NHL Betting Preview (March 9): Oilers at Sabres Odds
1 month ago
The Oilers are in Buffalo looking for a bounce-back win over the Sabres after a 4-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday. This article looks at the odds and trends that make this interconference matchup so intriguing.
Oilers at Sabres Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -190
- Buffalo Sabres Odds: +160
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+115), Sabres +1.5 (-150)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -110, under -110)
All odds courtesy of Betway.
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Last Matchup
Edmonton defeated the Sabres 3-2 in Buffalo on March 6th, 2023, so it’s been a little over a year since the two teams last met. Connor McDavid put on a show for his fans in the area, scoring two goals against goaltender Craig Anderson, including the game winner. It was a high-paced game that featured 76 shots on goal, as the Sabres outshot the Oilers 39-37, but Stuart Skinner made 37 saves to help Edmonton secure the win.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Saturday’s matchup.
Handicapping the Oilers (38-23 SU, 29-32 ATS, 26-32 O/U)
Edmonton usually lives up to the expectations of the betting market when it’s listed as a big favourite, but they didn’t play up to their -275 odds in Columbus on Thursday. The Oilers will likely get back in the win column on Saturday, as they are -190 heading into their game versus the Sabres, but betting on the Oilers when they’re a big road favourite has not been a profitable strategy. Edmonton is 6-3 as the road team when its moneyline odds are -190 or higher, but if a bettor had placed a $100 moneyline bet on Edmonton in each of those games, they’d be down approximately $191 year-to-date.
In fact, simply betting $100 on Edmonton in every game that they have been a road favourite in this season would have resulted in a net loss of $215 despite the fact the Oilers have gone 14-10 in those games. In other words, not even a team as good as the Oilers can win at a high enough rate to overcome their odds on a regular basis. Also, with the Penguins on deck on Sunday, there’s a chance that Calvin Pickard could be back in goal for the Oilers. Sharp gamblers aren’t lining up to lay -190 on a team who may or may not start their backup goaltender on the road again.
Handicapping the Sabres (29-35 SU, 35-29 ATS, 25-37 O/U)
The Sabres have lost three games in a row, but they’ve gone 7-8 straight up in the 15 games since the All-Star break and that’s good considering where this team is at. Of course, Buffalo has only been this big of an underdog on home ice once so far this season, and surprisingly, they beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-0 in that game. However, the Sabers have not performed well as home underdogs, winning just one out of the seven games with +130 odds or worse. The last time Buffalo was a home underdog of +150 or more, they lost 4-0 to the Florida Panthers.
Not to mention, the Sabres traded away one of their better forwards in Casey Mittelstadt, who had 47 points in 62 games, and they also dealt captain Kyle Okposo to the Panthers for a prospect and some picks. That’s a tough look for a team that already ranks 25th on offense this season, and given that the Sabres have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league, one would expect them to fall to a lower place in the standings.
And, if there’s one thing that Buffalo does have going for them, it’s goaltending. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been fantastic, currently ranking sixth in goals saved above expected (per Evolving Hockey), and he has proven to be a difference maker before. Buffalo would have an apparent edge in goal if it’s UPL against Pickard.
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Team Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 4-6 straight up in its last 10 games on home ice. The Sabres have gone 5-5 against the puck line and 6-4 to the under in that sample. Buffalo is 6-4 straight up against Edmonton in its last 10 games and 7-3 to the under.
- The Oilers are 6-4 in their last 10 games away from Rogers Place, but they’ve only covered the puck line in four of those games. Edmonton is 6-4 to the under in its last 10 road games. The Oilers are 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games in Buffalo.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Sabres’ forward Dylan Cozens has registered three goals and four assists over his last outings and he ranked third on the team in shots on goal during that stretch with 23. Cozens has three goals and an assist in four games versus Edmonton in his career. He is +275 to score a goal.
- Owen Power has also potted three goals (six points) in his last 10 games, but his time on ice is going to take a hit now that the Sabres have acquired Byram. Power ranked second behind Rasmus Dahlin in time on ice on the power play, but now Byram is on the top unit. Byram registered three shots on goal and scored a power play goal in his Sabres’ debut. Byram is +550 to score a goal.
- With 11 goals in his last 10 games, Zach Hyman is not up to 43 goals in 60 games. Hyman is listed at +110 to score a goal on Saturday. Hyman has just one assist in his last 10 games.
- Leon Draisaitl has six goals and 10 assists in his last 10 games. He is listed at +120 to score a goal and -333 to score a point. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid, who has two goals and 17 assists in his last 10 games, is -599 to score a point. McDavid is listed at +115 to score a goal.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
After starting so poorly in Columbus, the Oilers should be focused on starting Saturday’s game off on the right foot. Edmonton should be able to get the jump on the Sabres, too, as only one team has scored fewer first period goals than the Sabres, and no team has allowed more first period goals. Betting on Edmonton to cover the first period puck line (-0.5 goals) is worth considering, but bettors can also bet on the first period winner and the total number of goals scored. Bet on Edmonton to outscore the Sabres in the opening frame, combined with over 1.5 first-period goals for +275.
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