NHL Betting Preview (Mar. 13): Capitals vs. Oilers Odds

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1 month ago

The Oilers kick off a four-game homestand on Wednesday versus the Washington Capitals and the odds are tilted heavily in their favour. This article will look at the odds and trends that make this interconference matchup interesting.

Capitals vs Oilers Odds

Washington Capitals Moneyline Odds: +230
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -275
Puck Line Odds: Capitals +1.5 (-105), Oilers -1.5 (-120)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

Edmonton visited the Capitals back on November 24th and earned its first road win under Kris Knoblauch. Stuart Skinner stopped all 25 shots he faced on route to a 5-0 win for the Oilers. Connor McDavid had four assists in the game, while Leon Draisaitl scored two on the power play and assisted on another at even strength. Edmonton peppered Charlie Lindgren with 35 shots and killed off five Washington power plays.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the starting lineups and goaltenders.

Handicapping the Capitals (30-33 SU, 30-33 ATS, 28-32 O/U)

Of their next four opponents, only the Colorado Avalanche should pose a real threat to the Oilers. However, the same could have been said heading into the Oilers’ recent road trip and they went 2-2 straight up despite being sizable favourites in two games. And, while it would be easy to dismiss the Washington Capitals as a non-playoff team, fans should understand that they are the fourth-most profitable moneyline bet this season for that very reason. Everybody is down on them.

Washington’s been scrappy lately, winning seven of its last 11 games, but let’s take a look at road games where Washington has had moneyline odds of +175 or more, though, As shown below, the Capitals started out strong with three big upsets in the first half of the season. Since then, however, betting one unit on the Capitals to win games in which their odds are +175 or more would have resulted in a loss of 4.62 units.

Oct. 25, WSH vs. NJD, 6-4 W, +201, -225
Nov. 29, WSH vs. LAK, 2-1 W, +185, -209
Dec. 17, WSH vs. CAR, 2-1 SOW, +205, -233
Dec. 27, WSH vs. NYR, 1-5 L, +179, -201
Jan. 14, WSH vs. NYR, 1-2 L, +217, -247
Jan. 24, WSH vs. COL, 2-6 L, +234, -268
Jan. 27, WSH vs. DAL, 4-5 OTL, +204, -231
Feb. 8, WSH vs. FLA, 2-4 L, +231, -264
Feb. 10, WSH vs. BOS, 3-0 W, +238, -273
Feb. 24, WSH vs. FLA, 2-3 OTL, +210, -239
Mar. 11, WSH vs. WPG, 0-3 L, +194, -219

Washington’s +230 moneyline odds imply that they’ve got a 30 percent chance of winning, but that’s too generous when you consider who they’re up against and how they’ve performed in these situations as of late.

Handicapping the Oilers (39-24 SU, 30-33 ATS, 26-34 O/U)

Edmonton should bounce back with a relatively light stretch of home games coming up. The Oilers are 9-1 at home this season when the betting market tags them with a price of -200 or more. Since losing to Vancouver 4-3 back in the home opener, the Oilers are 8-0 as a -200 favourite on home ice. Let’s look at those games for comparison.

Oct. 14, VAN vs. EDM, 4-3 W, +203, -227
Nov. 26, ANA vs. EDM, 2-8 W, +258, -298
Dec. 12, CHI vs. EDM, 1-4 W, +391, -473
Jan. 6, OTT vs. EDM, 1-3 W, +186, -210
Jan. 18, SEA vs. EDM, 2-4 W, +194, -219
Jan. 23, CBJ vs. EDM, 1-4 W, +299, -351
Jan. 25, CHI vs. EDM, 0-3 W, +469, -583
Jan. 27, NSH vs. EDM, 1-4 W, +200, -226
Feb. 13, DET vs. EDM, 4-8 W, +195, -220
Feb. 28, STL vs. EDM, 2-3 OTW, +244, -281

One thing that stands out is that all of Edmonton’s wins have come in regulation and they managed to cover the puck line 80 percent of the time. Washington is probably a better team than most on this list, though, and they don’t always go down easy. Plus, you’ve got to pay -120 to lay -1.5 goals with the Oilers and I just don’t find that very appealing. Especially when we don’t know who is going to start in goal for Washington.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Team Betting Trends

The Oilers are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 home games, but just 6-4 against the puck line. Washington has gone 4-6 straight up in its last 10 road games, and 5-5 against the puck line.
Edmonton is 8-2 to the under in its last 10 games overall, while the Capitals are 7-3-1 to the over in theri last 10 games.
The Capitals have gone 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games as an underdog, covering the puck line in seven of those matches. Meanwhile, the Oilers have gone 6-4 straight in their last 10 games as the favourite and they covered the puck line just three times.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Dylan Strome has been the Capitals’ best playmaker, registering 13 assists and two goals over his last 10 games. Strome leads the team with 22 goals and 29 assists in 63 games played this season. He is listed at -110 to score a point.
Alex Ovechkin and Connor McMichael have both scored four goals in the last 10 games. They are listed at +162 and +300, respectively, to score a goal.
Hendrix Lapierre and Sonny Milano have each scored five goals over their last 10 games. Neither player is listed on Betway to score a goal despite the fact that Lapierre plays on the top line and both players are on the power play.
Zach Hyman has scored nine goals in his last 10 games, but he doesn’t have a single assist. He is listed at +110 to score a goal on Wednesday.
Connor McDavid has scored eight goals and 13 assists in 13 career games versus Washington. He is listed at +105 to score a goal.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Washington has actually scored slightly more goals per 60 minutes (3.41) than Edmonton (3.38) since the start of February, and the Oilers have scored at least four goals in 19 out of the 24 home games they’ve played under Kris Knoblauch since the middle of November. The Capitals will likely lose this game, but based on their recent form, it’s unlikely that they go down as easily as they did the last time these two teams met.

Bet over 6.5 goals at even money.