NHL Betting Preview (March 10): Oilers at Penguins Odds
1 month ago
The Penguins and Oilers will meet for the second time this month on Sunday, as both teams look to get back in the win column. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this rematch worth betting on.
Oilers at Penguins Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -165
- Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline Odds: +135
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+140), Sabres +1.5 (-180)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -110, under -110)
All odds courtesy of Betway.
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Last Matchup
These two teams last met on March 3rd at Rogers Place after both teams had played the night before. Despite the tough schedule spot, the Oilers came into the game as a -210 favourite and after a relatively quiet first period, they exploded for four goals against goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic in the second to go up 5-0. Edmonton would go on to win the game 6-1. Connor McDavid potted a goal and added an assist, but Zach Hyman had two goals and Leon Draisaitl had three assists in the game. Calvin Pickard stopped 22 of the 23 shots he faced.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Saturday’s matchup.
Handicapping the Oilers (38-24 SU, 29-33 ATS, 26-33 O/U)
Edmonton’s last two games have been prime examples on why it’s so tough to win at sports betting when betting on big favourites, specifically on the road. And, most if not all of the value that was available, has disappeared overnight with Edmonton’s odds moving to -150 after opening up at -145. The Oilers were also priced at +165 on the puck line (-1.5 goals) but, because these betting markets are correlated, they move in lockstep. Edmonton’s puck line odds are now sitting at +140.
The Oilers have owned the Penguins in recent seasons, but bettors shouldn’t overlook the details, like the change in venue, because they clearly matter. Per Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton has outscored opponents 3.83 – 2.74 on home ice, compared to just 3.1 – 2.97 on the road. That’s a big drop off, and the Oilers should be facing off against a better goaltender (Tristian Jarry) this time around. Edmonton’s looked pretty average at even strength during this road trip, too.
Handicapping the Penguins (28-34 SU, 29-33 ATS, 24-33 O/U)
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been routed in three of their last four games, losing 6-1, 6-0, and 5-1 against Edmonton, Washington, and Boston. As a result, the Penguins are a bigger home underdog than they have been at any point this season. This will be just the 11th time that the Penguins have been a dog at home, and they have performed well in that small sample. Pittsburgh has gone 7-3 as a home underdog this season and if a bettor had wagered $100 on the Penguins in each of those games they’d have generated approximately $474 in profit.
If the Penguins didn’t look so rough lately, bettors might have a reason to bet them to beat Edmonton on Sunday, but their peripherals have been trending in the wrong direction. Per Evolving Hockey, Pittsburgh ranks 24th in even-strength expected goals percentage over the last month, or 15 games, and they rank 28th in goal differential per 60 minutes in all situations. Jarry has been solid in goal, though, ranking 12th in goals saved above expected, but he hasn’t looked as sharp in the last 10 games, posting a .886 save percentage and allowing approximately -1.75 goals above expected.
PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton is 6-4 straight up, 7-3 against the puck line, and 6-4 to the over in its last 10 games against Pittsburgh. The Oilers have won five straight meetings versus the Penguins and six out of the last seven overall. They’ve also covered the puck line in five straight games against the Pens, winning by three or more goals each time.
- Pittsburgh is 5-5 straight up in its last 10 home games, and 4-6 against the puck line. The Penguins have gone 6-2-2 to the over in their last 10 games overall but it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh has scored just 10 goals in its last six games.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Rickard Rakell and Kris Letang are leading the way for Pittsburgh with four goals each in the last 10 games, and therein lies a big part of Pittsburgh’s problem. The Penguins aren’t getting scoring from their top players. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson have combined for just four goals during that stretch.
- Edmonton didn’t get much scoring from their top guns on Saturday, but Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele stepped up, each scoring a goal and an assist. Foegele has been shooting the puck as much as Leon Draisaitl, and he’s registered three or more shots (over 2.5 +125) in his last 10 games.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Pittsburgh’s got to have some push back in them after this recent stretch, but short and long term trends suggest that they are still going to have a difficult time defending against this Oilers team.
Bet over 6.5 goals at -110.
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