The Edmonton Oilers visit the Dallas Stars on Saturday in a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final, where the Oilers stormed back to win the series in six games. Edmonton is looking to get back to .500 with a win, while both teams are considered top contenders this season, making this an early-season test for two of the Western Conference’s strongest clubs.
Oilers vs. Stars Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -115
- Dallas Stars Moneyline: -105
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (+200), Stars -1.5 (-250)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Matchup
Dallas went 5-4 straight up against Edmonton over the last three seasons and seemed poised to beat them in the Western Conference final before the Oilers rallied to win in six games. However, since the start of the 2024-25 season, the Stars have overtaken Edmonton as the Stanley Cup favorite and enter Saturday’s game as a slight moneyline favorite.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Saturday’s game.
Handicapping the Stars (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U)
Dallas started the season 4-0 before losing to Washington on Thursday, resting Jake Oettinger by starting Casey DeSmith. This keeps Oettinger fresh for Saturday’s matchup against the Oilers, just days after signing an eight-year extension. Oettinger is 3-0 this season with a 1.63 goals-against average and a .948 save percentage. Over his career, he’s posted a 3-2-1 record with a 2.68 GAA and a .905 save percentage against Edmonton in regular season play.
While the Stars appear strong overall, their underlying metrics are concerning. Oettinger has saved around five more goals than an average goaltender, including one shutout, while DeSmith also recorded a shutout in his first start. However, Evolving Hockey’s model shows that Dallas has only controlled 47 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five, down from their third-place finish in that category last season.
Scoring has also been an issue early on. After putting four past Juuse Saros in the opener, Dallas has managed three or fewer goals in each of their last four games. Despite finishing last season as the third-best offensive team, they’ve struggled on the power play, going just 1-for-17 after ranking sixth last season.
Handicapping the Oilers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-2-1 O/U)
Any concerns about the Oilers should be behind them. While there may still be growing pains with the influx of new defensemen, the team remains a powerhouse. According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton has controlled 58 percent of the shots and expected goals at even strength, and their power play (1-for-13) is bound to heat up soon.
Goaltender Stuart Skinner is also coming off his best start of the season against the Flyers, which should give him confidence heading into this game. He’s a big reason why Edmonton holds bragging rights over the Stars heading into this game.
The betting market hasn’t shifted much, though. The Stars were -130 favorites in Game 1 of last season’s playoff series versus the Oilers, and they’re -125 favorites to open this season’s matchup, making it one of the few times Edmonton has positive moneyline odds. However, the Oilers went 3-4 straight up as road underdogs last season, with all those games happening after the coaching change, for those curious.
Edmonton does have more options after moving forward Jeff Skinner to the third line, though. I was a big proponent of having Skinner and Arvidsson skate alongside either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but Skinner has fit in perfectly alongside Adam Henrique and Connor Brown.
My best bet
Backing Edmonton as an underdog is tempting, but I’m focusing on one player who’s consistently delivered and another who has yet to make his mark but is worth a gamble.
Jeff Skinner Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
Despite limited ice time in his last two games (11:49 and 13:04), Skinner continues to be a volume shooter. He leads the team in shots on goal, five more than defenseman Mattias Ekholm, and even more than McDavid. Skinner has hit this prop in all but one game, and while the Stars have been average at suppressing shots, they might struggle to adjust in time. Skinner at +110 on Sports Interaction is solid value.
Viktor Arvidsson Over 0.5 Points (+115)
Skinner has impressed Oilers fans, but Viktor Arvidsson has yet to make an impact. His shot rate is down compared to his seasons with the Kings. However, Arvidsson is capable of driving play, and a change in linemates could spark that potential. With 60-plus point ability, he’s worth a shot at +115.
