NHL Betting Preview (March 7): Oilers at Blue Jackets Odds
1 month ago
Edmonton will look to win their fifth game in a row on Tuesday when they face the Boston Bruins, who are fresh off a 4-1 victory over the surging Toronto Maple Leafs. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make up this matchup.
Oilers at Blue Jackets Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -250
- Columbus Blue Jackets Moneyline Odds: +200
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (-110), Blue Jackets +1.5 (-115)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -140, under +110)
All odds courtesy of Betway.
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Last Matchup
Edmonton and Columbus last met on January 23rd at Rogers Place, and the Oilers skated away with a 4-1 victory after coming into the game as a -351 moneyline favourite. They didn’t necessarily play their best hockey, though. Columbus owned 60% of the shot attempts through the first 40 minutes and the game was tied until the Oilers took a 2-1 lead with about 15 minutes remaining in the third period.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the starting lineups and goaltenders.
Handicapping the Oilers (38-22 SU, 29-31 ATS, 26-31 O/U)
Edmonton lost eight of its first 10 road games to start the season, so they haven’t been a profitable as the away team year-to-date, but they’ve performed up to expectations as big big road favourites (-200 or more) so far this season, going 6-2 straight up. However, a bettor that wagered $100 on the Oilers to win each of those eight games would have only made approximately $56 in profit, according to my records.
Meanwhile, betting $100 on the Oilers to cover the puck line (-1.5) in all eight of those games would’ve cost a bettor approximately $50, while betting on the Oilers to win in regulation in all eight games would have cost resulted in a small net loss, too. In other words, betting on big favourites is not a viable long term strategy, as it is very tough to win at the rate needed to breakeven, let alone win money.
In fact, if a bettor had wagered $100 on Columbus every time they faced off against a big road favourite (-200 or more) this season they’d have made approximately $356 despite only going 5-7 straight up in those games. Edmonton is the best team in the league, but even if they are coming out on top of most of these lopsided matchups, bettors are not.
Handicapping the Blue Jackets (21-41 SU, 35-27 ATS, 31-28 O/U)
Although they’ve been a feisty home underdog this season, the Blue Jackets have been all over North America since they visited the Oilers on January 23rd. Columbus has played 12 of their last 17 games on the road, and Thursday’s game against the Oilers will be their sixth game in nine days. They’ve been solid at 5-on-5, ranking 13th in expected goals percentage per Evolving Hockey, but only five teams have allowed more goals per 60 minutes in all situations since the start of February.
Take the last game against Edmonton. The Blue Jackets had three days’ rest heading into that tilt, and they played well. It still wasn’t enough to beat the Oilers, or cover the puck line. Not to mention, it likely won’t be Elvis Merzlikins in goal on Thursday, as he has missed the last two games due to injury, and Daniil Tarasov and Jet Greaves haven’t been as good. It’s hockey, and every team has a chance on any given night, but even with Calvin Picard between the pipes, it’s going to be tough for Columbus to withstand Edmonton’s firepower.
PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Team Betting Trends
- Columbus is 17-13-1 to the under in home games this season, but there’s a trend here that applies to this game. Eight out of the 12 games where the Blue Jackets have faced off against a big road favourite (-200 or more) have featured seven or more goals and that has resulted in a 7-3-1 record to the over. Oddsmakers are fully aware of this, though, which is evident by the fact that the game total is currently set at 6.5, and the odds are shaded heavily toward the over at -140. It’s very close to becoming a game where you would see a total of seven, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.
- As of March 5th, there have been 76 games with a total of seven, and they have gone 26-36-14 to the over. Based on these probabilities it can be assumed that a game with a total of seven will go under almost half the time, and more than 18 percent of those games have landed on seven goals exactly. In other words, these games go under or push around 65 percent of the time, and -150 is a steep price to pay on an NHL total.
- The Blue Jackets are 3-7 straight up in their last 10 home games, but 5-5 against the puck line. The Blue Jackets have gone 6-3-1 to the under during that stretch. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games versus the Oilers.
- Edmonton is 7-3 straight up in its last 10 games, but just 4-6 against the puck line. The Oilers are also 7-3 in their last 10 games away from home, but once again, just 4-6 against the puck line.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Zach Hyman (10) and Leon Draisaitl (6) have combined for almost as many goals as the rest of the Oilers combined (21) over the last 10 games. They scored the only goals in Edmonton’s 2-1 win over the Bruins. Both players are priced at +115 to score a goal on Thursday.
- Blue Jackets’ forward Jack Roslovic has scored two goals and nine assists in his last 10 games. He also leads the Blue Jackets in shots on goal during that stretch with 33. He is priced at +105 to score a single point in the game. Roslovic’s shot total is set at 1.5 (over -182) and he’s registered two or more shots in 11 straight games.
- I’d like to bet on Ryan McLeod to score, now that he’s moved up to the second line with Leon Draisaitl, but unfortunately Betway isn’t currently offering odds on an anytime goal.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
This game should feature some scoring, and Edmonton should do most of it. That said, the Oilers’ team total is set at 4.5. and Columbus has only allowed five-plus goals in six out of 31 home games this season, while the Oilers have only scored five or more goals in six out of 30 road games. Scoring five goals is tough, but Edmonton has managed to do it in four of the eight road games in which their odds were -200 or more.
Bet Edmonton Oilers Team Total Over 4.5 Goals (+130)
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