NHL Betting Preview (March 2): Penguins vs Oilers Odds
4 months ago
Edmonton was able to stave off the Kraken’s comeback, winning 2-1 on Saturday in Seattle. The Oilers are already back in Edmonton, though, as they get set to play host to host Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins at Rogers Place on Sunday.
Penguins vs Oilers Odds
- Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline Odds: +160
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -190
- Puck Line Odds: Penguins +1.5 (-160), Oilers -1.5 (+120)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -105, under -115)
Last Matchup
This is the first meeting between the Penguins and Oilers, but the two teams will meet up again in Pittsburgh on March 10th.
Edmonton embarrassed the Penguins when these two teams met in Pittsburgh on Feb. 23rd, 2023. Pittsburgh opened the scoring in that game on Kris Letang goal, but the Oilers scored six in a row and went on to win the game by a score of 7-2. Connor McDavid scored two goals and an assist. Leon Draisaitl also had a goal and a helper. The Oilers outscored the Penguins 13-5 in two games last season.
Handicapping the Penguins (27-31 SU, 28-30 ATS, 22-33 O/U)
Pittsburgh looks like a decent team statistically, but they haven’t converted their strong play into wins, at least not on a consistent basis. Sunday will likely mark another loss, as the Penguins have not performed well as a road underdog this season, going 4-8. Pittsburgh has been overrated by the betting market, too, because if a bettor had blindly bet $100 on every Penguins game this season, they’d be down over $700, and only a handful of teams have been worse.
However, this could qualify as a buy-low spot, because Pittsburgh’s odds have not been this long at any point this season. In fact, the Penguins have only played five road games with moneyline odds of +120 or worse and they are 2-3 straight up in those games. But, my estimation, Pittsburgh will win the game approximately 37 percent of the time, so +160 odds won’t cut it because that implies they’ve got a 38.5 percent chance.
Handicapping the Oilers (36-22 SU, 28-30 ATS, 25-30 O/U)
Edmonton has owned this matchup in recent years. Not only have they gone 5-1 versus Pittsburgh since the start of the 2019-20 season, they’ve dominated the Penguins over the last two years, winning by scores of 7-2, 6-3, 5-2, and 5-2. However, while sports betting markets underestimated the Oilers in past matchups versus the Penguins, that doesn’t look to be the case on Sunday, as the Oilers are a -190 moneyline favourite.
Will the Oilers win? Probably, but they looked awful when they had to play two games in two nights last week, losing 6-3 to the Flames. This time around, they’ll have flown to Seattle and back, and Calvin Picard will be in goal. The Penguins have a lot of flaws, but bettors shouldn’t underestimate how tough of a spot this could end up being, regardless of the opponent. I estimate Edmonton will win the game around 63 percent of the time, which converts to -168 odds. Not unreasonable when you consider the schedule and the fact that the Oilers have a 66 percent win rate at home this season.
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Key Injuries
No injuries for the good guys, but the road team is missing a couple of key pieces. Jake Guentzel, who has been linked to several teams ahead of the NHL’s trade deadline, was injured on Feb. 14th in a game versus the Florida Panthers. He skated on Saturday for the first time since the injury, albeit in a non-contact jersey. Meanwhile, Bryan Rust, who was rolling offensively with six goals in his last seven games, was injured in the Penguins 7-6 win over the Flyers on Feb. 25th. He is not travelling with the team on this road trip.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the starting lineups and goaltenders.
Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton is 5-5 straight up in its last 10 games against Pittsburgh, but the Penguins are 3-7 in their last 10 road games, while the Oilers are 7-3 in their last 10 games at home. Edmonton has is 13-8-1 against Eastern Conference teams this season overall and 8-3-1 at home with losses against the Bruins, Rangers, Panthers, and Lightning.
- Pittsburgh is 4-6 straight up in its last 10 games, and 3-7 as the underdog. Pittsburgh is 6-4 against the puck line in its last 10 on the road despite being 3-7 straight up.
- The Penguins rank 23rd in goals per 60 minutes in all situations, and as a result, they have been an under team all season. The Penguins have gone 7-3 to the under in their last 10 road games.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Sidney Crosby comes into this game having scored four goals and seven assists in his last 10 games. Crosby has amassed 63 points in 58 games, including 32 goals. He is listed at +125 to score a goal on Sunday.
- Connor McDavid has scored just one goal in his last 10 games, but he’s got 23 assists during that stretch. McDavid has scored four goals and eight assists for 12 points in his last four games against the Penguins. He is listed at +115 to score a goal.
- Evan Bouchard has four goals and 13 points in his last 10 games, but his ice-time could be significantly lower than usual. Bouchard is listed at -125 to score a point on Sunday.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
If anything, the Oilers’ odds are inflated, and while there might not be value in betting the Penguins to actually pull off the upset, scheduling and goaltending could open the door enough for Pittsburgh just enough to keep it close.
Bet on the draw at +330 at Betway.
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