NHL Betting Preview (March 19): Canadiens vs. Oilers Odds

Photo credit:© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

1 month ago

The Oilers could not get past the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, but the odds are tilted heavily in their favour on Tuesday. This article will break down tonight’s matchup between the Oilers and Canadiens from a betting perspective.

Canadiens vs Oilers Odds

Montreal Canadiens Moneyline Odds: +310
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -400
Puck Line Odds: Montreal +2.5 (-135), Oilers -2.5 (+105)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -115, under -105)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

Edmonton and Montreal last met on January 13th and the Canadiens’ power play got to work early as Cole Caufield opened the scoring. The Canadiens actually held the lead through to the second intermission, but Leon Draisaitl tied the game in the opening minute of the third period. This set the stage for Draisaitl and Connor McDavid to set up Evan Bouchard for the winning power play goal in overtime. Stuart Skinner stopped 23 of the 24 shots the Canadiens sent his way, but Samuel Montembeault had a bigger workload, turning away 39 of 41 shots.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Tuesday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Canadiens (25-42 SU, 43-24 ATS, 34-31 O/U)

Montreal’s moneyline odds (+310) implies less than a 25 percent chance of winning, but that’s probably still too generous given how they’ve performed on the road lately, winning just five of their last 20 games. Moreover, the Canadiens have lost 13 of 15 road games in which their moneyline odds are +200 or greater and they are virtually incapable of dictating the pace away from home. The Canadiens have cleared the six and a half goal total in 14 of their last 20 road games.

Samuel Montembeault will start in goal for the Habs. He is not a goaltender the Oilers should take lightly, either, as he currently ranks among the top-15 goalies in goals saved above expected for the second year in a row. Montembeault has a record of 3-5-2 in 10 games with a goals against average of 3.10 and a .909 save percentage and the Canadiens have gone 8-2 to the over in those last 10 road games.

Per Evolving Hockey, the Canadiens have owned a 49.1 percent share of expected goals at 5-on-5 over the last month. That’s good for 19th in the NHL, which is solid considering where this team was at earlier this season.

Handicapping the Oilers (40-25 SU, 31-34 ATS, 27-35 O/U)

Edmonton hasn’t lost as a big favourite (-200 or more) on home ice since the season opener, going 10-1. It’s pretty tough to take advantage of this when the Oilers are -400 favourites, though. The Oilers regulation odds are -240 at Betway, and oddsmakers even adjusted the puck line to two and a half goals instead of the typical one and a half. The Canadiens have won just two out of 15 road games in which they have had moneyline odds of +200 or greater.

It’s unknown who will start for Edmonton, but regardless, the Oilers should win. That said, I wouldn’t bet on Calvin Pickard saving more goals than Stuart Skinner over a larger sample size, and should he start, the Canadiens will be more likely to find the back of the twine than they would with Skinner between the pipes. Both teams have had a couple of days off heading into this one, which means home-ice advantage should be strong no matter how much bleu, blanc, et rouge there is in the crowd at Rogers Place.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Team Betting Trends

Montreal is 2-8 straight up in its last 10 road games, but they are 6-4 against the puck line. The Canadiens have gone 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games away from home. Montreal is 4-6 straight up in its last 10 games against Edmonton and 5-5 on the puck line.
The Habs are 2-8 straight up in their last 10 as the underdog, but 7-3 against the puck line.
Edmonton is 6-4 straight up in its last 10 home games but just 5-5 against the puck line. The Oilers have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games as the favourite, but only 4-6 against the puck line.
Edmonton is 5-5 to the over in its last 10 home games and 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games against Montreal.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Habs’ forward Nick Suzuki has registered six goals and four assists in his last 10 games, while his linemate Cole Caufield has eight points in his last 10 games, but he’s only got one goal despite registering 20 more shots on goal than Suzuki during that stretch. Suzuki and Caufield are listed at +187 and +140 to score a goal respectively.
Connor McDavid leads the way for the Oilers with 17 points (four goals) over his last 10 games, while Zach Hyman leads all Oilers’ players in goals with nine over his last 10 games. McDavid is listed at +105 to score a goal, while Hyman is tagged with -106 odds.
Leon Draisaitl is also listed at +105 to score a goal. He’s put up five goals and 10 assists in his last 10 games.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Edmonton should win this game in lopsided fashion, but as a result, the sportsbooks have inflated their odds. The Oilers need to score at least five goals to clear their team total, which is set at 4.5 goals, and they’ll probably need to score that many to cover the puck line (-2.5 goals), but don’t discount Montreal’s competitiveness. They can often score enough to make the game interesting. Therefore, over 6.5 goals at -115 odds is very appealing considering how often the Canadiens have gone over the total as the road team.

Bet over 6.5 goals at -115.