Edmonton is 8-2 straight up as the home team in its last 10 games, while the Wild are 6-4 as the road team in their last 10 games, and 6-4 in their last 10 visits to Edmonton.
The Oilers are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games, but 6-4 in their last 10 games overall, while Minnesota is 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games, but 7-2-1 in their last 10 on the road. Minnesota and Edmonton have combined for seven or more goals in seven out of the last 10 meetings, resulting in a 6-3-1 record to the over.
In their last 10 games as the favourite, Edmonton is 6-4 against the puck line, but 4-6 in their last 10 home games versus the Wild. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 6-4 against the puck line in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Connor McDavid has four goals and 25 points in his last 10 games. The Oilers’ captain is -599 (85.69% implied chance) to score a point on Friday. McDavid has scored a point in all but four games (90%) since the coaching change.
Warren Foegele made the most out of his time playing on the top line with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, scoring two goals on five shots in almost 19 minutes of ice time. Foegele’s anytime goal prop was +300 at Betway on Wednesday versus Boston, which is exactly how it was priced when the Oilers last played, meaning that the sportsbook didn’t adjust the odds after he was promoted to the top line. Foegele is down to +240 to score a goal on Friday, but it’s unclear if he’ll still be on the top line.
Corey Perry has three goals in his last four games, and his odds have gone from +325 in his first game with the Oilers, to +250 heading into Friday’s game against the Wild.
Joel Eriksson Ek has 16 points, including nine goals, in his last 10 games. Eriksson Ek is +155 to score a goal.
Kirill Kaprizov isn’t far behind with six goals and 11 assists in his last 10 games. Kaprizov is +135 to score a goal.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

On top of the fact that the matchup itself trends toward the over, betting the over in games where the Wild are a road underdog has been an extremely successful strategy year to date. Minnesota is 12-4-3 to the over in 19 games as a road underdog this season. The Oilers have allowed three or more goals in eight consecutive games and have gone over the total in five out the last six games.

Bet over 6.5 goals at -125.

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