NHL Betting Preview (March 26): Oilers vs. Jets Odds

Photo credit:Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

3 months ago

Edmonton will look to end a disappointing three-game road trip on a high note in Winnipeg on Tuesday. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this Western Conference game intriguing from a betting perspective.

Oilers vs. Jets Odds

Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -125
Winnipeg Jets Moneyline Odds: +105
Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+185), Jets +1.5 (-240)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +105, under -125)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

These two teams last met back on Nov. 30th in Winnipeg. The Jets opened the scoring on a Cole Perfetti goal, assisted by Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor and took a 1-0 lead into the first intermission. However, Edmonton would strike twice in the latter half of the third period, which put them ahead by one goal. Winnipeg tried to even things up by pulling Connor Hellebuyck for an extra attacker, but Edmonton scored into the empty net to secure the victory. The Oilers outshot the Jets 39-26. Stuart Skinner made 25 saves in the win.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Tuesday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Oilers (42-27 SU, 32-37 ATS, 30-36 O/U)

This game opened as a pick ‘em, with both Edmonton and Winnipeg listed at -110 on the moneyline, but the Oilers are now a -125 favourite. So, while oddsmakers viewed this as a 50-50 matchup, enough bettors felt that there was value on the OIlers at those odds to warrant a wager.

Edmonton has performed poorly as road favourites this season, though, going 16-13. That might be good enough for the average fan, but from a betting perspective, it’s important. The Oilers have won games in which they have been a road favourite at 55 percent clip, but their average odds were closer to 64 percent. As a result, if a bettor had placed a $100 bet on the Oilers to win each of those games, they’d be down $374 year-to-date.

The Oilers haven’t been good against the spread, either. Edmonton has only covered the puck line (-1.5 goals) approximately in 38 percent of the games in which they have been road favourites versus average odds of around 43 percent. In other words, the majority of the games have been decided by one goal, one way or the other.

Handicapping the Jets (44-27 SU, 37-34 ATS, 28-36 O/U)

Winnipeg has been one of the best bets on home ice this season, but only as the favourite. The Jets are 21-6 as home favourites, but they’re just 2-5 as home underdogs this season for -2.72 units. This includes a 3-1 loss to the Oilers in November, when Edmonton closed at -113 on the moneyline. The Oilers rank as the No. 2 team according to the betting market, but neither team has a rest advantage, and that means the Jets should have a slight edge as the home team. That’s not enough to make Winnipeg a favourite, but the home team has won 54.3 percent of the games in which they have equal rest. The Jets have gone 12-7 on equal rest as the good guys, while the Oilers have a 10-10 record as the road team when both teams have had equal rest.

Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t had much success against Edmonton, going 13-13-2 in his career, but he’s the Vezina Trophy favourite for a reason. Per Evolving Hockey, Hellebuyck ranks first in goals saved above expected. On a per 60-minute basis, Hellebuyck has saved the Jets approximately 0.68 goals, while Stuart Skinner has only saved the Oilers about .23 goals per 60 minutes. In other words, Winnipeg should have a big edge in goal. However, what should concern potential Winnipeg backers is that the Jets have looked mediocre over the last couple of months. Per Evolving Hockey, Winnipeg ranks 12th in 5-on-5 expected goals, but 21st in all situations since the start of February.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Team Betting Trends

Edmonton is 5-5 straight up in its last 10 road games and they went 3-7 against the puck line. Meanwhile, the Jets are 7-3 in their last 10 home games, but they have struggled to cover the puck line, too. Winnipeg is 4-6 against the puck line over their last 10 home games.
Both teams have gone 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games overall, but the Jets are 5-5 against the puck line, while the Oilers have only covered in three out of their last 10 games.
The Oilers are 4-6 straight up in their last 10 games versus the Jets, and they’re 5-5 straight up and 5-5 against the puck line in their last 10 games at Winnipeg.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Kyle Connor has scored four goals in his last 10 games, while Mark Scheifele and Tyler Toffoli have each scored four goals in nine and eight games respectively. Connor is listed at +162 to score a goal, while Scheifele and Toffoli are both listed at +200.
Josh Morrissey has scored seven assists in his last 10 games, while Sean Monahan has registered six assists in his last 10 games. Morrissey is listed at +105 to register an assist. Monahan is listed at +162.
Evan Bouchard has registered 14 assists in his last 10 games. Bouchard is listed at -105 to register an apple on Tuesday. He is listed at +375 to score two-plus assists, though.
Only Connor McDavid has more assists (17) in the last 10 games than Bouchard and he is listed at -250 to score one assist, and +162 to score two assists or more.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Edmonton should be looking to put forth a better defensive effort after allowing 11 goals in the first two games of this three-game road trip, and Betway actually has a good price on under 6 goals. In fact, under 6.5 goals (-125) is currently the best price available in the betting market. Some sportsbooks are offering under 6 -110, and paying just 15 cents more to bet under 6.5 instead is a good strategy given that this matchup has trended toward the under in recent years.

Bet under 6.5 goals at -125 odds.