NHL Betting Preview (May 10): Oilers vs. Canucks Game 2 Odds
2 months ago
Edmonton finally broke their six-game losing streak in Game 1 against Los Angeles. But after blowing a 4-1 lead against the Vancouver Canucks in Game 1 of the second round, the Oilers find themselves needing to bounce back once again in Game 2. This article analyzes the odds and trends that make this matchup interesting, from a betting perspective.
Oilers vs. Canucks Game 2 Odds
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline Odds: -125
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: +105
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+190), Canucks +1.5 (-230)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -120, under +100)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Oilers vs. Canucks Series Odds Update
There might be some panic in Oilersnation but the betting market still believes. Edmonton is still a -135 series favourite against the Canucks (+115), despite losing Game 1. Also, the Oilers have the second-best Stanley Cup odds (+400), behind the New York Rangers, who are one win away from the Eastern Conference final. Edmonton is also the favourite to win the Western Conference, for now. Meanwhile, Vancouver’s odds of winning the Stanley Cup sit at 11/1.
Handicapping the Oilers (53-35 SU, 40-48 ATS, 40-45 OU)
Edmonton played a perfect opening 20 minutes at Rogers Arena on Wednesday. Similar to how they opened Game 1 at home versus the Kings. However, the Oilers were not able to match the Canucks pace in the final 40 minutes. Edmonton was focused on holding the lead instead of extending it, and as a result, the Oilers generated just 28 shot attempts (eight shots on goal) in the second and third period. Edmonton scored four goals on 18 shots, despite only generating five high danger shots, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Therefore, Game 1 was a missed opportunity for the Oilers. I mean, would there have been a comeback if the Oilers had shown even a little bit of resiliency in the final frame? Probably not. Per Evolving Hockey, Edmonton finished the game with a 39.5 percent share of expected goals at even strength. It stands as their second worst performance of the season next to their 1-0 win in Game 4 of the first round when they generated just 13 shots on goal. And, maybe that’s the problem. Edmonton didn’t deserve to win that game, and now they might think that’s the blueprint for success.
If so, the Oilers are focusing too much on the result, and not enough on the process. They can’t really think that relying on Stuart Skinner for 40 minutes is a good plan, can they? I hope not. Skinner seemingly can’t go more than a few games without blowing up, and any objective observer would classify allowing five even-strength goals as a blow up. It’s not like the Oilers have another option, so they’ve got to be relentless with their attack. Edmonton doesn’t want this series to extend long enough for star goalie Thatcher Demko to return and make an impact. Demko has been ruled out through at least Game 4.
Handicapping the Canucks (55-34 SU, 47-42 ATS, 44-41 O/U)
Vancouver showed a lot of composure in Game 1. The Canucks could have easily folded, down 4-1, but they worked hard, dominating 5-on-5 play, and outscored Edmonton 5-3 at even strength. Scoring four-plus goals at even strength isn’t easy, and it’s not something the Canucks did often in the second half of the season. In fact, Game 1 marks the sixth time Vancouver has scored four-plus even strength goals since the midway point of the regular season, including playoffs. Then again, the Canucks did have the best even-strength shooting percentage in the league through the first 41 games of the regular season.
However, don’t bet on Edmonton receiving just one power play opportunity on average, though. The Canucks and Oilers were among the most penalized teams during the regular season, and Vancouver is going to have to fix its power play if it wants to have continued success in this series. The Canucks went 0-3 with the man advantage in Game 1, and are now 2-16 (12.5 percent) in the playoffs. Edmonton, meanwhile, cashed in on their only power play opportunity of the game. The Oilers are 10-21 (47.6 percent) in the playoffs, which is about 10 percentage points better than the next best team. The Canucks were disciplined in Game 1, but what happens when they’re not?
Silovs hasn’t faced more than 30 shots in a game this season, including playoffs, and Edmonton will almost certainly test him more in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. Vancouver ranked among the top-10 teams when it came to preventing shots against, but so did the Kings. Edmonton also ranked top-10 in shots against (per 60), but the Oilers finished the regular season averaging the most shots per game and they generated roughly 31 shots per 60 in round one against Los Angeles. Not to mention, there’s a good chance that Edmonton sees more time on the power play. There’s really no better time for Elias Pettersson to step up. He finished Game 1 with three shots on goal, but he didn’t register a point and still hasn’t scored in the playoffs.
PRESENTED BY BET365
Team Betting Trends
- Edmonton has allowed four-plus goals in eight out of its last 13 playoff games dating back to Game 6 of their first round series versus Los Angeles in 2023. Stuart Skinner has allowed three-plus goals in 13 of 18 playoff games.
- Game 1 marked the second time the Canucks allowed more than three goals in the postseason. Vancouver allowed four goals in Game 2 against Nashville.
- In seven out of the last eight Oilers’ playoff games, at least seven goals have been scored. Since 2022, only three out of Edmonton’s 18 playoff games have featured a combined score of fewer than six goals.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Connor McDavid played 24:03 in Game 1. The Oilers’ captain registered an assist, but he did not register a shot on goal in the game. McDavid has had three multi-point games this postseason, but he has not had back-to-back multi-point games yet in the playoffs. McDavid is priced at +140 to score a goal in Game 2.
- Leon Draisaitl played just 16:43 in Game 1 due to what head coach Kris Knoblauch described as a cramping issue. Draisaitl still managed to register two assists in the game, and the injury is not believed to be long term. He has picked up two or more points in six of his last seven playoff games. Draisaitl is listed at +140 to score a goal in Game 2.
- Zach Hyman lit the lamp twice in Game 1, which means he is now tied for the playoff lead with nine goals in six games. Hyman has registered at least four shots in four out of six games so far and he is listed at +120 to score a goal in Game 2.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Edmonton closed as a -135 favourite in Game 1, but the Oilers are down to -125 heading into Game 2. This isn’t a must-win game, but it probably feels like it for Edmonton, and the moneyline odds are slightly more attractive than the series odds (-135). There’s probably some value betting on Warren Foegele to score a goal at +350 odds, too, considering he’s been moved up to the top line with McDavid and Hyman. Foegele scored as many even strength goals as Leon Draisaitl did in the regular season, despite playing almost 300 fewer minutes. Bet on Foegele to score an anytime goal at +350 odds in addition to backing the Oilers to win Game 2 at -125 odds.
GAME DAY ARTICLE PRESENTED BY BET365
Recent articles from Andrew MacNeil
