NHL Betting Preview (March 16): Avalanche vs. Oilers Odds
1 month ago
Edmonton and Colorado will renew their rivalry with three meetings between now and the end of the regular season. This article will dive into the odds and trends to explain why the Oilers deserve to be the favourite in this matchup.
Avalanche vs Oilers Odds
- Colorado Avalanche Moneyline Odds: +115
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -135
- Puck Line Odds: Avalanche +1.5 (-210), Oilers -1.5 (+160)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -140, under +110)
All odds courtesy of Betway.
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Last Matchup
Although hockey fans we’ll be getting their fill of this match up over the next several weeks, the Avalanche and Oilers have not met since April 11th, 2023 in Colorado. The Avalanche opened the scoring on an unassisted goal from Ben Myers, but Edmonton answered back quickly with a first period goal of their own. The next goal came in overtime courtesy of Evan Bouchard. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl picked up the assists.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Saturday’s matchup.
Handicapping the Avalanche (42-25 SU, 33-34 ATS, 27-34 O/U)
The Avalanche rank first in scoring with 3.72 goals per game, but home and road splits matter. Colorado has outscored teams 4.26 – 2.52 on home ice (per 60 minutes). However, the Avs have been outscored 3.16 – 3.38 on the road, per Natural Stat Trick.
Of course, with the addition of trade deadline acquisitions Casey Mittelstadt and Sean Walker, coupled with the return of Val Nichushkin, Colorado may be on the verge of peaking. However, the Avalanche have underperformed away from Ball Arena, winning just 16 of 35 road games despite being the favourite in 25 of those games. The Avalanche have gone 4-6 in road games where they were not the favourite.
Colorado has gone 4-7 on the road since the All-Star break. Apart from their come-from-behind overtime win in Vancouver on Wednesday, they haven’t beaten any noteworthy teams away from home in two months. Additionally, the Avalanche have won just seven of 18 road games in which they had the same amount of rest days as the home team.
Both the Avalanche and Oilers have had two days off heading into this game.
Handicapping the Oilers (40-24 SU, 31-33 ATS, 27-34 O/U)
Edmonton’s home and road splits are startling, too, but they’ve got home-ice advantage in this game. The Oilers are the fourth-best offensive team this season, but only Colorado has scored more goals on home ice, and Edmonton has outscored teams at a rate of 3.93 – 2.71 per 60 minutes. Edmonton started out the season by going 1-5 at home, but the Oilers have a 20-5 record at Rogers Place under head coach Kris Knoblauch.
Moreover, Stuart Skinner is better than Alexander Georgiev, who ranks 31st in goals saved above expected, per Evolving Hockey. That gives the Oilers an apparent edge in goal, and one could argue that the Oilers have been better defensively overall. Edmonton does edge out Colorado in categories like shot attempts and expected goals against. However, these two teams are fairly evenly matched on special teams.
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Team Betting Trends
- Colorado is 4-2 straight up in its last six regular season games against Edmonton, with five of those games being decided by one goal.
- The Avalanche are 4-6 as road underdogs this season for -4.68 units. Colorado is 16-19 straight up as the road team for -6.61 units.
- The Oilers are 21-10 as the home team this season but this will be just the third time that their moneyline odds have been -130 or lower. Overall, Edmonton has gone 21-10 as the home team for -0.83 units year-to-date.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Nathan MacKinnon has registered nine goals and 14 assists in his last 10 games. Only Connor McDavid has registered more points than MacKinnon since the All-Star break. MacKinnon is listed at even money (+100) to score a goal against the Oilers.
- MacKinnon has averaged 5.56 shots per game since the beginning of February, his shots on goal prop total is set at 4.5 and is shaded to the under at -150. Over 4.5 shots is listed at +110.
- Mikko Rantanen has scored five goals and 14 assists in his last 10 games. He is listed at +115 to score a goal on Saturday.
- Cale Makar has scored four goals and nine assists in his last 10 games. Makar is listed at +275 to score a goal and -125 to register an assist.
- Val Nichushkin has scored a goal in each game since returning to action. He is listed at +140 to score a goal against Edmonton.
- Zach Hyman has 11 goals in his last 10 games played, but he doesn’t have a single assist during that stretch. Hyman is listed at +115 to score a goal against the Avalanche.
- Connor McDavid has put up four goals and 15 assists in his last 10 games, while Leon Draisaitl has scored five goals and registered 11 assists in his last 10. McDavid and Draisaitl are both listed at +115 to score a goal.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
The draw is a bet worth considering at +320, but be careful when browsing on Betway because there could be some confusion. While the ‘will there be overtime?’ prop is listed at +280, the three-way moneyline (win/draw/win) has overtime listed at +320. This matchup has gone to overtime four times in a row. Bet on it ending in a regulation draw once again at +320.
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