Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s Pacific Division matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks.
Oilers vs. Ducks Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -150
- Anaheim Ducks Moneyline: +125
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+155), Ducks -1.5 (-190)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Oilers (44-32 SU, 27-49 ATS, 34-41-1 O/U)
Edmonton’s three-game win streak came to an end Saturday in Los Angeles, as the Oilers fell 3-0 to the Kings. After a scoreless first period, Los Angeles scored twice in the second and added an empty-netter in the final minutes to seal the win. Edmonton is now 2-4-0 this season without both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the lineup, and they were also missing Mattias Ekholm and Stuart Skinner on Saturday.
The Oilers will now close out their four-game road trip against the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim has taken two of three meetings this season—winning 5-3 at home on Dec. 29 and 6-2 in Edmonton on March 4—but the Oilers are 11-3 against the Ducks since the start of the 2021-22 season. Edmonton has outscored Anaheim 71-37 over that 14-game span, though they haven’t scored more than three goals in a game against them this season. Monday’s game will be the final meeting between the two clubs.
Winger Trent Frederic made his Oilers debut Saturday after recovering from an injury sustained before the trade deadline. He played just 7:10 in the game but recorded two shots, two hits, and made his presence felt in front of the net. Frederic should be expected to take on a bigger role Monday against Anaheim.
Evan Bouchard and Jake Walman combined for 11 of Edmonton’s 27 shots on goal on Saturday. Bouchard had nine shot attempts and seven shots on goal, while Walman added eight attempts and four shots. Viktor Arvidsson was the only forward to register more than two shots on goal, which helps explain why the team was shut out.
Calvin Pickard has performed solidly in his current run as the Oilers’ starter. The 32-year-old is 3-2 with a .904 save percentage and a 2.78 goals against average. According to Evolving Hockey, Pickard has been about average, allowing roughly as many goals as expected based on shot quality.
Handicapping the Ducks (33-43 SU, 51-25 ATS, 29-42-5 O/U)
The Ducks have dropped back-to-back road games, falling 4-1 to the Calgary Flames and 6-2 to the Vancouver Canucks. Now, the Ducks return home to host the Oilers and Flames at Honda Center. Anaheim is 19-17-2 at home this season but has gone 13-6-1 on home ice since Dec. 29, when they beat the Oilers.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Ducks rank 30th in expected goals and shot attempts at five-on-five this season. However, their offense has come alive lately, ranking among the top five teams in both goals and expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five since March 1.
Leo Carlsson has scored nine goals and 17 points over that stretch, while Mason McTavish leads the way with 18 points. Jackson Lacombe continues his breakout season, and both Cutter Gauthier and Trevor Zegras have put up respectable offensive numbers.
That offensive surge could present problems for the Oilers on Monday, though Anaheim remains one of the league’s weakest defensive teams. Since the start of March, only two teams have allowed more expected goals, and no team has given up more shot attempts.
Adding to the concern is the recent decline in goaltending. Prior to March, Lukas Dostal and John Gibson ranked third and 14th respectively in goals saved above expected. Since then, both have posted below-average numbers in that category.
So while Anaheim’s offensive improvement is encouraging, the drop-off in goaltending is a major reason to temper expectations. Gibson was injured in Thursday’s loss to the Flames, so the Oilers are likely to face Dostal on Monday. Since March 1, Dostal has a 3.54 goals against average and a .882 save percentage.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Ducks
Viktor Arvidsson Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-130) at Sports Interaction
Arvidsson ranks second on the team in shots on goal over the last 10 games, with a large portion of those coming in his last four outings. He’s recorded four or more shots in four straight games and has been rewarded with three goals during that stretch. Given Anaheim’s struggles to suppress shots, I’d expect him to keep that pace going on Monday.
