NHL Betting Preview (June 2): Oilers vs. Stars Game 6 Odds
1 month ago
The Oilers enter Sunday’s Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead after their 3-1 win over the Stars in Game 5. Edmonton can book a ticket to the Stanley Cup Final with a win. This article breaks down the odds and trends that will help inform your betting decisions.
Oilers vs. Stars Game 6 Odds
- Dallas Stars Moneyline Odds: +120
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -140
- Puck Line Odds: Stars +1.5 (-225), Oilers -1.5 (+185)
- Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -105, under -115)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Updated Stanley Cup Odds
The Florida Panthers are the current Stanley Cup favourites (-120) at Bet365 following their series-clinching win in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final on Saturday. Edmonton, meanwhile, is +150, while Dallas is +675. The Oilers are currently a -360 favourite to win the Western Conference Final, which implies that they have a 78 percent chance of advancing to the Stanley Cup Final.
Handicapping the Oilers (11-6 SU, 6-11 ATS, 9-8 O/U)
It seemed like something clicked in Game 4. Not only did the Oilers overcome an early 2-0 deficit, but once they gained the lead, they didn’t let up. After falling behind 2-0 early in Game 4, the Oilers rallied to win 5-2. What followed in Game 5 was Edmonton’s most complete performance of the playoffs so far. Edmonton scored twice on the power play, something they hadn’t done in the four games prior, and held Dallas to just 10 shots on goal through the first 40 minutes. The Stars did push harder in the third period, but the Oilers stayed in control.
According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton owned 60 percent of the shot attempts and 66 percent of the expected goals in Game 5. Of course, the team was at its most dominant when Connor McDavid was deployed, as shot attempts were 34-8 in favour of the Oilers when No. 97 was on the ice. Dallas didn’t have an answer for McDavid, or Leon Draisaitl, in Game 4, and they weren’t able to control the duo in Game 5. Moreover, Edmonton’s role players are making bigger contributions on both sides of the puck.
Still, goaltending is the biggest factor. Both Stuart Skinner and Jake Oettinger have been solid in this series, but the margin for error has been thin. For example, Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model suggests that Skinner has saved the Oilers about three goals more than an average goaltender would have. So, his ability to raise his game throughout this series is a big reason why Edmonton’s odds of winning a given game have improved throughout the series.
Handicapping the Stars (62-37 SU, 43-56 ATS, 49-49 O/U)
Although head coach Pete DeBoer might suggest otherwise, his team showed little fight in Game 5 after falling down 3-0 to the Oilers. The Stars did score a goal in the third period, but at no point did it seem like they had control of the play. The team looks like it’s been running out of steam, while Edmonton has been gaining momentum. However, let’s not forget how hard it’s been to hold momentum in this series.
Let’s not dismiss the fact that Dallas has been a great road team all season long, either. The Stars went 26-15 away from home during the regular season and were 6-1 as the road team before losing Game 4 to Edmonton. Additionally, the road team is 44-36 (.550) this postseason. The Stars have been resilient this postseason, overcoming series deficits in all three rounds, but they don’t have the same swagger that they did coming into the series.
Dallas was in control versus the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche, but they haven’t looked the part in the Western Conference Final. Edmonton has controlled play in four out of the five games, and what looked like best-on-best hockey in Games 1-3 has started to tilt more and more in the Oilers’ favour. According to Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton has owned a 54 percent share of both 5-on-5 shot attempts and expected goals in the series.
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Team Betting Trends
- Connor McDavid has two goals and six assists in his last five games. McDavid is also second on the team in shots on goal (21) during that stretch. McDavid wasn’t shooting the puck a lot coming into the Western Conference Final, but he’s registered at least four shots on goal in four out of five games versus the Stars.
- Evan Bouchard has been logging almost 26 minutes per game in this series, and the Oilers have been better off for it. Bouchard has one goal and four assists in his last five games.
- The stars have gone quiet in Dallas. No goals from Matt Duchene, Joe Pavelski, or Roope Hintz, and Jason Robertson hasn’t made a peep since his hat trick in Game 3.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Leon Draisaitl led Edmonton in scoring heading into the Western Conference Final, but Oilers’ captain Connor McDavid has scored two goals and five assists in his last four games. With 28 points in 16 games, McDavid now has the second-best odds of winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the playoffs.
- Edmonton has scored nine goals, compared to just four for Dallas, with Evan Bouchard on the ice. Bouchard has registered a point in all but three games this postseason. Overall, Edmonton has outscored the opposition 41-13 when Bouchard has been on the ice this postseason.
- Tyler Seguin has registered 15 shots in four games versus Edmonton so far in the postseason. Seguin has registered three or more shots in three out of four games against Edmonton and he has hit that mark in 12 of 16 playoff games overall.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Edmonton has covered the puck line in back-to-back games for the first time this postseason with a 5-2 win in Game 4 and a 3-1 win in Game 5, and it’s become apparent that the Stars are a lot more likely to fall short offensively than the Oilers are. Edmonton has scored three or more goals in 14 out of 17 playoff games, but they’ve scored at least three goals in all eight home games. Meanwhile, the Stars have scored two or fewer goals in seven out of 18 games. Games 6 and/or 7 are typically low-scoring affairs, but given Edmonton’s offensive prowess, and the Stars’ desperation, I’d say it’s unlikely that this game will follow that trend. Game 5 was played at an incredible pace, but Edmonton dominated. The Stars will likely show a lot more willingness to create offense in Game 6, because it’s almost certainly going to take four goals (at least) to beat the Oilers on home ice. Bet over 5.5 goals at -105 odds.
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