NHL Betting Preview (March 24): Oilers at Senators Odds

Photo credit:Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

1 month ago

Edmonton will look to bounce back after a tough loss to the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Saturday. This article will look at the odds and trends that make Sunday’s game against the Ottawa Senators interesting, from a betting perspective.

Oilers at Senators Odds

Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -190
Ottawa Senators Moneyline Odds: +160
Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+115), Senators +1.5 (-145)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -150, under +115)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

These two teams last met on Jan. 6th at Rogers Place and the Oilers handed the Senators a 3-1 loss. Zach Hyman scored all three goals, and Evan Bouchard picked up three assists. Stuart Skinner stopped 29 of 30 shots faced, but Anton Forsberg saw the majority of the action. The Senators goaltender made 43 stops but that wasn’t enough because Edmonton scored three goals on 46 shots.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Sunday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Oilers (42-26 SU, 32-36 ATS, 29-36 O/U)

After losing to Colorado last Saturday on home ice, the Oilers should have been up for this Saturday’s game in Toronto. The Maple Leafs were missing both Mitch Marner and Tyler Bertuzzi, two of their top goal scorers. However, the Oilers found themselves down 5-0 at the end of 40 minutes. Edmonton made things slightly more interesting by scoring a couple of power play goals in the third period, which allowed them to pull the goaltender and get another goal with the extra man, but that’s as close as they came to coming back. Which brings us to Sunday’s game versus the Senators.

Edmonton should be up for this game, but they’re .500 in 12 road games since the All-Star break and we just watched them lose to the likes of Buffalo and Columbus on the road two weeks ago. Not to mention, if a bettor had bet $100 on Edmonton to win every game in which they have been a big road favourite (-200 or more), they’d have gone 6-3, but be down almost $100. Do you really want to bet on this team to win these types of road games when it doesn’t seem to be a winning strategy over the long term? The Oilers have been a road favourite in 28 games this season and they have only covered the puck line 11 times (39.3%) despite having average odds of around +135 or 42.8 percent.

Edmonton has dominated Ottawa in the McDavid era, going 15-8 straight up and winning 12 of the last 14 meetings. The Oilers defeated the Senators by a score of 6-3 in both meetings last season, and they won 3-1 in the lone meeting this season. Because of that, fans might think Edmonton is a great bet. Well, if the Oilers are such a great bet, why did Betway change their odds from -200, to -190 earlier this morning?

Handicapping the Senators (29-40 SU, 32-37 ATS, 37-29 O/U)

The Senators rank 28th in goals per 60 minutes (all situations) over the past month, but they played 10 of their last 14 games on the road and ranked 11th in that category between October and March. Ottawa will be tired after playing in New Jersey on Saturday, but the Oilers aren’t going to be fresh after dispensing so much energy trying to mount a comeback in Toronto. Of course, Ottawa is also one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking as the fifth-worst team in goals against per 60 minutes. They might get better goaltending from Anton Forsberg, though, who has only played in 25 games. He’s had a tough season, but historically, he’s been decent.

Ottawa’s only won 29 games this season (.42 win percentage) but the Senators home and road splits are important. The Sens have won just 31 percent of their road games, but they’re .500 at home this season. They’ve been a home underdog 16 times this season, and the road team has only covered the puck line in six of those games. That’s not to say the Oilers won’t blow out the home team on Sunday, just consider that there’s a wide range of outcomes because Senators are such a mixed bag. They’ve won outright, or kept it close, against some good teams over the last couple of months at home, but they’ve also been blown out by some of the best teams in front of their fans.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Team Betting Trends

Edmonton is 5-5 straight up in its last 10 games away from Rogers Place. The Oilers are just 3-7 against the puck line in those games. Meanwhile, the Senators have gone 6-4 straight up and 4-6 against the puck line in their last 10 home games.
Ottawa is 7-3 to the over in its last 10 home games, and there’s a historical factor here, as these two teams have combined for seven or more goals in 10 out of their last 19 meetings dating back to the start of the 2017 season. That’s why the total is set at 6.5 and the over is priced at -150. If the total were 7, it would be around even money because there’s probably less than a 50 percent chance that we’ll see more than 7 goals.
The Senators are 8-7-1 to the under in games where they are a home underdog so far this season.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Brady Tkachuk leads the way with five goals and four assists in Ottawa’s last 10 games, but what’s most impressive is his shot count. Tkachuk has registered 52 shots on goal over the last 10 games. He is listed at +115 to score a goal and his shots on goal prop is set at 4.5 (over +110).
Jakob Chychrun has just one point in his last 10 games but he ranks second on the team in shots on goal during that stretch. Chychrun’s shots on goal prop is set at 2.5 (over -118).
Tim Stutzle also has nine points (three goals) in his last 10 games, and he’s averaged three shots per game in that stretch. Stutzle is listed at +100 to go over 2.5 shots and -139 to go under that mark.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman have each registered 37 shots on goal in their last 10 games. McDavid and Hyman are both listed at 3.5 shots on goal, over -110. Draisaitl’s shots on goal prop is listed at 2.5, over -163. All three players are also listed at +110 to score a goal.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Both teams rank among the top-10 teams in the league when it comes to scoring first period goals, but Ottawa ranks among the worst teams in first-period goals against. The Oilers haven’t been great at keeping pucks out of their own goal in the first period overall, but they have been good at preventing first period goals on the road.

That said, I think it’s asking a lot from Calvin Picard, who had to relieve Stuart Skinner on Saturday. Besides, betting on Edmonton to win the first period outright only pays $1.20 for every $1 wagered, and I’d lean more towards betting on both teams to score in the first period at +130 odds instead.