NHL Betting Preview (March 30th): Ducks vs. Oilers Odds

Photo credit:© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

3 months ago

After dismantling the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday, the Oilers are huge favourites to take down the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday. This article will break down the odds and trends that make this Pacific Division matchup interesting, from a betting perspective.

Ducks vs. Oilers Odds

Anaheim Ducks Moneyline Odds: +450
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -600
Puck Line Odds: Ducks +1.5 (+190), Oilers -1.5 (-250)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -105, under -115)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

Edmonton played the Ducks in Anaheim on February 9th, just one game after having their 16-game win streak snapped by the Vegas Golden Knights. The Oilers won the game 5-3, but they actually had to come from behind three times in the game before scoring three unanswered goals in the third period to complete the comeback. Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman both scored, but Evander Kane (hattrick) and Connor McDavid (three assists) led the way. Edmonton outshot the Ducks 32-27.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Saturday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Ducks (24-49 SU, 36-37 ATS, 33-36 O/U)

Anaheim has lost 10 of its last 11 games and finds itself in 30th place overall. Per Evolving Hockey, no team ranks worse in expected goals (all situations) than the Ducks since the start of January. In other words, this might be the worst team in the league.

The Ducks matchup horribly against the Oilers, too. Edmonton’s defeated Anaheim three times already this season, and each time the score was lopsided. The Oilers won 8-2 on Nov. 26th, 7-3 on Dec. 31st, and 5-3 back on Feb. 9th. Not to mention, no team has scored fewer goals per 60 minutes than Anaheim has since the start of February. In fact, they have scored two or fewer goals in 12 of their last 13 games.

Handicapping the Oilers (44-27 SU, 33-38 ATS, 31-37 O/U)

Edmonton’s moneyline odds are currently listed at -649. That’s an implied probability of 86.65 percent and that makes the Oilers the biggest moneyline favourite year-to-date. It’s just the second time Edmonton’s moneyline odds have been greater than -500.

The Oilers have outscored the Ducks 20-7 in three games this season, including an 8-2 victory at Rogers Place back on Nov. 26th. The Oilers’ moneyline odds closed at -300 in that game, but the gap has clearly widened and sportsbooks know this. The current odds basically reflect the fact that Edmonton has won nine of its last 10 games against the Ducks dating back to the start of the 2021-22 regular season. The Oilers are 12-1 in home games in which their moneyline odds are -200 or more. Edmonton’s lone loss as a big home favourite came in the home opener, and they’ve been perfect ever since.

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Team Betting Trends

The Oilers are 6-0 at home when they have moneyline odds of -300 or more and they have an average goal differential of 3.5 in those games.
Anaheim is 6-1 as the road team when facing off against a moneyline favourite of -300 or more. Their lone win in this situation came on Jan. 15th when they closed as a +308 underdog in Florida.
Edmonton has covered the puck line (-1.5) in eight out of its last 10 meetings against the Ducks and eight out of the last 10 matchups have featured at least seven goals. The Oilers have scored at least five goals in seven out of the last 10 meetings, while the Ducks have scored two or fewer in five out of their last six meetings against the Oilers.
Edmonton is 7-3 straight up in its last 10 home games. The Ducks are 2-8 straight up in their last 10 road games, and 0-10 straight up in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Connor McDavid leads the way with 22 points in his last 10 games. McDavid has scored four goals during that stretch. McDavid has six goals and 24 points in his last 10 games versus Anaheim, including eight multi-point performances. McDavid is listed at -125 to score a goal and -150 to score 2-plus points.
Zach Hyman has eight goals in his last 10 games. Hyman has scored in each of his last six games versus the Ducks. He is listed at -125 to score a goal.
Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals in his last 10 games against the Ducks. Draisaitl is listed at -106 to score a goal on Saturday.
Troy Terry has just two goals and one assist in his last 10 games.
Ryan Strome has no points in his last 10 games, while his linemate, Frank Vatrano, has just one goal in his last 10 games. Trevor Zegras is also on the line, and he hasn’t recorded a point in two games since returning to the lineup.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Edmonton’s team total is set at 4.5 and the over is priced at -110, which seems reasonable based on how the Oilers have dominated this matchup with their offensive power. However, there are other ways to handicap this. For example, there’s a market called ‘1st Period – Win/Draw/Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals’ that bettors can find listed under the first period tab at Betway.

Bet on the Edmonton Oilers to win the first period and over 1.5 total first period goals at +175.